On April 25, in Detroit, Michigan, the 89th annual NFL draft will begin. As team owners, general managers, coaches and scouts pore over the top prospects preparing to make the jump from college to the pros, there’s a strong possibility that four quarterbacks will be selected in the top 10 for the third time in history. In fact, for what would be the first time, the first four picks could all be quarterbacks.
That’s partly due to the talent available at the game’s most important position this year. 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, a graduate of the University of Southern California, is considered a generational prospect with a skill set that has been compared to Patrick Mahomes. He will almost certainly go No. 1 overall to the Chicago Bears.
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Then there’s the man who won the Heisman for the 2023 season, Jayden Daniels. The 23-year-old played at the college level for five years, starting at Arizona State before blossoming over three seasons at Louisiana State University. Last year, he emerged as one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks to declare for the draft since two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, throwing 40 touchdowns and rushing for 10 more.
Drake Maye was less impressive in his second season as a starter at the University of North Carolina than the previous year, when he broke the school record for passing yards and tied the Tar Heels’ record for touchdowns. But his size, arm talent and athleticism have caused him to be compared to Josh Allen. Expected to be the fourth quarterback drafted, JJ McCarthy doesn’t have the statistical resume of the other three, but he led Michigan to the national championship last season. There is a chance, too, that one or both of the projected second-round picks, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr, could be chosen among the top 32 selections.
Despite all the talent on offer, however, the clamor for quarterbacks in this year’s draft is the result of rare levels of desperation among teams to find franchise stars at the position.
In a clear indication of their intention to draft a quarterback with the No. 1 pick, the Bears traded Justin Fields, last season’s starter and the 11th overall pick three years ago, to the Pittsburgh Steelers in exchange for a 2025 sixth-round pick. The Washington Commanders, picked second, made a similar move when they traded last season’s starter, Sam Howell for the Seattle Seahawks. And by picking third, the New England Patriots are expected to take a swing at another quarterback after their 2021 No. 15 pick, Mac Jones, failed to start the post-Tom Brady era in Foxborough and was traded to Jacksonville Jaguars this offseason.
In addition to the teams that have the top three picks, there are a number of franchises in need of quarterbacks, prepared to offer future draft capital to be traded into the top five. The Arizona Cardinals own the fourth overall pick, but with Kyler Murray already on their books, they don’t need a quarterback. The same applies to the Los Angeles Chargers, who are ranked 5th and have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Justin Herbert.
The Minnesota Vikings, who lost Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons in free agency, are chief among the contingent that to do I need a quarterback. They appeared to signal their intention to compile an attractive package of options for trading when they added the 23rd overall pick from the Houston Texans to his own No. 11 selection last month. Combining these two picks with a future first or second rounder could be enough to persuade the Cardinals, Chargers or even the Patriots to trade back.
But there are also the New York Giants, who could replace the injury-prone Daniel Jones at the end of next season. They have the sixth pick and face the dilemma of whether to use their first-round selection to address another area of great need — wide receiver, a position where the 2024 draft is loaded with talent — or trade up to secure one of the top quarterbacks. highly rated, or stand by and wait for one to fall into their hands.
The Denver Broncos, who last month absorbed biggest dead cap hit in NFL history to release Russell Wilson, are also looking for a new quarterback, although that calculation may have changed after they traded for Zach Wilson on Monday. The Las Vegas Raiders, sitting behind, are another quarterback-hungry team despite signing starter Gardner Minshew as a free agent.
Like most sports, the NFL is a league in which the chasing pack tries to emulate the best practices perceived by recent winners. When it comes to recruiting quarterbacks, there are two fashionable philosophies – either look for the next Mahomes by investing draft capital to select the most talented player available and then build around them; or assemble a strong roster of offensive linemen and pass catchers, then find a competent game manager on a cheap rookie contract later in the draft to bring them together. This cheaper contract allows you to place several stars in other positions, like Brock Purdy did for the San Francisco 49ers.
But Mahomes and Purdy are imperfect examples of the methodologies they have come to represent. Mahomes wasn’t a top pick: He went 10th overall in the 2017 draft. And the Chiefs traded up to get him, meaning he joined a strong team that was 12-4 the season before. He was able to sit out most of his rookie season and learn from the experienced Alex Smith, before joining an offense that included Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce and was overseen by one of the great offensive minds in Andy Reid.
And the Niners sought talent at quarterback when they traded three first-round picks to move up in 2021 and take Trey Lance third overall. Purdy, the last pick in the 2022 draft, was never intended to be a starter – he only got the chance when Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo suffered injuries.
Chicago is well positioned for the best of both worlds. They can take Williams because they own the No. 1 overall pick thanks to a trade last year with the Carolina Panthers, who finished the 2023 season with the worst record in the NFL. The Bears added depth and experience to a receiving corps that already included DJ Moore with the free agency signing of six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen. They also have the ninth pick, with which they can further bolster their pass-catching conspiracy or improve another department.
But there are still no guarantees when it comes to drafting defenders. There was a similar level of excitement surrounding the 2021 draft class, which saw three quarterbacks taken in the first three picks and five in the top 15.
Four of those five – Lance, Fields, Jones and Wilson – have already been traded by the teams that drafted them. That year’s No. 1 overall pick, Trevor Lawrence, was considered the best quarterback prospect to enter the draft in nearly a decade, but even he has yet to live up to the lofty expectations that accompanied his selection by the Jaguars.
This year’s draft will provide a better supply of quarterback talent than most classes, but it is far from certain whether that supply can satisfy the high demand for franchise stars.
