Celtics-Pacers Eastern Conference Finals Preview, Odds and Predictions

Celtics-Pacers Eastern Conference Finals Preview, Odds and Predictions originally appeared in NBC Sports Boston

The Eastern Conference finals matchup is set. The Boston Celtics will face the Indiana Pacers with a spot in the 2024 NBA Finals on the line.

This is the seventh time in playoff history that these teams have faced each other. All six previous series were in the first round, and the Celtics won four of them.

The Celtics will be well-rested entering this series. They eliminated the Cleveland Cavaliers in game 5 of the second round, on May 15th. They will have five days rest before Game 1 on Tuesday. The Pacers needed to overcome a 3–2 series deficit and win Game 7 on the road at Madison Square Garden to eliminate the New York Knicks in the second round.

The C’s are used to this stage and the pressure that comes with it. They are making their sixth conference finals appearance in the last eight years. The Pacers are in the conference finals for the first time since 2014.

The Pacers have some young players playing key roles, led by 24-year-old star Tyrese Haliburton. But this group has some key veterans with a lot of experience.

Myles Turner is in his ninth season. Pascal Siakam is in his eighth campaign and has played in 66 career playoff games. He was one of the Toronto Raptors’ best players during the 2019 championship. Backup point guard TJ McConnell is a nine-year veteran. And coach Rick Carlisle won a title as a player (1986 Celtics) and coached 140 playoff games. He was the head coach of the Dallas Mavericks when they won the 2011 NBA Finals.

The Pacers had no fear in Game 7 at MSG. They were fearless in their run to the championship game of the season. You can bet they won’t be afraid of the Celtics either.

Both teams are close to full strength. The Pacers have no significant injuries. The Celts reportedly won’t have Kristaps Porzingis to start the series.

Here’s our full conference finals preview, including a series preview.

Series schedule

The Eastern Conference Finals begin Tuesday in Boston. There is only one rest day between each game.

!function()”use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a)if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”])var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r[r].contentWindow===a.source)var i=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;e[r].style.height=i))();

Regular season head to head

January 8th in Indiana: Pacers 133, Celtics 131

January 30th in Boston: Celtics 129, Pacers 124

Tale of the Ribbon

!function()”use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a)if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”])var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r[r].contentWindow===a.source)var i=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;e[r].style.height=i))();

The Celtics will win the series if…

They shut down Tyrese Haliburton.

There are many ways the Celtics can win this series, but taking out the Pacers’ best player and best playmaker is a good way to start. Haliburton didn’t play well against the Celtics in the regular season.

!function()”use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a)if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”])var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r[r].contentWindow===a.source)var i=a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”;e[r].style.height=i))();

The Pacers have lost five playoff games so far. Haliburton averaged just 15.6 points and 7.2 assists in those losses.

The star point guard is not an elite scorer, but he has the potential to dominate offensively if not defended at a high level. Haliburton dropped 26 points on 10-of-17 shooting (6-of-12 from 3-point range) in the Pacers’ Game 7 victory over the Knicks. He scored 34 points in Game 2 and 35 points in Game 3.

Haliburton is one of the Pacers’ leading scorers and primary ball handler. If the Celtics can make him uncomfortable and force him to defend, the Pacers’ offense won’t be as effective. Fortunately for the Celtics, they have plenty of top perimeter defenders to put behind Haliburton, including Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Jrue Holiday.

The Pacers will win the series if…

They turn off the lights and win a series of high scores.

Let’s be honest: the Pacers’ defense is pretty bad. But they can score as well as any team in the league, and that’s the path to an upset in this series. Indiana shot 67.1 percent in Game 7 against the Knicks, which set a new single-game playoff record.

The Pacers led the league in points scored (123.3 per game), assists (30.8 per game) and field goal percentage (50.7) during the regular season. They have also been very potent in the playoffs, scoring a league-best 114.2 points per game through two rounds. Indiana also leads the postseason in field goal percentage (50.7) and 3-point percentage (38.1).

The Pacers’ offense also doesn’t rely heavily on one player. Siakam leads the way with 21.1 points per game in the playoffs, but Haliburton (18.8) and Turner (17.5) are also capable of carrying the load. Indiana has seven players averaging more than 10 points per game in the playoffs (Boston has six).

The Celtics are a very good defensive team. But the Pacers still managed to score 116.8 points per game on 46.3 percent shooting in their five faceoffs during the regular season. Indiana also played with excellent pace, averaging 97.2 shots per game.

If the Pacers want to win this series, they will need to step up the pace and score over 115 points per game. It will be a challenge, but it is certainly not an impossible mission for this group.

Chances

Sportsbooks have the Celtics as heavy favorites to win the series.

Prediction

Celtics at five.

The Celtics have the advantage in talent, depth and experience. They also have the advantage of playing at home. The Pacers are not to be taken lightly, but it’s hard to imagine them playing the kind of defense needed to pull off a shocking upset.