Celtics-Mavericks 2024 NBA Finals Preview, Odds and Predictions

Celtics-Mavericks 2024 NBA Finals Preview, Odds and Predictions originally appeared in NBC Sports Boston

The 2024 NBA Finals matchup is set: the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks will face off with the Larry O’Brien Trophy on the line.

The Celtics are in the Finals for the second time in three years after going 12-2 in the Eastern Conference playoffs, including a Indiana Pacers sweep of the conference finals. The Mavericks are back in the Finals for the first time since 2011 after defeating three 50-win teams in the Western Conference playoffs. Dallas eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves in the conference finals in five games.

This series has no shortage of compelling stories. The power of the stars is tremendous. Celtics forward Jayson Tatum and Mavs guard Luka Doncic are two of the five best players in basketball and were both recently voted to the All-NBA First Team. Boston point guard Jaylen Brown is an All-NBA caliber player who is playing the best basketball of his career and was just named the Eastern Conference Finals MVP.

Celtics big man Al Horford is looking for his first championship ring in year 17. Mavericks coach Jason Kidd is trying to become the 13th person to win a title as a player and coach, and would be the sixth to win as a player and coach of the same team.

Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis hasn’t played since game 4 of the first round due to a calf injury. Getting him back into the lineup for the Finals would be a huge boost for the C’s. If Porzingis plays, he should be highly motivated to beat his former team.

And of course, Kyrie Irving’s return to Boston will be a huge topic of discussion in the series. Irving is an elite scorer with experience winning championships. He also played for the Celtics for two seasons in 2017-18 and 2018-19. He left the team as a free agent in 2019, despite telling fans at an event before the 2017-18 campaign that he planned to re-sign. Irving too stepped on the iconic Celtics logo at center court as a player for the Brooklyn Nets in the 2021 playoffs. Even though it’s been five years since Irving left Boston, he’ll still likely be the No. 1 villain for Celtics fans in this series.

Will the Celtics overtake the Lakers to win a league-record 18th championship, or will the Mavericks pull off another comeback and win the franchise’s second title in 14 seasons?

Here’s a full preview of the Celtics-Mavericks matchup.

Series schedule

The NBA Finals begin Thursday, June 6, at the TD Garden in Boston. The Celtics have home-field advantage, which they haven’t had in their last two Finals appearances in 2010 and 2022.

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Regular season head to head

January 22nd in Dallas: Celts 119-110

March 1st in Boston: Celts 138-110

Tale of the Ribbon

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The Celtics will win the series if…

They continue to excel in clutch situations.

Accelerating in the clutch has been a problem for the Celtics at times during the regular season and past playoffs. But that hasn’t been the case in the 2024 playoffs so far. In fact, the Celts was the best clutch team in the league in three rounds.

Boston put on a clutch clinic in the Eastern Conference Finals. The C’s have recorded three wins in their four games against the Pacers, and their stats in clutch moments have been incredibly positive.

Whether it was hitting important shots (like Jaylen Brown’s 3-pointer will force overtime in Game 1) or playing great defense (like Jrue Holiday’s big steal late in Game 3), the Celtics dominated late in games in the conference finals. Holiday played a huge role in Boston’s success on both ends of the court. His experience in the championship is super valuable for this team.

Can the Celtics thrive on the sport’s biggest stage? It will be an important factor in the outcome of the series. The Mavericks have two of the best shooters in the league in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, both of whom are capable of completely taking over when the game is on the line.

The Mavericks will win the series if…

The supporting cast stands out.

Stopping Doncic and Irving will be difficult. They are two of the best offensive players of their generation. They averaged a combined 59.4 points per game in the Western Conference Finals. These two guys will show up.

But who else on the Mavericks will be a consistent offensive threat? Doncic and Irving are the only Mavericks players to average more than 14 points per game in the playoffs.

PJ Washington is an X-factor. He has been inconsistent from beyond the arc in the playoffs. He shot 31.3 percent from 3-point range in the first round, then improved to 46.9 percent in the conference semifinals and dropped to 25 percent in the conference finals. Which Washington will Dallas get in the Finals?

Derrick Jones Jr. scored 22 points in Game 6 against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round. He scored a total of 37 points in five games against the Timberwolves. Maxi Kleber returned to the lineup for Game 4 of the conference finals after missing the previous nine games. He is capable of getting hot from 3-point range.

Daniel Gafford and rookie center Dereck Lively are also capable of scoring more than 10 points on a given night.

The Mavericks need one or more of these players to provide consistent secondary scoring if they want to match the Celtics’ offensive firepower. Boston is the highest scoring team in the playoffs at 111.4 points per game.

Chances

Sportsbooks have the Celtics as favorites to win the series.

Prediction

Celtics in six.

The Celtics have the best starting five in basketball, an elite offense and an elite defense. Boston is capable of beating Dallas without Porzingis, but if the star center returns, the Celtics’ scoring depth and interior defense will be even better.

Not only do the Celtics have home-field advantage, they also dominate on the road. The C’s will carry an eight-game playoff winning streak into Game 1 of the Finals. Boston’s huge improvement in clutch situations is another reason to be optimistic about their chances in this series.

The last four wins are always the toughest, and the Celtics will be under immense pressure to get the job done, especially as favorites. The Celtics have been the better team all season and will finally silence the critics by winning their 18th championship in as many weeks.