You don’t always need to bet on identifying the next sleeper to get some of the best value in your fantasy football drafts. Sometimes the best values are those that come from a bad year. Here are six players primed for a bounce-back season.
Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray wasn’t rushed Your return from an ACL tear that he suffered in the 2022 season, and given the personnel he played with, that’s probably a good thing. He played just four of his eight games as a starter for wide receiver Hollywood Brown last year. He was then throwing to a mismatched collection of wide receivers, including Greg Dortch, Rondale Moore and the oft-injured Michael Wilson. Murray was, however, able to use then-second-year tight end Trey McBride as his main receiving option to finish the year ranked as the QB9 in fantasy points per game.
Murray has also continued to showcase his ability as a rusher in 2023, which should have fantasy managers more than excited about his upside on the Konami Code. Despite returning from a season-ending knee injury, Murray was still averaging 30.5 rushing yards per game, which actually surpassed his production in 2021 when he classified as QB4 in fantasy points per game.
Considering this aspect of his game, the addition of rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. and the return of Trey McBride for his third NFL season, Murray is in great shape for a bounce-back season.
Typically, recency bias is the ultimate enemy of fantasy football coaches, as hot finishes from a player’s previous season often cloud our judgment and future projections. This is somehow no the case of the new Minnesota Vikings running back, Aaron Jones, who is currently being drafted as RB19 in Yahoo leagues.
After Jones’ absurdly slow start to the year, having suffered multiple injuries this season, it appears Fantasy coaches have given up their advantage. But why? He ended his final season with the Packers notching five consecutive 100-yard rushing games, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and an impressive 18.16 fantasy points per game.
Fantasy managers are vastly undervaluing Jones heading into a new offense.
With quarterback questions between Sam Darnold and JJ McCarthy, it seems reasonable that the Vikings should lean heavily on the run game, with Jones in charge of everything. Jones has limited competition working behind him, with third-year wing Ty Chandler the front-runner for the RB2 role. Expect Jones to master touches and return to form as an efficient runner and productive receiver out of the backfield to return to fantasy dominance even at 29 years of age.
Jonathan Taylor had a lot of advantages when he was on the field in 2023… it was just a matter of when he would actually be able to find the field. The 2021 rushing leader played in just 10 games, starting the year by missing the first four games of the PUP slate and another three games during the Fantasy Football playoffs due to a thumb injury.
Despite inconsistency in terms of availability and the loss of starting quarterback Anthony Richardson, Taylor managed to finish as the RB1 in five of his games. This year, both players are fully healthy and ready to increase each other’s advantage in terms of efficiency. Taylor will be running after a top five offensive lines this could help him reach his 9.8 ADP with ease.
Let’s not forget that the last time Taylor played a full season in 2021, he finished the year with 2,171 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns – the RB1 overall for the season. He still has the talent and upside to do so, projecting health for the 2024 season.
While Fantasy Football coaches are betting their seasons on second-year Rams WR Puka Nacua – who is still being drafted as the WR8 off the board despite going week after week with a knee injury suffered in training camp – my Eyes are on top rebound candidate Cooper Kupp as one of the best fantasy values this year.
Kupp enters his age-31 season now healthy after a injury-plagued 2023 campaignstarting the year on injured reserve with a hamstring injury and eventually suffering an ankle sprain in Week 11 that left him less than 100%. These injuries made it difficult to put his performance into context throughout the season, posting career lows in yards after the catch per reception (5.3), yards per route covered (1.77), and passer rating when targeted (91.4). .
The news was already overwhelmingly positive that Kupp was returning as the focal point of the Rams’ offense, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler said. reported earlier this month. Now, Nacua’s injury will make that more necessary than ever in Sean McVay’s high-octane offense with plenty of upside to surpass his current WR15 ADP.
It’s not often that a wide receiver coming off a 1,000-yard receiving campaign is considered a “bounceback” candidate, but unfortunately, Chris Godwin is that guy. Although he was healthy and active during a full 17-game slate in 2023, Godwin didn’t help fantasy managers much, averaging just 9.86 fantasy points per game — his lowest PPG average since his second season in the NFL. in 2018.
Godwin’s efficiency took a significant hit last year, averaging the fewest yards after the catch per catch (4.5) since his sophomore season and the second-lowest passer rating when targeted of his career (90.6 ). What may have been responsible for this drop in efficiency was his alignment, having played just 37.4% of snaps out of the slot in 2023, after playing no less than 63.4% of snaps there in each of his four seasons. previous ones.
New Buccaneers OC Liam Cohen announced his intention to bring Godwin back to a full-time role this season — a move Godwin praised when announcing his comfort level playing in the middle of the field. Putting him back in his more natural position on the field gives him a chance to enjoy enough fantasy success to surpass his current ADP of WR35.
It seems like every year Kyle Pitts ends up on a list of comeback candidates…but I swear, this time, it’s real (I hope). There’s no arguing that things went wrong for Pitts after becoming just the second rookie tight end in NFL history to post a 1,000-yard season. Not only did he deal with poor quarterback play, he ranked last out of 40 qualified tight ends with a 67.5% target catch rate per PFFbut he also dealt with a season-ending knee injury in 2022 that remained in his 2023 campaign.
Reports are that Pitts has dominated training camp to this point, in addition to a huge upgrade in Kirk Cousins, who has produced many viable receiving options while under center with his ability to throw an accurate ball from the pocket. Last season, TJ Hockenson caught 66 of Cousins’ 302 total targets.
Cousins himself knows Pitts’ upside and appears to be actively challenging him to reach that potential in 2024. Pitts is an elite athlete who now has a quarterback more than capable of handing him the football at the deadline. . This should maximize his ability to generate yards after the catch, which has been an aspect of his game we haven’t been able to capitalize on the last two seasons.
