This is part of a series of NBA Data Nuggets that will be published each week during the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
Last month, We wrote about how making threes has never been a more important prerequisite for winning in the NBA than this regular season. Fourteen of the 16 playoff teams in 2024 were in the top half of the league in 3-point shooting percentage, and the top two seeds knocked down long balls at the two highest clips.
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The impact of shooting has carried over to the 2024 NBA Playoffs. As of May 16, teams with a higher 3-point shooting percentage than their opponents in games are 49-13 in the postseason, which represents a 79% winning percentage.
Research has shown that defenses have relatively little influence on opponents’ outside shooting percentages (at least compared to shots closer to the basket). It is important, when analyzing the playoffs, therefore, to record this number on the scoreboard before jumping to conclusions.
Jamal Murray’s improving health and a change in Aaron Gordon’s role contributed to the Denver Nuggets’ turnaround after losing their first two home games to the Minnesota Timberwolves, but shooting also played a role. In Games 3, 4 and 5, Denver knocked down 22 of its 46 open threes, compared to just nine of 39 for Minnesota.
The last recent example of shot variation in a series was the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals. The eighth-seeded Miami Heat jumped out to a surprising 3-0 series lead against the Boston Celtics, with the Heat making an impressive 48% of their shots. three and the Celtics shooting an uncharacteristically low 29%. When those percentages were regressed to their respective averages, the Celtics rattled off three straight wins to tie the series at 3-3 before Miami made 14 of their 28 threes in Game 7 to advance to the Finals.
Even compared to other important statistical categories, 3-point shooting is a strong predictor of playoff outcomes. For example, teams that get a higher percentage of offensive rebounds than their opponents are 43-20 in the postseason – not that strong a correlation.
Shot variation generally has a greater impact on the score than more important factors such as officiating. After all, teams rewarded with more free throws per field goal attempt than their opponents actually have a losing record (27-36) in the playoffs thus far. Instead of blaming referees when their teams lose, perhaps coaches should tell their players to take more shots.
More NBA data nuggets:
–Altitude gives Nuggets rare advantage on NBA home court
–Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA’s most consistent volume scorer… ever
–NBA postseason play really is different
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