Are the Celtics taking advantage of the easy path to the NBA Finals?

Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton’s availability for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals is in question, raising more concerns about the value of the Boston Celtics’ path to the NBA Finals.

If Haliburton’s left hamstring, which sidelined him for a period in January, costs him the rest of the series, the Celtics could face close games against a third consecutive opponent without their best player. Jimmy Butler missed the entirety of the Miami Heat’s five-game first-round loss to Boston. Donovan Mitchell has missed the Cleveland Cavaliers’ last two losses in the five-game Eastern Conference semifinals.

Even if Haliburton is hurt, would this be the easiest path to the NBA Finals?

Not statistically speaking, at least. Boston’s opponents – the Heat (46-36), Cavaliers (48-34) and Pacers (47-35) – have won an average of 47 games. Since the league expanded to its current 16-team format for the 1984 playoffs, 18 NBA finalists have faced a lower average (or equivalent) over three rounds:

18. Los Angeles Lakers in 2020 (46.9)

T15. 2016 Golden State Warriors (46.7), 2001 Philadelphia 76ers (46.7), 1985 Boston Celtics (46.7)

14. 1989 Detroit Pistons (46)

13. 1986 Boston Celtics (45.7)

12. 2003 New Jersey Nets (45.3)

T10. 2007 Cleveland Cavaliers (45), 2002 New Jersey Nets (45)

9. 1995 Orlando Magic (44.7)

8. 1991 Chicago Bulls (44.3)

T6. 2013 Miami Heat (44), 1983-84 Boston Celtics (44)

5. 1988 Los Angeles Lakers (43.7)

T3. 2023 Denver Nuggets (43.3), 1985 Los Angeles Lakers (43.3)

two. 1984 Los Angeles Lakers (40.7)

1. 1987 Los Angeles Lakers (39.3)

Some observations:

• Those years between Michael Jordan’s last dance with the Chicago Bulls and the rise of peak LeBron James were difficult in the East. The 2003 New Jersey Nets won 49 games and faced opponents who won an average of 45.3 games. It’s a wonder they beat the Spurs two games in the NBA Finals.

• The Western Conference during the heyday of Magic Johnson’s 1980s Lakers: Woof.

• It’s hard to analyze injuries, especially since guys in the 1980s played big minutes with broken legs. For example, Larry Drew, starting point guard for the 1984 Kansas City Kings, played all three games of a first-round series against the Lakers in what he later described as “a knee that was only 60% healthy and I was dragging my feet.“No single score can adequately explain these health problems.

• Ten of the 18 teams won the title, so preparation has little to do with the merit of the championship.

• Many of these teams were gigantic. Eleven of them won 62 or more games, including the 1985 Lakers (65-17), 1986 Celtics (67-15), 2013 Heat (66-16) and 2016 Warriors (73-9). They were handing out plenty of regular season losses to their conference brethren and had their way easy.

• The reverse is true for teams on more difficult roads. The eight toughest paths to the NBA Finals include those of the sixth-seeded 1995 Rockets and the fifth-seeded 2020 Heat, two of the four worst seeds ever to reach the title series. Higher seeds face teams with fewer wins; Lower seeds face teams with more wins. So it stands to reason that the 64-win Celtics — who have won 14 more games than any team in the conference — would face an easier schedule. By the way, that list of the most difficult roads:

One or both of this year’s fifth-seeded Mavericks and sixth-seeded Pacers could join the list of the toughest paths to the NBA Finals. While Indiana loses its series to Boston 2-0, Dallas leads the Western Conference Finals by the same margin against the Minnesota Timberwolves after a thrilling Game 2 win.

If the Mavericks win this season, we’ll applaud their difficult road to the ring, but that storyline will be lost to time once we start the legacy-based discussion about The Moment Luka Dončić Officially Arrived.

We generally understand that the West was challenging in the 2000s, but no one is having a meaningful conversation right now about how difficult sledding was for the Lakers of the early 2000s. We talk about the dominance of Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal and of one of the worst officiated games in NBA history – Game 6 of the 2002 Western Conference Finals – and its relationship to the league’s officiating scandal.

Every champion has their story, and there’s a chance that cupcake road will be Boston this season. That will depend on how the Celtics’ path plays out from here. Do the Timberwolves or Mavericks pose a worthy threat in the next round? Could Jayson Tatum capture the Finals MVP convincingly, marking his place in Celtics lore? If Kristaps Porziņģis never gets healthy and Boston still wins, are we having a different health care discussion? What if the Celtics repeat that path, becoming a dynasty of their own?

Programming is the story of Boston right now. It might not be in two weeks. It won’t be in two years, unless they fail to win and this group is still looking for their first title. Then they will be the Eternal Bridesmaid who couldn’t even finish the job when most of the work was done for them by injury and chance.

Here’s what we know at this point: These Celtics are one of the few teams that has never had to face a 50-win opponent on their way to the NBA Finals, and if Haliburton is unable to return, they would be the only ones to beat opponents without their best player on the field in any of the decisive games of the series.

Even more fortunate for them, perhaps, are the injuries that took the Celtics to the Heat, Cavaliers and Pacers. Indiana beat Milwaukee without Giannis Antetokounmpo and New York without half its rotation. Joel Embiid’s knee injury impacted Philadelphia’s standings It is your ability to get out of the first round.

Injuries are part of the process. Nobody remembers that the 1985 Lakers beat the Phoenix Suns without their three best players in the first round, as Bob McAdoo of Los Angeles said. during the series“I’m not going to sit here and get political and say, ‘Oh, they have a great team,’ because they’re without Walter Davis, James Edwards and Larry Nance. Without those players, we should be running away with it.”

An excerpt from a history of UPI in the same Western Conference finals as the Lakers against Denver: “[Alex] English isn’t the only injured Nugget, just the most seriously injured. The others are Calvin Natt, Mike Evans and Lafayette Lever with knee injuries, Dan Issel with a thigh injury and Wayne Cooper with a rib injury.” Finals.

We don’t need to spend decades forgetting the path to a championship. Is anyone arguing that the 2022 Warriors beat the Nuggets without Jamal Murray, the Grizzlies without Ja Morant, and the Mavericks with a diminished Dončić? No, they taught the Celtics a lesson in the NBA Finals and restored their dynasty.

Last year, Denver defeated the Timberwolves without Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid, the Suns without Chris Paul for four games and Deandre Ayton for the clincher, and the Lakers with LeBron James on a foot injury that two doctors apparently said needed surgery. We immediately stamp Nikola Jokić as one of the greatest of all time and his Nuggets as a potential dynasty.

It seems like the only absence we’ve really discussed was Jordan’s in the mid-1990s, when his baseball career opened a championship window for the Rockets. Heck, we even discredited Orlando’s path to the 1995 NBA Finals, even though Jordan was on the court for the entire six-game series. Maybe it’s all mystical.

Maybe it’s just the stories we tell. But a champion is a champion, and Boston will be one if it is one.