Rookie WR Expectations Post-NFL Draft: How Good Will Marvin Harrison Jr. Be?

With the NFL Draft behind us It is all landing sites revealedMatt Harmon divides all receivers selected on Days 1 and 2 into three groups to outline expectations for when they will be able to contribute as full-time players.

First day starters

Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals

Harrison enters the NFL ready to make an impact as an X receiver from day one. He has all the skills, traits, and abilities you want to check the box for. He has several release moves with a coach’s feel for gaining separation. Harrison is also comfortable playing aggressive football.

The Cardinals have a hole at the top of their depth chart for a No. 1 starter. Trey McBride is a very good tight end and there are complementary players in the receiver room, but no one on the roster is a threat to Harrison catching 130-plus targets.

Roma Odunze, Chicago Bears

The Bears have two strong players on the roster: DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. It will be interesting to see who loses in two-receiver sets in this offense, but Chicago’s base package of these receivers should be an 11-person package. Rome Odunze is a true X-receiver, and these guys rarely come off the field.

Odunze isn’t your typical rookie either. He has a professional skill set with route polish and top-notch hands to make an instant impact. Moore and Allen are very good, but there’s a chance Chicago gets to camp and quickly realizes Odunze is their best player.

He is what good.

Malik Nabers, New York Giants

My thought throughout this process was that if one of these receivers was going to land with the Giants, we would want it to be Malik Nabers because he is exceptionally skilled at surviving this landing spot.

Setting aside questions about the quarterback or overall offense for a moment, Nabers immediately achieves “top dog” status on that depth chart from his first practice. There are some serviceable players at receiver, like Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson at least, but no high-profile targets. It would be a surprise if Nabers didn’t lead this team by a healthy difference in overall air volume in Year 1.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

I know they signed Gabe Davis this offseason, but it would be a huge surprise (and a mistake) if he was more involved in the Jaguars offense all season than Brian Thomas Jr. was about the one “raw” aspect of his game.

Thomas showed throughout his final season that he could thrive on the job and understand multiple plans of attack against the press. He offers a unique skill set that no Jaguars receiver has had in the Trevor Lawrence era. Production could be volatile for Thomas as a rookie, but he should play a lot. By the end of this year, I bet we’re all ready to predict a pretty significant breakthrough in its second season.

Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers’ wide open receiver depth chart is absolutely devoid of guys who can get open consistently. They ended up with one of the best pass breakers in the draft, Ladd McConkey.

I would be surprised if McConkey didn’t lead the Chargers in targets this season. He has all the technical skills mastered to take the field immediately. Given that volume and his quarterback duo, he should compete to be one of the most productive rookies in 2024.

Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs

If we were confident that Rashee Rice would play a full season, I might have placed Xavier Worthy in the next category. As it stands, it’s hard to imagine Worthy won’t play a lot in 11 personnel and possibly see the field in two-receiver sets.

The Chiefs are famous for rotating their receivers and asking players to play specialized roles. We’ll see if that changes if they feel better about their options this season, but Worthy is still a player who needs some tweaking. My guess is that his impact is felt more by the attack in general and less from the point of view of individual production. Still, he will be on the field for the majority of snaps and is expected to catch 90 targets as a rookie.

Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills

Given his size and the other players on the roster, Keon Coleman seems like a fit for the X receiver position in Buffalo. I have my concerns about how this will function as your home long term.but it’s his best path to the field as a rookie.

The Bills receiver room looks a lot like the Chiefs style. They have plenty of quality options in Coleman, Curtis Samuel Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid. I just don’t know if they have the number 1 in that group by which you can channel targets as the clear alpha.

This could still be a productive offense, just an offense that could be difficult to analyze every week.

Ja’Lynn Polk, New England Patriots

Ja’Lynn Polk was a good second-round pick by the Patriots, despite what some people want to say. He’s a solid option in the middle of the field who thrives against zone coverage and has some of the best hands in the class. He is a reliable player who doesn’t mind doing the dirty work. The fact that New England went back to capture Javon Baker in the fourth round as their developmental X-receiver makes this move look even better.

