Mahomes, Allen and Burrow will attract billions in advertising dollars in 2024

Imagine Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett bulldozing his way through a Pop Warner offensive line with a bunch of kids who are still negotiating their way out of the football pajamas internship, and you’re halfway to understanding almost dominance. bizarre effect of the NFL has on the American psyche. Imagine the 6’4”, 272-pound Defensive Player of the Year totally dismantling a skinny 7-year-old who’s afraid of bees before throwing a second opponent (who’s even skinnier and probably wears a Kung Fu Panda t-shirt underneath the shirt) in a pyramid of halftime oranges.

Pop pop pop, crunch bang pow; like a five-time Pro Bowler destroying a phalanx of terrified second graders, the N.F.L. hegemonic strangulation in culture it is unwavering and relentless and not just a little blunt. (No child afraid of bees was harmed in the construction of this analogy.)

Just as it is inadvisable for children to play football against a grown man who is part panther, part M1A2 Abrams main battle tank, our annual attempt to take a look at the highest-rated NFL broadcasts from the upcoming season is perhaps more than a little stupid. Or not. While it’s unknown what tomorrow will bring, if past performance is any indicator of future success, when triangulating a handful of franchises (Cowboys, Chiefs, 49ers, Eagles, Bills) with the NFL’s best-performing TV windows, we should achieve a beautiful result. a solid perspective on which games will post the biggest numbers this fall.

But first, a quick note on cleaning. Projected deliveries are based on Nielsen live and same-day deliveries for 2023-24, as well as 10-year ratings tracking for each of the league’s national TV windows. While the NFL will have a harder time growing viewership than it did a year ago, when TV attendance rose 7 percent to an eight-year high, the cost of purchasing this season’s roster promises to be more staggering than ever before. It happens. If you’re a well-resourced CMO, what follows is a breakdown of the games you should probably get if you don’t want to spend 2025 clicking through job opportunities on LinkedIn.

Oh, and: we won’t include any of Netflix’s Christmas Day games, as it’s not yet known what the stream prices will be, or what the ad loads will be like, or whether Nielsen will measure them. Plus, Chiefs-Steelers is like finding a dead bum under a tree, and we’re still not buying the Texans’ hype. (Every year or so, there’s a team that shows up on every national schedule — see: recent crop of Jets, Browns — and they don’t show up. The Texans played in a terrible national window last season, and now they’re All over the map, Houston, we have an overexposure problem.)

1) Giants at Cowboys (Fox Thanksgiving window, Nov. 28) 42.2 million viewers, 11.8 HH rating

Cowboys are as much a part of holiday tradition as wobbly cranberry sides and your kid’s mangy-looking turkey. Unfortunately, the 2024 New York Giants are basically as good as the turkeys produced by this one-armed kid I went to elementary school with. (His snow angels were also a disaster.) The last time I saw this person, he was playing the Pop-A-Shot game in a bar, each swipe of his mighty paw sending the ball hurtling into the crowd of revelers. Now, a practicing lawyer, he should probably know this – just as you should know not to let this game slide. Yes, it will cost at least $1 million for a 30 second unit of play, and if you wait and take a slot on the scatter, you are looking at something that will be much closer to $1.5 million. Obvious choice, sure, but facts are facts: Even in a difficult situation, this is the biggest regular-season game of the year.

2) Bears at Lions (CBS Thanksgiving window, Nov. 28) 34.3 million viewers, 11.8 HH rating

Despite the standard difference between deliveries in the early and mid-afternoon windows, the classification of households will likely remain the same. (Instead of getting into a tizzy over why this happens, just count the coats on the guest room bed and there’s your answer.) The addition of out-of-home deliveries to Nielsen’s national sample in September 2020 has unearthed legions of of ghost fans – furtive viewers who for decades went unaccounted for by the ratings service – and these recaptured impressions now account for about 40% of total NFL Turkey Day deliveries. Another example of a game that will be watched regardless of the score, the CBS game is also expected to: a) cost advertisers more than $1 million per game and b) provide a preview of their NFC champions from 2024.

Bonus Prediction: Bills 29, Lions 28, February 9, 2025, Caesars Superdome. Because, of course, the Rust Belt Bowl and also because no one will remember this bold guess in three weeks, much less when the Big Game® arrives.

