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When the Los Angeles Lakers faced the Denver Nuggets in the first two games of their first round series, they were constantly reminded of the disadvantage they faced being on the road. “Mile High City” was written on the Nuggets’ Game 1 jerseys, and their Game 2 uniforms boasted “5280” — the number of feet above sea level — in large font.
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“Oh my God, this team needs to move,” said an NBA player Atlético in an anonymous league-wide survey. “The altitude is crazy. I don’t like that at all. Every time I play there, I get tired.”
There is less oxygen at higher altitudes, affecting the resistance of those who are not acclimatized, and the Lakers felt that in this series, especially in the second half. Los Angeles lost all three of its road games, despite winning each of them at halftime.
Their difficulty in playing at Ball Arena is not unique. The Nuggets were 10-1 at home in the 2023 qualifiers on its way to its first title in the franchise’s history.
In fact, Denver’s net rating, or points differential per 100 possessions, has been 8.6 points better at home than on the road since the 1999-00 season. It’s the strongest home-field advantage in the NBA during that span, with the average NBA team only seeing a 6.0-point increase. The Nuggets have had the fourth-best net rating in home games (+5.3) since 2000, despite having the 16th-best net rating on the road (-3.3).
A team that performs approximately 2.6 points per game better than the league average during its home games will see a net rating increase relative to the competition of approximately 1.3 points over the course of a season. Generally, each net rating point leads to about two additional regular season wins. Even through 82 games, it’s a significant jump: The three best teams in the Western Conference in 2023-24 were separated by just one win in the standings.
Several data points suggest that altitude is the determining factor in the Nuggets’ unusually large home court advantage. The team with the second-best advantage by a considerable margin is the Utah Jazz, whose arena is about 4,300 feet above sea level, making them the only other team that plays at an elevation of more than 1,200 feet.
The other evidence is that Denver’s dominance in Colorado extends to other sports. The difference between the Colorado Rockies’ run differential in the Centennial State and elsewhere is more than double the home/away disparity of any other MLB club this century. Using goal differential over the same period, the Colorado Avalanche ranked sixth among NHL franchises. Looking at NFL teams since 1970 to get a larger sample size, the Denver Broncos’ home performance improvement is tied for second-largest.
Travel can also influence. Denver is one of three NBA teams in the Mountain Time Zone. On the other hand, the league’s bottom four teams with home-field advantage — New York, Brooklyn, Boston and Philadelphia — play in the densely populated Northeast region.
Nuggets and Avalanche owner Stan Kroenke only recently capitalized taking advantage of this unique advantage granted to their teams, winning the 2022 Stanley Cup and 2023 NBA Finals after neither team had won a championship in the previous 20 seasons.
Increases in attendance followed, potentially making these teams’ home advantages even stronger now than before. Both the Avalanche and Nuggets have played in packed arenas all season. In 2014-15, the Avalanche ranked 23rd in the NHL and the Nuggets were the least-watched team in the NBA.
An irony: The Nuggets and Avalanche’s rise to the top of their respective leagues, both in performance and home attendance, has come at a time when many Denver fans are unable to watch their team’s games at home, well, in House. Disputes between Altitude Sports (which is owned by Kroenke) and providers Comcast and Dish Network have left viewers without DirecTV, Spectrum TV or Fubo in a local sports blackout for the past five years.
With regular playoff appearances in the Nikola Jokic era, Nuggets fans will at least be able to watch their team on national television during the spring.
Interestingly, however, Jokic teams have not adapted their style of play to their environment in the same way that previous Nuggets teams have. Denver has been in the bottom half of the NBA in terms of pace in each of the last six seasons, with a patient offensive system defined by deliberate player and ball movement at half court.
Compare that to the 1980s Nuggets, who were the NBA’s fastest-paced team for nine consecutive seasons under coach Doug Moe. Likewise, Denver’s pace was in the top six in the league every year from 2004 to 2015 until coach Michael Malone took over and Jokic entered the lineup the following season.
Even so, league players said altitude is still an important factor.
“They’re the defending champions, so they’re going to be tough no matter the altitude,” Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander said, “but the altitude definitely doesn’t help.”
More NBA data nuggets:
–Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA’s most consistent volume scorer… ever
–3-point shooting has never been more important in the NBA
–NBA postseason play really is different
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