Winners
Chicago Bears. Anyone with an Internet connection could have drafted Southern California quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick. But Williams’ arrival is a coup for the Bears, who have been in the QB desert for decades. Chicago fans expect Williams to be the team’s best defender ever, and that won’t be all that unreasonable of them, given his sublime talent and the team’s barren history at the position. General manager Ryan Poles also did well to surround Williams with one of the best groups of receivers in football. The Poles traded for Los Angeles Chargers star Keenan Allen earlier this year, and he then used the ninth pick to add Washington’s Rome Odunze to a group that already included the talented and productive DJ Moore. Maybe the Bears won’t win much in 2024, but they should be more fun to watch than they have been. And for the first time in a long time, there is a foundation upon which the club could build a Super Bowl team.
Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings lost their quarterback, Kirk Cousins, to the Atlanta Falcons in free agency. They were about to spend 2024 in misery, with the disappointment of veteran Sam Darnold looming as a stopgap. Now, if Vikings fans have to watch Darnold, it will only be for a few games. Michigan’s JJ McCarthy fortuitously fell to the 10th pick, and the Vikings traded up to nab him as their signal-caller of the future. McCarthy is a hotly debated prospect. He won the national championship at Michigan, but the Wolverines were dedicated to making him throw the ball very little in a run-obsessed offense. When he played, he was more good than great. But he’s just 21 years old and has a lot of athletic upside, and Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell has a solid track record with his QBs; McCarthy becomes his last student. And after trading for another first-round pick, Minnesota landed a highly capable edge rusher in Alabama’s Dallas Turner at No. 17. McCarthy may be the future, but Turner should be a good NFL player right away.
Pittsburgh Steelers. Speaking of good luck as the draft unfolds, the Steelers got really lucky when Washington offensive lineman Troy Fautanu was available to them with the 20th pick. Pittsburgh has two gaps in its offensive line, one at center (where there is practically no one) and another at left tackle (where one of the worst players in the league starts). In Fautanu, they have a talented and critically versatile big man who can add some nastiness to what has often been an underperforming line. Adding someone like Fautanu was a prerequisite if the Steelers hoped to give new quarterback Russell Wilson a chance, and decisions by other teams allowed Pittsburgh to solve its problem. The Steelers’ good draft continued when West Virginia center Zach Frazier was in contention in the second round. Meanwhile, Michigan receiver Roman Wilson, a third-round pick, could play a lot as a rookie in a position group where the Steelers lack depth.
Losers
Atlanta Falcons. Spending the eighth overall pick on a QB who probably won’t be drafted until late in the first or even second round? Hey, we all make bold decisions sometimes. But doing this immediately after guaranteeing $100 million to an established veteran playing the same position? And without talking to that quarterback first? The Falcons’ decision to sign Washington’s Michael Penix Jr, a 24-year-old with a big left arm and an equally big injury history, seems more bizarre in this context. Cousins’ will play this season at age 36, so it’s not unreasonable to plan for three years from now. But for Penix’s decision to bear fruit, the Falcons will need to be the smartest guys in the room. Historically, that hasn’t been true of the men running this particular franchise, which may explain why long-suffering Atlanta fans seemed perturbed by the Cousins-Penix two-step.
Denver Broncos. Taking Oregon quarterback Bo Nix at No. 12 was a little less awkward than what the Falcons did with Penix, but only a little. Nix is another old contender at 24 years old. He became an excellent college QB by the end of his five-year career, but that’s exactly the problem: It took Nix a long time (and a good age advantage over the competition) to become useful at Oregon, where the coaching staff helped him to succeed with a series of short, quick throws that allowed his teammates to make plays on the ball. How much development he still has ahead of him in the NFL is a reasonable question, which is why many thought he, like Penix, would remain undrafted until late in the first round or even the second. It’s not easy to see Nix becoming an above-average starter, but right now the Broncos need it from him. Meanwhile, they will pay Wilson nearly $40 million while he plays elsewhere this season. It reeks of questionable asset management from a team that has missed the playoffs eight consecutive times.
Defensive players. The first 14 names called up in Thursday’s first round all belonged to offensive candidates. The drought didn’t end until UCLA quarterback Laiatu Latu joined the Indianapolis Colts at No. 15. This marked by far the worst stretch of draft futility for defenders in the post-1970 NFL merger, as 2021 (when the first defender taken was the No. 8 pick) represented the previous low point. Why was 2024 so exceptional? The league-wide thirst for still-passable quarterback play contributed, as six QBs were off the board in the first 12 picks. Also playing a role was an unusually strong wide receiver class (led by Marvin Harrison Jr, now of the Cardinals) and the presence of an elite tight end, Brock Bowers (who went to the Las Vegas Raiders). The rush on offensive players was primarily a rush on pitchers and catchers. But that won’t make the lost gains any better for the defenders who fell on draft boards.
