As any fantasy manager or stock trader knows, predicting the future is difficult. That’s why we rely on expert analysis to distill complicated systems down to their easiest-to-understand metrics so we can stay ahead of the competition. But even so, fantasy analysis is often not perfect.
In today’s episode, Matt Harmon is accompanied by Ben Gretch to discuss two of the most consumed prediction metrics in fantasy football: rankings and projections. How do fantasy analysts like us create them? What situations should you read one versus the other? And in what situations are they completely useless?
Ben also helps explain four ways fantasy analysis and human instinct always get things wrong, and how to watch out for these common pitfalls.
Towards the end of the show, the guys discuss two younger players in the West whose disappointing 2023 campaigns are causing them to be undervalued this year in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Javonte Williams, before sharing a rookie who is certainly worth pitching a javelin in a high volume offensive situation.
(4:40) – How fantasy projections are made and how rankings differ
(25:30) – What are four things fantasy analysis gets wrong
(1:01:15) – Undervalued Situations: SEA’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba
(1:08:00) – Undervalued Situations: DEN’s Javonte Williams
(1:12:20) – Rookies worth throwing a javelin at: KC’s Xavier Worthy
See this full episode on YouTube
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