Celtics vs. Cavs Second Round Playoff Preview, Odds, and Predictions originally appeared in NBC Sports Boston
The Boston Celtics exorcised some recent playoff demons by dispatching the Miami Heat in the first round of the 2024 NBA playoffs.
They will have the opportunity to do more exorcises in the second round.
Boston will face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference semifinals after the Cavs defeated the Orlando Magic in Game 7 on Sunday. It is the Celtics’ fourth playoff series against Cleveland in the last 10 years, with the Cavs winning the previous three in 2015, 2017 and 2018.
A lot has changed since then, of course: LeBron James took his talents from Cleveland to Los Angeles, and Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown — cast in starting roles during the 2018 series at ages 19 and 21, respectively — have blossomed into All-Stars for Boston.
The Celtics are the clear favorites this year after a dominant 64-18 regular season, but Kristaps Porzingis’ calf injury – which is he was expected to be sidelined for the entire second round – could complicate their path, while Donovan Mitchell will be eager to play spoiler against what could be his favorite NBA opponent (more on that later).
So how will this happen? Here’s a full series preview with a recap of the teams’ regular season matchups, each team’s winning secrets, and our series prediction.
Series schedule
Here’s a look full Celtics second round schedulewith start times already set for Games 1 to 4.
Tune in to NBC Sports Boston one hour before the start of each game to Celtics pregame livein the interval for Celtics halftime live and immediately after each game to Celtics postgame live.
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Regular season head to head
The Celtics trailed by as many as 15 points early in the teams’ first meeting, but outscored Cleveland in each of the final three quarters to pull out a home victory. Tatum and Brown each scored 25, while all five of Boston’s starters reached double figures in even scoring.
Two nights later, the Celtics again fended off a pesky Cavs team led by Donovan Mitchell (31 points, eight rebounds, six assists), Caris LeVert (26 points) and Darius Garland (19 points). In a near-carbon copy of the previous meeting, all five of the C’s starters scored in double figures, with Tatum (27 points) and Brown (22 points) leading the way.
The Celtics led by 22 points in the fourth quarter and appeared on their way to winning the season series. Then Dean Wade happened.
The Cavs player exploded for 20 points in the fourth quarter, hitting 5-of-5 3-pointers and 7-of-7 field goal attempts to help Cleveland rally for an impressive win despite playing without Mitchell. Tatum had a chance to win the game on the final possession, but missed a last-second jumper as time expired.
All three of Boston’s matchups with the Cavs have been decided by fewer than 10 points, suggesting this could be a much closer series than the first round, where the Celtics led by as many as 27 points in all four wins over Miami.
Tale of the Ribbon
Here’s how the Celtics and Cavs compared in several notable statistical categories during the regular season, with Boston holding the edge in all but one category. (NBA rankings in parentheses.)
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The Celtics will win the series if…
They keep two factors consistent: effort and pace.
The Celtics showed an intriguing lack of the first in Game 2 loss to the Heatbut responded by increasing the defensive intensity in Games 3, 4, and 5. Although the Cavs are much more offensively talented than Miami, the C’s are nearly impossible to beat when they win 50/50 balls and are connected defensively.
On offense, Boston provided a blueprint for success without Porzingis in Game 5 increasing the pace and keeping the ball moving, making 16 of 40 3-point shots and racking up 23 assists with eight players recording multiple helpers.
The Celtics are 43-10 this season when they attempt at least 40 3-pointers and 54-11 when they dish out at least 23 assists. When the ball stopped moving and the pace slowed, that’s when Boston’s offense struggled.
The only positive about Porzingis’ absence is that it should force the Celtics to increase ball movement and increase the pace rather than letting Porzingis go 1-on-1 in the post. If they can replicate what we saw in Game 5 against a less physical Cavs team, a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals awaits them.
The Cavs will win the series if…
Your Big Two becomes the Big Three (or Four).
Mitchell is a postseason stud who has scored 30 or more points in 23 of his 52 career playoff games, including 50 points in Game 6 against the Magic and 39 points in Game 7. He’s also a Celtics killer: his 29.6 points per game against Boston is the most he has scored against any NBA opponent (minimum five games played).
The Celtics’ game plan must start by containing Mitchell and Garland, Cleveland’s second-leading scorer and top assistant. But the Cavs have two players capable of torching the C’s: Caris LeVert and Max Strus.
LeVert dropped 26 points against Boston in December and scored 40 or more points against the Celtics twice in your career. Strus, meanwhile, hit eight 3-pointers in three games against Boston as a member of the Heat to help Miami win the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals.
Mitchell is fully capable of winning at least one game on his own, and if he gets help from his supporting cast, that number could increase.
Another story to monitor: Big man Jarrett Allen, who averaged 17 points and 13.8 rebounds in Games 1-4 against Orlando, has missed the last three games with a rib injury. He and big man Evan Mobley are also excellent defenders, which could make it difficult for Boston to score in the box.
Chances
It’s no secret that the Celtics enter this series as heavy favorites. They are still the favorites to win the NBA title ahead of the Denver Nuggets.
Prediction
Celtics in six.
The Cavs are not the Heat, folks. Mitchell has a proven playoff track record and forms a strong backcourt alongside Garland. Big men Mobley and Allen (if healthy) could give Boston problems on both ends, with Porzingis likely sidelined for the entire series.
The Celtics are title favorites for a reason. They are immensely talented on both sides – Derrick White’s emergence as Boston’s third-leading scorer is a game-changer offensively – and has shown impressive focus and maturity in their three straight wins over a troubled Heat team in the first round.
Mitchell can put the Cavs on their backs in one game, and the C’s can go cold from beyond the arc in another. But the Celtics are too good for this series to last more than six games.
