As the quarterbacks’ early record spread through the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, team decision-makers were watching the dynamics closely.
Many believed that seven teams might be in the market for a first-round quarterback (they would later discover that an eighth team was on the prowl).
Talent evaluators considered as many as six quarterbacks worthy of the draft’s highest levels.
Which team would miss the chance?
The Chicago Bears selected USC prospect Caleb Williams first overall long before the end of April. Washington’s brass went with LSU’s Jayden Daniels, also an expectation, although less certain. The New England Patriots remained third to select UNC’s Drake Maye.
And for the first time in NFL history, at the 12th overall pick, six quarterbacks were already claimed.
With the Atlanta Falcons’ surprise selection of Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall, not one but two teams widely considered to be in contention for the quarterback exited the draft without one in any round, let alone the first.
That doesn’t mean you should count out the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders.
Because as quarterback desperation reaches historic levels, coaches and executives across the league don’t view the Giants’ and Raiders’ quarterbackless recruiting classes as a breath of air.
In a league where first-round quarterbacks often fail, some are casting more doubt on the decision to draft first-round quarterbacks in such a hurry rather than sit out the race. Take Oregon quarterback Bo Nix, who the Broncos selected 12th overall, a move the Raiders avoided and the Giants intentionally avoided.
“You and I can’t sit here and talk and be like, ‘[Broncos head coach] Sean Payton was thrilled to have the sixth quarterback off the board,’” said an NFC assistant coach. “There’s no way. … If you’re not in the top two or three, you don’t know who’s going to make it. So now you’re settling.
“Congratulations, you got the sixth best quarterback in this class. Is this really what we are looking for?
The short answer: it depends.
What QB discipline could mean for Giants, Raiders
The team’s draft strategy takes into account more than just a player’s talent. Franchises consider their specific evaluation of a prospect (it’s possible that Nix was higher than Denver’s sixth QB); evaluating gaps in your lineup going into the draft; which position designs have more and less depth; and the life cycle of a team’s talent cap.
The Bears, Commanders and Patriots positioned themselves for relatively simple decisions when they kept the top three draft picks after each traded away their quarterback in the offseason. From there, the calculation deepened.
Teams in need of a quarterback had to consider not only whether they believed in a player, but also how much capital they could sacrifice for a potential trade. Which quarterbacks were franchise caliber and how much were evaluators willing to bet on that outcome?
Decision makers know that a quarterback cannot contribute to a team’s growth while developing as much as players at other positions. If the prospect’s potential doesn’t exceed the value of a quarterback on the roster, decision makers will be cautious when recommending a pick.
“The worst thing you can do in this situation is reach and force,” an NFC executive told Yahoo Sports over the phone this week. “Because as soon as you push and allocate real resources, it can inhibit your ability to build your team. And the level of success you have with this change will define you.”
The Giants (6-11) and Raiders (8-9) entered this draft with losing records but pockets of talent.
So they made calls.
Giants general manager Joe Schoen confirmed during draft weekend that he was involved in calls about trades up and down from the sixth overall pick. Many around the league believe the Giants would have been interested in drafting Maye if the Patriots hadn’t selected him third overall. It’s unclear how much the Giants were willing to mortgage for the opportunity to secure Maye, but ultimately their potential trade partner also needed Maye.
The Raiders, at 13, were widely considered interested in Penix had he fallen into their hands.
General manager Tom Telesco confirmed that the club “is thinking” about negotiating on Day 1, although “it’s not particularly difficult.”
“We had kind of a plan to move up if there was an opportunity,” Telesco said after the first night of the draft. “It wasn’t there and we kept walking.”
Instead, each team selected a dynamic offensive weapon, the Giants opting for LSU receiver Malik Nabers while the Raiders grabbed Georgia tight end Brock Bowers.
To varying degrees, each weapon will give their franchise another chance to evaluate whether their interior defenders are sufficient or better. Several coaches and executives agreed that they would have evaluated both teams’ options similarly to remain at quarterback.
