Celtics fans will love these historical trends in Game 5 vs. originally appeared in NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Celtics need to win one more game to eliminate the Miami Heat from the 2024 NBA playoffs and advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals.
Eliminating the Heat is always difficult, and the Celtics know that better than anyone. The Heat are a well-coached team that plays hard and never gives up. But history is firmly on the side of the Celtics, who take 3-1 series lead in Wednesday night’s Game 5 at TD Garden.
Teams that lead a best-of-7 series 3-1 win the series 95.4 percent of the time (269-13 record), according to NBC Sports Boston Celtics statistician Dick Lipe. The Celtics have never lost a series when up 3-1 (28-0 record) and have only needed Game 7 twice.
Here’s a look at the results of the Celtics’ 28th series, in which they held a 3-1 lead.
-
Won in 5: 17 times
-
Won in 6: Nine
-
Won in 7: Twice
-
Lost series:zero
The Heat are 1-6 all-time in best-of-7 series, during which they trail 3-1. Miami’s only victory came in the 1997 Eastern Conference semifinals against the New York Knicks — a series that included multiple suspensions stemming from a Game 5 fight.
The Heat have lost in Game 5 in five of the seven series in which they have lost 3-1.
The last team to come back from a 3-1 series deficit was the Denver Nuggets, who did so twice in the 2020 COVID-19 bubble playoffs (first round vs. Jazz and second round vs. Clippers).
If there’s one potential concern about the Celtics, it’s their lack of success at home in the last few playoffs. The C’s are 1-1 at home in this series and have a 12-13 record at home in the playoffs since the start of 2022. The Heat are 6-3 at the Garden in the playoffs since the start of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals.
But without Jimmy Butler or Terry Rozier, the Heat simply don’t have enough offensive firepower to beat the Celtics three straight times. They would go needs to shoot historically well from 3-point range like they did in Game 2 a few more times.