Polk should be able to see the field sooner. He can play multiple positions and has a professional skill set. He could be an early favorite of Jacoby Brissett and be Drake Maye’s security blanket when he takes over.

It will have some obstacles, but it will play significant roles

Xavier Legette, Carolina Panteras

The Panthers made a big bet on Xavier Legette, trading up to make him the 32nd pick in the NFL Draft. He has some rare physical abilities, but presents a risk profile. For what it’s worth, Panthers coach Dave Canales seems to understand what kind of player they’re getting in Legette and some of the roles he’ll need:

Legette will certainly need to play a big role in Year 1 to provide size and energy in the receiving room. However, I could see him running behind Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen early this season as he develops more as a route runner.

Adonai Mitchell, Indianapolis Colts

The Colts did not perform well with their vertical X receiver position last year. They apparently drafted AD Mitchell as a direct replacement for Alec Pierce at that position. The way they describe their skill set and usage aligns perfectly with this role:

Mitchell will have a hard time getting a high target total as a rookie because of Josh Downs and especially Michael Pittman Jr. But if he maintains the X role, Mitchell rarely leaves the field. This all comes down to how much Anthony Richardson is ready to consistently elevate the offense. I’m encouraged by the brief signs we saw last season.

Roman Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have several WR3 and 4 types on the roster in addition to George Pickens. Roman Wilson has a clear runway to be the team’s No. 2 receiver this year. I had my pre-draft questions about how broad Wilson’s skill set would be at the next level, but he can win over the middle on crossing routes via play-action plays. This will be a landmark in Pittsburgh. Regardless, there won’t be much raw volume available in this passing game if the team leans on the strength of the running game roster. It seems so.

Malachi Corley, New York Jets

The Jets selection of Corley was a little rich for me, but they clearly love the player. He was a specific target on draft day:

The Jets have an opening in the slot for a third receiver. Mike Williams, if healthy, will play the boundary X receiver role and Garrett Wilson will be the volume hog out there, even if he moves around a bit. Corley is a movable chess piece that needs some design touches to produce. This concerns me about Nate Hackett’s offense, but he has an open path to produce.

Luke McCaffrey, Washington commanders

McCaffrey was a surprise late third-round pick, so clearly Washington likes his skill set. He could easily be in the “future bets” group, but there is a need on this depth chart for a WR3. If this coaching staff considers Jahan Dotson as an outside receiver, McCaffrey could start in the slot from the start.

Future Bets

Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers

Ricky Pearsall was one of my favorite receivers in this draft class and I loved the 49ers taking him in the first round. He solves a problem for the team by bringing another man coverage skill set that was missing in the Super Bowl:

That said, as long as Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk remain on the team, Pearsall will have a tough task landing starting spots in Year 1. The 49ers don’t command a ton of 11 personnel and even when they do, Juaun Jennings is a solid pro who has played a critical role. It’s hard for me to imagine that Pearsall won’t play some role this season, but with the squad currently constructed, he’s a gamble for the future.

If Samuel were traded, however, Pearsall would jump at least a bucket on my list.

Jermaine Burton, Cincinnati Bengals

Burton won’t start ahead of Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins in two-receiver sets, but he could play outside when Chase enters the slot for three-receiver sets. He’s not a typical third-round pick, so don’t rule out the possibility of him pushing for playing time:

Overall, your best bet is if/when Higgins moves on. Burton is talented enough to be Joe Burrow’s long-term No. 2 receiver besides Chase. This is a very attractive proposition.

Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have Chris Godwin and Mike Evans solidly atop the depth chart. 2023 rookie Trey Palmer gave them some spectacular plays last season. The new offensive coaching staff appears to want Godwin to take more slot reps. McMillan is a natural spot, so he’s locked in for this season at least.