No NBA team has recovered from a 3-0 deficit in the playoffs. They are 0-156. Thirteen of the 287 teams (4.5%) that trailed 3–1 went on to win the series. And 57 of the 350 teams (16.3%) that trailed 3-2 won.
This is the ever-widening window of opportunity the Boston Celtics are trying to avoid in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. With Monday night’s victory, the Dallas Mavericks should feel four times more confident in their title shot as they will no longer have to think like the only team trying to come back from a 3-0 deficit. They will just need to become the 58th team to win back-to-back playoff games.
“They’re a desperate team and they’re probably playing a little bit looser,” said Al Horford, whose Celtics lost 3-0 in the 2023 Eastern Conference final to force Game 7. “We know what that mentality is like.”
There It is a freedom in knowing that there is no room for mistakes. The Mavericks have no choice but to give their all on every possession, because one mistake could mean the end of all their championship hopes.
“I think what helps is we were in that situation the last game,” Dallas coach Jason Kidd said. “So we shouldn’t change or deviate from what we talked about in Game 4. Take each possession, one possession at a time, and hopefully we can win every quarter. We ended up doing that. The same thing we’re talking about today and tomorrow We can only focus on Game 5 and try to find a way to win here.”
Try as they might, the Celtics don’t have the same mentality.
“We would love to win tomorrow more than anything,” said Celtics star Jayson Tatum, who is shooting 36.5 percent in the Finals. “But if it doesn’t happen, it won’t be the end of the world. We have more opportunities. So just set the table: don’t surrender to the idea that we have to win tomorrow. We would love to, sure. But Game 5 is the biggest game of the season because it’s the next game on the calendar.”
“It would be awesome to get that. It would be great,” Celtics reserve Sam Hauser added. “If we lose, it won’t be the end of the world. We would still be winning 3-2, but to do it at home would be very special.”
Home-field advantage could be just what the Celtics need. Mavericks, not named Luka Dončić or Kyrie Irving, were terrible in the first three games of the series, but exploded to shoot 14 of 23 from 3-point range at home in Game 4. The result was a 122-84 loss to the Celtics . who gave life to the Mavs.
Meanwhile, Boston’s vaunted starting five finished just 7-of-22 from 3 in the lopsided loss. That’s a 21-point margin between the “others” of the Mavericks and the strength of these Celtics. It would be surprising to see that happen again in Boston, where Kyrie Irving has also struggled to find his game in these Finals.
“We just have to wait and see tomorrow, man,” Irving said Sunday when asked how unsettling the Boston atmosphere has been for him as he returns to a city he once (reluctantly) called home. “You know, change some things. Be prepared for what I’m getting myself into. The most important thing is to not make this about me or get into the energy with anyone other than my teammates. That’s it.”
The Mavericks believe they figured something out in Game 4. They unlocked their shooters and runners, with Dereck Lively II adding a double-double on five shot attempts in 22 minutes. It was a masterclass in efficiency, as Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White – Boston’s offensive firepower – combined to shoot 32.5% from the field and record more turnovers (10) than assists (8).
Dallas will tell himself that the series is finding its feet and that its inexperienced actors are figuring it out.
“Yeah, I think there’s probably something to that,” Kidd said. “If we look at the analytics of our group, they are young and as the series progresses, they improve. [on Monday] night. Sometimes when you play against an opponent repeatedly, you get used to their tendencies and start to capitalize on that on both sides, defensively and offensively. We hope our group has seen enough Boston to understand what they are good at and we hope we can take that away [on Monday] night.”
What the Mavericks really solved, though, was their effort.
“They played very, very hard and very desperate,” Holiday said. “We have to do the same thing.”
Sometimes it really is that simple, especially if, as the first three games of the series have proven, the Celtics have more talent. All that is needed, then, is to comply with the Mavericks’ wishes. Do this every night from here on out, and just based on pitching variation, Boston should be able to win a game before Dallas makes history.
As Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said, it’s “the willpower, the mindset, the approach that you bring to it.”
Except, if Boston comes up with another stinker, the Mavericks’ belief in themselves will grow exponentially. The pressure will increase even more for the Celtics if they have to return to Dallas, if they need another win on the road to avoid a Game 7, and the anxiety of becoming the first team to blow a 3-0 lead starts to look real.
“I think we’re ready for Game 5,” said Brown, whose worst playoff game came in Game 4. “I think that was the best response I got. and we’re looking forward to it.”
Win and the Celtics will be champions. Lose, and doubt may invade your psyche. This is a team that blew a 2-1 lead in the 2022 NBA Finals and lost to the less talented Miami Heat in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. It is a team that has tended to waste big advantages in recent seasons. The Celtics insist they are different this year. If they are, there’s no need to worry. They will win Game 5 at home as oddsmakers hope they. If they’re not, well, you’re telling me the Dallas Mavericks have a chance.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25571280/2408_Home_007578fb33c931bba638.png?w=300&resize=300,300&ssl=1 "Microsoft is making its Windows Game Bar more portable-friendly")
