2024 NBA Finals Simulation Predicts High-Scoring Celtics-Mavs Series

2024 NBA Finals Simulation Predicts High-Scoring Celtics-Mavs Series originally appeared in NBC Sports Boston

The Boston Celtics are four wins away from becoming the most successful franchise in NBA history. But raising Flag 18 will not be easy.

After dispatching the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics will face the Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks in the 2024 NBA Finals.

The Mavs are led by two game-changing superstars, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but they also boast an underrated supporting cast led by trade deadline pickups PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford and rookie great Dereck Lively II. Since Gafford’s debut in Dallas on March 7, only the Celtics have a better record than the Mavs (28-9).

That said, the Celtics will enter this series as heavy favorites after an NBA-best 64-18 regular season record and a 12-2 record this postseason. Big man Kristaps Porzingis expected to play in Game 1 after losing the team’s last 10 playoff games and should give Boston an immediate boost on both ends of the court.

So what will this series be like? We asked our partners at Strat-O-Matic – who Accurately predicted the Celtics’ regular season record down to the exact game – to simulate the 2024 NBA Finals, with detailed scores and recaps of each game.

Here are the full results of the game-by-game simulation, followed by detailed player statistics from the series:

2024 NBA Finals simulation: game results

Game 1: Celts 135, Mavs 127

Porzingis comes out firing in his first game since April 29, hitting a pair of three-pointers early in the first quarter to help Boston take a double-digit lead.

The Celtics extended their lead to 17 points, but the Mavs came back behind a barrage of buckets from Doncic and Irving and took the lead early in the fourth quarter on a Derrick Jones Jr. 3-pointer.

Boston delivered the game on the line, however, scoring the final 14 points of the contest — including a dagger 3-pointer from Porzingis with 40 seconds remaining — to secure the Game 1 victory.

Porzingis finishes with 21 points, while Tatum and Brown combined for 61 points (36 and 25, respectively) to survive brilliant performances from Doncic (38 points, 15 rebounds and five assists) and Irving (31 points and eight assists).

Game 2: Celts 128, Mavs 124

Celtics fans get some flashbacks to game 2 of the early playoffs in this one, as the Mavs take a 10-point lead midway through the second quarter. But Jrue Holiday helps calm the C’s with eight straight points near the end of the first half, and Derrick White’s 3-pointer helps Boston enter halftime with a two-point lead.

The Celtics hold a two-point lead with less than five minutes remaining when Tatum converts layups on consecutive possessions to put his team up six. Dallas doesn’t get closer than five until the final seconds, with Boston earning another crunch-time victory to take a 2-0 series lead.

Tatum (34 points) and Holiday (24 points) lead the Celtics, while Doncic (35) and Irving (31) are again a two-man show for Dallas.

Game 3: Mavs 115, Celts 108

The Celtics hold firm early in Game 3 as the series comes to Dallas, taking a six-point halftime lead. But the Mavs respond with a 38-point third quarter and add 30 more in the fourth, going on a 19-7 run down the stretch that extends their lead to as many as 13 points with four minutes remaining.

Boston has no answer for Doncic – who had a series-high 43 points, nine rebounds and 10 assists – while Irving scored 24. Brown is the Celtics’ leading scorer with 27 points and Porzingis has 22, but Tatum is limited to 21 points in just 14 pitches.

Game 4: Celtics 118, Mavs 103

The Mavs take a 12-point first-quarter lead and appear poised to tie the series at 2-2 heading back to Boston. But the Celtics mounted a strong response, limiting Dallas to just 13 points in the second quarter and taking a double-digit lead into the third quarter.

The Jays do their job – 26 points from Brown and 24 from Tatum – and Derrick White comes through with 20 points on four 3-pointers, but it’s Boston’s defense that wins this game. Doncic made just 10 of 25 shots for a series-low 26 points and committed three turnovers as the Celtics took a decisive 3-1 series lead with a chance to clinch Banner 18 in Boston.

Game 5: Celtics 123, Mavs 103

Mission Accomplished.

The Mavs stayed close for two quarters before the Celtics sent TD Garden into a frenzy with a 14-0 run late in the third that gave them a 94-77 lead. Boston’s defense once again led the offense, limiting Dallas to just 38 points in the second half and forcing a total of 20 Mavs turnovers.

On the offensive end, Brown scores 31 points on 60 percent shooting (12 of 20), while Tatum (27), White (23) and Porzingis (21) all score 20 points in a fitting end to a dominant season for the Celtics.

Two years after watching the Golden State Warriors celebrate the 2022 championship on their own home field, the C’s get sweet redemption and kick off a Garden Party by securing their NBA-record 18th title in franchise history.

Check out the complete statistics of the simulation players below.

2024 NBA Finals Simulation: Player Stats

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