Yahoo! player consensus ratings are excellent. I’m not just saying that; I would feel comfortable recommending anyone use the lists provided as a guide for their draft. But when I created my projections for the 2024 season — which is an exercise I’ve been doing for more than 25 years — a few players stood out to me as undervalued compared to the team’s consensus rankings. Here are the players I would pick if I picked Yahoo! ratings.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Yahoo Consensus: QB10 Fred: QB5
I’ll let the numbers do the talking. Working backwards from 2023, here are Prescott’s passing yardage totals, extrapolated to 17 games, from the last five seasons: 4,516, 4,052, 4,727, 6,310, 4,902. And here are his touchdown pass totals, extrapolated to 17 games, over the past five seasons: 36, 33, 37, 31, 32. With their current RB room, the Cowboys have no choice but to remain a team with a lot of passing, and as we can see from the data over the last five years, reasonable expectations for Prescott are 4,500 yards and 33 TDs.
Do you know how many players achieved both of these standards last season? One – Dak.
He guided the Cowboys to an NFL-leading 509 points last year, and with all due respect to Tony Pollard, Prescott hasn’t lost his top weapons (assuming CeeDee Lamb soon signs a long-term contract). Prescott is a great combination of high floor and high ceiling.
Running back
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Yahoo Consensus: RB26 Fred: RB18
Warren is an effective rusher (career 5.1 yards per carry) who is also an essential part of the Steelers’ passing attack. Although Najee Harris is expected to lead the team in runs, Warren can match last year’s total of 149 in Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offense. And he can match his 2023 total of 61 receptions in an offense that currently only has George Pickens (more on him later) as a dominant target.
Matching his 2023 production seems like Warren’s floor, and there’s a chance he can surpass Harris, who has averaged 3.9 yards per carry in his three-year career and is not under contract through 2025.
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
Yahoo Consensus: RB28 Fred: RB23
My enthusiasm for Spears is based on the simple principle that he is significantly younger and better than Tony Pollard. Spears looked dynamic in his rookie year when he averaged 4.5 yards per carry behind a poor offensive line while recording 52 receptions. Meanwhile, Pollard disappointed the Cowboys so much that they turned to what was left of Ezekiel Elliott.
Worst-case scenario, Spears must split carries while getting plenty of broadcast work in an offense that must shift to an aerial focus after losing Derrick Henry. There’s a good chance that Spears left Pollard in the dust midway through the season.
Wide Receivers
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Yahoo Consensus: WR19 Fred: WR12
Waddle felt like a disappointment last year, but when you add his average yards per game (72.4) to the total from the three games he missed, his final yards jump from 1,014 to 1,231. He averaged 72 yards per game over his first three seasons and is expected to match that total as a secondary option to offensive maestro Mike McDaniel in an offense that lacks a notable third wide receiver or dominant force at tight end.
And Waddle offers the contingent upside of instantly becoming a top-five WR during the weeks Tyreek Hill misses due to injury.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Yahoo Consensus: WR26 Fred: WR17
Along with Spears, Pickens will probably be my most selected player this year. The third-year pro has already demonstrated elite playmaking skills that were sometimes held back by a miserable QB situation. Pickens managed to rack up 1,140 yards last season despite sharing targets with Diontae Johnson and dealing with the three-headed QB monster that was Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitchell Trubisky.
Things are looking up this year as both Pittsburgh QBs, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, have shown they can boost their top target to big numbers. I expect Pickens to catch at least 20 more balls than last season’s total of 63, which will lead to 1,200 yards and some scores.
Of course, this will need reevaluation if the Steelers end up trading for Brandon Aiyuk.
Tight finish
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Yahoo Consensus: TE2 Fred: TE1
Tight end is the position where my projections have the closest alignment with Yahoo! consensus ratings. But there is a disagreement at the top, where I have Kelce firmly ahead of Lions youngster Sam LaPorta.
After recording at least 1,125 yards in five consecutive seasons, Kelce dropped to 984 yards last season. A quick glance would indicate this is a sign of a veteran in decline, until we realize the future Hall of Famer missed two games. Adding these two contests together, Kelce would have finished 2023 with 1,115 projected yards, which is similar to his previous work. And with the widespread expectation that the Chiefs will score much more often this year, Kelce should surpass last year’s total of five TDs (he averaged 11 in the previous three campaigns).
This rating is no knock on LaPorta, but the youngster is unlikely to match Kelce’s yardage total and could experience some regression from his rookie year TD total of 10.