3) Chiefs at Bills (CBS national window, Nov. 17) 32.6 million viewers, 13.3 HH rating

The Josh Allen-Patrick Mahomes rivalry is the gift that keeps on giving to the NFL and its media partners, a duo that is emblematic of the QB firepower that helped lift the AFC to heights once reserved for the NFC megamarket. Last season’s arrhythmia-inducing AFC Divisional Round matchup averaged 50.4 million viewers on CBS and is now the most-watched NFL game outside of the conference championships and the Super Bowl. The Chiefs survived 27-24, thanks to Tyler Bass’ unfortunate timing of Scott Norwood, and have won all three postseason games against the Bills, so this is a crucial test for Allen & Co.

But wait, there’s more! Much more, it seems, as CBS’ Week 11 finale slate also includes regional coverage of the Bengals-Chargers game. (Although CBS has KC-Buffalo listed as its national offering, this could very well be a situation where something like 55% of the country sees Allen vs. Mahomes and the rest gets Burrow vs. Herbert.) In terms of young star QBs , this afternoon is like throwing Tom Brady and Peyton Manning into the Large Hadron Collider and watching the NFL universe turn inside out. Fun!

4) Lions at Cowboys (Fox national window, Oct. 13) 31.3 million viewers, 13.0 HH rating

Fresh off his work at Netflix, Tom Brady this week engaged in a little barbed mischief at Fox’s upfront presentation, where he followed the obligatory Dallas hype (“Obviously, having the Cowboys is a big draw, since [they’re] America’s Team”) with an impromptu wave to the QB (“Dak Prescott, let’s see if he can finally get through.”) The Noo Yawk crowd pounced on the comment like a goat on an old tin can, prompting Brady for Urkel to exit the moment with the faux-casual “Did that just slip away?” We’ll never truly love you, Touchdown Tahwmmy, but if you keep this sort of thing up, we’ll keep the sound on. (Eli still owns his ass.)

5) Bengals at Chiefs (CBS national window, September 15) 29.1 million viewers, 12.9 HH rating

The rivalry between Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes is the Oreo cookie to Allen-Mahomes’ Hydrox: same basic look, only one is more expensive. We are living in exciting times.

6) Cowboys at Browns (Fox national window, September 8) 28.6 million viewers, 12.8 HH rating

Brady’s gentle dig at Prescott was delivered in service of publicizing this game, which is also the first in which he will call the action alongside Kevin Burkhardt. The curiosity factor will help boost Fox’s deliveries, but a change in the NFL’s programming mandate should also go a long way toward lessening competition. In recent years, CBS and Fox have shared a two-story national window in Week 1; this season the league will return to its exclusive format. As such, Brady’s debut will go head-to-head with two regional games on CBS (Raiders-Chargers, Broncos-Seahawks), while Fox will have the coast-to-coast window alone.

Oh, and: Prescott played a key role in ending Brady’s football career when Dallas beat the Bucs 31-14 in TB12’s final NFL game. Dak threw for 305 yards, connecting on 25 of his 33 passes, four of which resulted in touchdowns. Brady was 35 of 66 for 351 yards and two aerial scores. Salty.

7) Cowboys to 49ers (NBC, Sunday Night FootballOctober 27) 25.8 million viewers, 12.3 HH rating

As much as those of us who aren’t Cowboys fans tend to get a little jaded by the team’s ubiquity, at least when Dallas is in the subway, we aren’t subjected to in-game updates about whatever his girlfriend’s girlfriend is doing. Dak Prescott is doing. in the luxury suite. The Chiefs and their No. 1 superfan will be equally inescapable this season; As a reminder, the T-Swizzle Effect is a false idea. Either way, these two NFC rivals last season finished first and third, respectively, in the race to rack up the most national NFL viewers, and there’s no reason to believe fans won’t flock to the latest edition of the Dallas-SF hate festival. .

8) Ravens at Chiefs (NBC, NFL kickoff gameSeptember 5) 25.7 million viewers, 12.3 HH rating

Another national window, another aerial battle between young AFC QBs with rocket launchers as weapons. Arguably the two most exciting field generals in the league, this matchup between Lamar Jackson and the guy from the State Farm commercials will put the latter to the test. By doing so, the broadcast will attract as many fans as last year’s. mammoth NFL opening.

9) Eagles at Cowboys (CBS national window, Nov. 10) 24.6 million viewers, 12.1 HH rating

Playoff implications. Glimpses of Jerry Jones as he sullenly watches the action at the billionaire’s booth. The entire New York market (7.6 million TV households) hates watching this close fight between the NFC East rivals. Jalen Hurts is a star. You will watch it and you will like it.

10) Ravens at Cowboys (Fox national window, September 22) 24.1 million viewers, 12.0 HH rating

Dallas. Again. Don’t shoot the messenger.

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