The winner of three of the last four NBA MVP awards was chosen during a Taco Bell commercial. As the Denver Nuggets’ 41st overall pick in the second round of the 2014 draft appeared at the bottom of the screen – Nikola Jokic (listed as a power forward, by the way) – fans were treated to images of a mouth-watering quesarito.
Jokic may be the most overlooked prospect in league history, but he wasn’t the first and he’s far from the last. The Oklahoma City Thunder took Jalen Williams with the 12th pick in 2022; he averaged 19 points, four assists and four rebounds with above-average efficiency in his second NBA season last year. In 2021, the Houston Rockets landed a likely future All-Star in Alperen Sengun at No. 16. The year before, All-Star Tyrese Maxey went to Philadelphia at No. 21.
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In every draft since 2009, 41% of all future All-Stars have gone past the 10th pick. In the previous 10 drafts, that number was only slightly higher at 44%. In drafts between 1989 and 1998, 42% of eventual All-Stars were outside the top 10, up from 43% in the previous decade. It seems to be a timeless truth that a certain percentage of elite players are doomed to fall into oblivion.
It’s confusing that as Mexican-inspired fast food has advanced from a simple burrito to a burrito wrapped in a cheese quesadilla, the science of recruiting basketball players has barely advanced. Meanwhile, NBA teams are smarter about everything from sleep and recovering from off-court injuries to shot selection.
There’s a lot more information available about prospects these days, whether it’s game film, individual stats or biometric data. A growing number of young elite players, however, follow paths for the NBA that does not include attending college in the US, which makes scouting more complicated.
There are also many more players to evaluate than ever before, as the game has grown both nationally and globally. The prevalence of undrafted players in NBA rotations is at an all-time high, in part due to the league introducing two-way contracts in 2017-18 and now allowing three such contracts per team, but also due to the depth of the talent pool.
The chart above shows every NBA draft pick since 1989, the year the draft was shortened to just two rounds. Hover over the circles to see the individual players selected – you might find a non-rotation player picked directly before a Hall of Famer at least once every few years.
The 2024 NBA Draft is considered to have more unknowns than usual, with no clear superstar and many top prospects coming from G-League Ignite or other countries. There will almost certainly be franchises shaking their heads looking at the board five years from now.
But that’s normal, as the NBA Draft is full of mysteries. Using Basketball Reference’s win shares metric to approximate player value, the average No. 3 overall pick has had a better career than the average No. 2 overall pick. The same thing happened with the No. 4 pick, actually.
So don’t jump to conclusions about this year’s draft class based on where players are picked. It’s a fool’s errand.
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