Will Tatum’s score improve? Five questions heading into Celtics-Mavs Game 3

Will Tatum’s score improve? Five questions heading into Celtics-Mavs Game 3 originally appeared in NBC Sports Boston

Game 3 of the 2024 NBA Finals technically isn’t a must-win matchup for the Dallas Mavericks, but in reality, it’s a game the Western Conference champions can’t afford to lose.

Another loss would put the Mavs in an 0-3 hole against the Boston Celtics. No team has ever won an NBA Finals – or any NBA playoff series – after going down 0-3.

Fortunately for the Mavericks, they are heading home, where they have a 5-3 record in the playoffs. But with the exception of Luka Doncic, virtually every Mavericks player has disappointed in the series so far. The Celtics were content to let Doncic do what he wanted and not let his teammates get into a rhythm.

Boston’s defense held Dallas to under 100 points in each of the first two games at TD Garden. The Mavericks have scored fewer than 100 points just four times in their previous 17 playoff games.

Will the Mavericks be able to make the series interesting or will the Celtics come away with a championship victory?

Here are five key questions to consider heading into Game 3 on Wednesday night.

Can the Mavs find ways to hit more 3-pointers?

The Mavericks averaged 34 3-pointers per game through the first three rounds of the playoffs and made 37.2% of those attempts. But in the Finals, Dallas not only shoots 24.5% from 3-point range, but also takes about seven fewer 3-point shots per game.

The Mavericks made 27 3-pointers in Game 1 and 26 in Game 2. The Celtics, meanwhile, made 40.5 3-pointers per game in the Finals. That difference of 14 attempts from beyond the arc is huge. The C’s don’t need to shoot a crazy percentage when they hit 40+ 3-pointers. The Mavs need to hit a high percentage of their 3s to keep pace if they’re only attempting 27 per game.

So why aren’t the Mavericks attempting enough 3-point shots? Give credit to the Celtics defense. Boston’s ability to protect Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving without doubling down results in fewer open shooters on the perimeter. Previous playoff opponents have doubled down and attacked Doncic, which has often resulted in at least one Mavs player being open behind the arc. Doncic, as a great passer, found these open teammates regularly. Those types of shots simply aren’t available to the Mavs right now.

Mavericks coach Jason Kidd needs to find ways to create more open 3s for his team. This series will end quickly if the Mavs can’t score 100 points, which they haven’t done in two games.

Which players could see minutes at center for the C’s?

The Celtics announced an update on Kristaps Porzingis’ injury on Tuesday afternoon:

C coach Joe Mazzulla called it a “serious injury” and added that “we made the decision to play outside of their control.” Porzingis spoke to the media shortly afterward and said he will do everything he can to play.

The team has not released an official Game 3 injury report as of this writing, but it’s probably fair to assume the Celtics may need to dig deeper into their bench whether Porzingis plays or not.

The easiest way to replace some of Porzingis’ minutes is to give Al Horford more playing time. Horford played 35 minutes or more in five of the 10 games Porzingis missed between Game 4 of the first round and the end of the Eastern Conference Finals. But with Porzingis playing the first two games of the Finals, Horford played just 30 minutes in Game 1 and 28 minutes in Game 2.

Horford is 38 years old, so it would be ideal for the C’s if he played between 28 and 35 minutes. But Horford should have enough in the tank to handle the increased workload over the next two weeks.

In addition to Horford, the C’s could turn to Oshae Brissett, Xavier Tillman or Luke Kornet at center for short stints. We could also see Tatum playing center in small-ball lineups, especially if Dallas center Dereck Lively II isn’t on the court.

Will Jayson Tatum’s scoring and shooting percentages improve?

Much has been made about Tatum’s lack of efficient scoring in the Finals thus far. And to his credit, the superstar striker has found other ways to make a big impact. He nearly had a triple-double in Game 2 with 18 points, 12 assists and nine rebounds. His seven assists in the second quarter of Game 2 were the most in a single quarter during a Finals game since John Stockton in 1998.

The Mavericks double-team and sometimes triple-team Tatum when he drives into the paint, and he’s doing a great job of finding the open man and not settling for bad shots.

The Celtics don’t need Tatum to dominate offensively to win this series, but it would certainly help if he gave them a 30-point game or two. One area where Tatum could show significant improvement is his 3-point shooting. He is making just 28.9% of his 3-pointers in the playoffs and is 4 of 14 in the series (28.6%).

A more efficient Tatum on offense could make the Celtics nearly unbeatable, assuming his elite defensive play continues in Dallas.

Will the Celtics’ dominance on the road continue?

The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the 2024 playoffs and will bring their eight-game playoff winning streak (dating back to the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals) into Game 3 of the Finals. In fact, Boston hasn’t lost on the road since April 9th.

The Celtics don’t dominate offensively away from home, but their defense has been excellent.

Among playoff teams, Boston ranks 3rd in defensive rating on the road, 3rd in defensive rebound percentage on the road, 4th in blocks per game on the road, 2nd in points against offense allowed away from home, #1 in opponent 3-point percentage away from home, and #1 in points allowed per game away from home.

The Celtics have allowed fewer than 100 points in three of their six road playoff games so far. They also excelled in clutch situations in Game 3 and Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Indiana Pacers on the road.

This success on the road isn’t too surprising considering the Celtics won the second most games on the road during the regular season. Entering hostile territory does not faze this group.

Will Kyrie Irving Play Like a Star?

The Mavericks won’t win the series if Irving continues to score less than 20 points per game and shoot a low percentage from the field.

Irving played terrible in Game 1, with 12 points on 6-of-19 shooting. He started Game 2 very well, scoring eight points on 4-of-5 shooting in the first quarter. But he finished with just 16 points on 7-of-18 shooting. He was also 0-for-8 on 3-pointers in the series.

The Mavericks don’t necessarily need Irving to dominate the entire game. If the score is close at the end of Game 3, a five-minute period in which Irving completely takes control offensively – which he is more than capable of doing – could be enough for Dallas to pull out a victory. Irving is one of the best finishers in the sport and won’t be intimidated by a clutch scenario late in a Finals game.

But Doncic can’t beat the Celtics alone. He needs multiple teammates to shoulder much of the scoring load, and one of those players should be Irving. He has yet to score fewer than 20 points in three consecutive games during this playoff run. If that happens on Wednesday, Dallas will be in trouble.

Another issue for Irving is his defense. The Celtics scored 23 points on 9-of-15 shooting when Irving was the leading defender in Game 2. They are shooting 69 percent from the field when Irving is the leading defender in the series overall. He can’t be much of a problem defensively.