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The Chicago Bears’ futility at the QB position defies probability

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It may be the NFL’s most steadfast and constant truth, at least in the Super Bowl era: Chicago has simply never had a great quarterback, rarely a good one, and its luck in filling the position seemingly defies the odds.

Bust design. The free agent makes mistakes. Terrible trades. Injuries. Bad schemes. Bad training. Bad management. Bad luck. Prolonged mediocrity.

Whatever it is, Chicago is cursed at the most important position in the game. No, they’re not alone in sending mediocre signaling calls, but the extent of the Bears’ futility is breathtaking.

The Bears have not had a first-team All-Pro at the position since Johnny Lujack in 1950, a drought of more than seven decades. Only three times since 1951 has a Chicago QB been named to the Pro Bowl — Billy Wade in 1963, Jim McMahon in 1985 and Mitchell Trubisky in 2018 (although technically Trubisky was a replacement selection).

That’s pretty much the extent of the good times.

Chicago will look to end this string of positional failures on Thursday when the Bears are expected to use the No. 1 overall selection in the 2024 draft on Caleb Williams. Maybe USC’s former Heisman Trophy winner will work out.

If what has passed is prologue, well, good luck to Williams and everyone else at Halas Hall.

In 2020, ESPN used a statistical formula to rank which teams had the best quarterback play during the Super Bowl era (post-1966).

New England came in first. Green Bay second. Chicago… 32.

It’s unlikely the Bears’ standings have changed much in the four years following Trubisky and Justin Fields (who are actually quite strong by Chicago standards). After all, if any of them had gotten it right, they wouldn’t be drafting Williams.

There were worse franchises during that period – most notably Detroit, but even the Lions occasionally targeted quarterbacks, like Matthew Stafford, for 12 seasons. Cleveland is known as a QB graveyard, especially lately, but the Browns had Bernie Kosar and the underrated Brian Sipe.

The Bears can only dream.

Chicago is the only team in the NFL that has never had a quarterback throw at least 30 touchdowns in a season. It’s also unique in that no one ever throws for 4,000 yards in a season. These are not impossible video game numbers. Peyton Manning average best (4,231 yards, 31.7 TDs) in his 17-season career.

Ten QBs have thrown for more than 4,000 yards just last year. That includes Green Bay’s first-year starter Jordan Love (4,159 yards), who also threw 32 touchdowns. Part of the Bears’ malaise is that even though they can’t find anyone, the hated Packers have seamlessly moved on to their third franchise QB (Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers) since 1992.

CHICAGO, IL - SEPTEMBER 3: Erik Kramer #12 of the Chicago Bears throws a pass against the Minnesota Vikings during an NFL football game on September 3, 1995 at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois.  Kramer played for the Bears from 1994-1998.  (Photo by Focus on Sport / Getty Images)

In 1995, Erik Kramer threw for 3,838 yards and 29 touchdowns – both Bears franchise records to this day. (Focus on Sport/Getty Images)

Chicago’s most “talented” quarterback is, of course, McMahon, who in 1985 led the Bears to their only Super Bowl title.

These Bears, however, were known for their running game and defense, powered by six future Pro Football Hall of Famers – including running back Walter Payton and linebacker Mike Singletary. McMahon completed just 56.9% of his passes and threw 15 touchdowns against 11 interceptions that season.

The “best” Bears quarterback is probably Jay Cutler. In 2009, Chicago sent two first-round picks, a third-rounder and quarterback Kyle Orton to get Cutler and a fifth-rounder. He gave Chicago eight up-and-down injury-plagued seasons and just a single playoff win before a disastrous NFC title game loss to the Packers.

Besides that? There aren’t a ton.

Erik Kramer (1994-98) had some excellent seasons (including a franchise-record 29 TDs in 1995), but injuries limited his time. Jim Harbaugh anchored some winning teams in 1990 and 1991, but his best individual game came later in Indianapolis. The aforementioned Orton was fine. Jim Miller was decent for a period.

Chicago reached the Super Bowl after the 2006 season, but the team was focused on defense, not quarterback Rex Grossman. He threw 20 picks and completed just 54.6% of his passes.

Based on historical comparison, the last two quarterbacks drafted by the Bears – Trubisky (No. 2 overall in 2017) and Justin Fields (No. 11 in 2021) don’t look that bad, which will tell you how bad it has been.

Most notable is who Chicago chose no to choose from over the years.

In 2017, they traded up to get Trubisky instead of sitting still and getting Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson. They had three fourth-round picks in the 2016 draft, but overlooked Dak Prescott, who went a few spots later to Dallas.

In 1979, his chief scout, Bill Tobin, had a first-round grade on Joe Montana, but the general manager ignored his pleas and let the future Hall of Famer fall to San Francisco late in the third round.

Sometimes it was just bad luck — in 1970, they lost a coin toss to Pittsburgh with the first overall pick. The Steelers grabbed Terry Bradshaw.

There is no coin toss this time. The Bears could pick from the 2024 draft class, Chicago’s next chance at its next — or first — great quarterback.



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