The “Running Back Dead Zone” is a term fantasy football players know all too well. For those unfamiliar, the running back dead zone describes a section in the middle rounds of drafts featuring a group of running backs who, every year, seemingly never live up to their ADPs.
In this article, I will take a closer look at where exactly the RB dead zone lies this year to help you navigate your running back draft strategy.
Qualities of a Dead Zone Running Back
Let’s first define some common patterns and trends among dead zone running backs to get a better sense of what to look for this year.
Quality #1: Bad Offense
The most telling sign that a mid-round running back might be a bust is if he’s in a bad offense. Volume gives you an advantage in fantasy football, but it’s touchdowns that raise your ceiling, and dead zone running backs will often see high carry numbers but low efficiency and production in the end zone.
These players are in what I like to call “running back purgatory” – you will feel compelled to start your offensive running backs every week under the guise of high volume, but at the end of the day, a carry of 26.78- the yardage performance is worth just 7.8 fantasy points.
Some examples of dead zone running backs who fit this profile last year include Alexander Mattison (drafted as RB21) and Javonte Williams (RB25), who finished as RB38 and RB30, respectively.
Quality #2: Depth Chart Competition
Historically, a surprisingly high number of dead zone running backs were unproductive because they were simply benched as starters. That goes for guys like Dameon Pierce (RB15, replaced by Devin Singletary), Miles Sanders (RB20, replaced by Chuba Hubbard) and Cam Akers (RB22, replaced by Kyren Williams) last year. It’s obviously difficult to predict in advance whether a player will be benched midseason, but we should at least consider potential competitors in the backfield when deciding whether to draft dead zone running backs.
Quality #3: Not Pass Catchers
I mentioned above that volume gives a foundation, but not all volumes are created equally. Running backs who are pass catchers inherently receive a boost in their consistency because of PPR scoring. Therefore, another indication that a running back may fall into the dead zone is if he is a two-down back who will be substituted in pass-catching situations. This is especially the case if they are also on a bad offense, as this means they essentially won’t receive high-value touches.
Identifying the RB dead zone in 2024
We as a fantasy football community are getting smarter and smarter every year. As a result, it appears that the dead zone has decreased somewhat. Almost none of the running backs entering the first five rounds of fantasy drafts feel like dead zone players. Most of them play in offenses that are projected to be productive, and those that aren’t (Alvin Kamara and Rachaad White) have little competition and are great pass catchers.
With that said, I think this year’s dead zone is between the seventh and tenth draft rounds, starting roughly where Rhamondre Stevenson is going (RB22) and ending around Javonte Williams (RB33). Essentially, all running backs in this range can be categorized into one or more of the above categories, and I am actively avoiding them in drafts.
Stevenson, Zamir White, Brian Robinson and Devin Singletary feel like they are stuck in low-ceiling offenses. Stevenson and Robinson could also lose a significant amount of passes to Antonio Gibson and Austin Ekeler, respectively, making them inconsistent options this year.
Benson is a bit of an oddity as he is a rookie, but I doubt he will see a lot of volume by the end of the season considering how effective starter James Conner was last year. That makes the ninth round a bit of a rich draft price for a bench stock like Benson.
I could easily see Zack Moss and Javonte Williams losing their starting roles this season. Moss is currently struggling to solidify the starting role against second-year wing Chase Brown, and the two could end up in a timeshare that would hurt their fantasy value individually. Williams, on the other hand, had a notable lack of explosiveness last year following his ACL injury in 2022 and could be replaced by rookie Audric Estimé and/or the versatile Jaleel McLaughlin if Williams continues to struggle.
I’m not very optimistic about Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, as I feel like they will eat up each other’s bulk, making it difficult for either of them to remain fantasy relevant on a mediocre Titans offense. The team listed both Pollard and Spears as co-RB1s on their first depth chart of the season.
I’m also not a fan of Najee Harris, but more on that in the next section.
Rough diamonds
The two players I didn’t mention, Jaylen Warren and D’Andre Swift, are guys I can see staying alive in the dead zone. While Warren will likely enter the season in a committee with the aforementioned Harris, I’m optimistic that the talent will win out and he will carve out a larger role. Warren was one of the most efficient runners in the entire NFL last season — he ranked third in yards after contact per attempt, fifth in breakaway rush percentage and first in missed tackles forced per rush.
Last year, Warren was also effective as a pass catcher, hauling in 61 receptions on 74 targets, which ranked fifth among running backs. Long story short, I think Warren will provide enough space as a pass catcher to return value at his RB26 ADP, and his big play ability gives him the edge most dead zone running backs lack.
I’m a fan of Swift on this track because he belongs to the group’s best attack by far. Maybe I’m buying into the Caleb Williams hype too much, but I truly believe the Bears will be a top-15 offensive unit at the very least this season. Swift is leaving one year of career where he rushed for over 1,000 yards, and should have had a much better fantasy finish if Jalen Hurts didn’t steal so many touchdowns from Swift via pushing.
Now in Chicago, Swift should have many more opportunities at the goal line. While Swift may see some competition from Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, he is a firm believer in following the money and the Bears didn’t pay Swift the most guaranteed money of all running backs this offseason to sign him. Swift also offers value as a pass catcher (he had 62 receptions in 2021), and his RB25 ADP is closer to the floor than the ceiling. I would love to take Swift as my RB2 at 74th overall after landing an elite running back and several great receivers in the previous rounds.
Final thoughts
The running back dead zone remains an issue for fantasy managers in 2024. There are several players in the middle rounds who should avoid the draft this year due to a lack of clear upside and opportunities. Other than D’Andre Swift and Jaylen Warren, I would stay away from running backs in the seventh through tenth rounds to avoid the headache of dealing with an unproductive running back that I deluded myself into starting each week.