“It’s a very complicated deal because if you’re wrong on this, it can really set you back several years,” the assistant told Yahoo Sports over the phone. “For me, the model of success, at least what seems to be changing, is what Atlanta did: build it and then import someone [at quarterback] go and take control.
The irony of placing the Falcons on this strategic pedestal was not lost on an AFC assistant.
The Falcons’ offseason quarterback plan created cognitive dissonance across the league.
“Signing Kirk Cousins is a good idea,” said the AFC assistant. “Drafting Michael Penix is a good idea. Doing both at the same time is a bad idea.”
And yet… the building blocks that make any movement a good idea in a vacuum are remarkable.
The Falcons and Chicago Bears welcome their first-round quarterbacks to a roster with several talented first-round pass catchers and a more experienced offensive line than their predecessors.
Could the 2025 Raiders and Giants be following the same path?
The quarterbacks currently in each building will influence the decision.
In New York, Daniel Jones is just two seasons removed from completing 67.2% of his passes for 3,205 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions. His league-low 1.1% interception rate contributed to a 92.5 passer rating (14th best) and Jones also rushed for 708 yards and seven touchdowns when the Giants won a playoff game.
The franchise benefited less from Jones in 2023, as injuries to him and his teammates derailed the 2024 season. Jones’ 2:6 touchdown to interception ratio was more reflective of his skill and decision-making, or the crumbling roster around you? Jones technically completed passes at a higher rate (67.5%), but lack of availability was his main problem. A neck injury and a season-ending ACL tear limited him to six games. The Giants are on pace to open 2024 with Jones at the helm.
“Our expectation was that Daniel would be our starter and we brought in Drew Lock to be his backup and Tommy [DeVito] It’s been a backup, so that’s where we are and that’s how we’re going to move forward this season,” Schoen said after the draft. “Daniel still has a contract for another three years. As it stands today, that’s where we are.”
The Raiders, meanwhile, went 5-5 last season behind 2023 fourth-rounder Aidan O’Connell completing 62.1% of his passes for 2,218 yards, 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. They then signed veteran Gardner Minshew to a two-year contract worth up to $25 million, with $15 million fully guaranteed. Minshew completed 62.2% of his passes for 3,305 yards, 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions last season, while fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson underwent season-ending surgery.
With developmental advantages for each player, sources agreed that any quarterback below the top tier in this draft class would have been superfluous to the team-building process.
An NFC assistant called Minshew a “borderline playoff quarterback,” while an NFC executive described him as a “game manager” who could have success with the Raiders’ top-10 defense.
“They will probably depend on his running game,” the executive said. “It will be an action-packed game, they will attack in the middle of the field. Gardner Minshew will know where his checks are.
“It won’t be an explosive attack, but it won’t make many mistakes either.”
What if the offense is good but not great? The Raiders could find themselves back in the middle of the first round of the draft, trying to decide whether to sacrifice capital to replace their coveted quarterback or spend another year with two good but not great players. Mumblings around the league also question whether team owner Mark Davis would pay to sign a free agent like Dak Prescott or Cousins from the Dallas Cowboys — if the Falcons signed Penix sooner than expected.
The Giants’ response appears to be clearer. If Jones stays healthy and excels, the Giants will opt not to terminate his voidable contract. His $40 million salary will look increasingly palatable compared to his counterparts who topped $50 million a year. If a weapon like Nabers isn’t enough to regain Jones’ form in 2022 or better, or if he can’t stay healthy, the Giants’ results will likely position them to pick his successor sooner.
The league will watch with interest, speculating on a plan that the decision-makers themselves cannot yet imagine.
“There’s a certain element of just implementing your process, believing in your process and just increasing the odds because you’re going to be making bets in a moment,” said an NFC executive. “That’s why you have a process [to] increase your probability of success.
“Because nobody knows.”
