The NFL Draft is still fresh in our minds for just a few weeks now, and with that, I thought it was a good time to dive in. Professional football reference and see how certain positions perform as rookies in the fantasy era. The series started with the tight ends. Now, let’s move on to the defenders.
The 2024 NFL Draft was considered a quarterback-dominated draft. There were six selected in the first round, so they will stay connected forever.
Caleb Williams. Jayden Daniels. Drake Maye. Michael Penix Jr. Bo Nix.
The fantasy community expects big things from Williams and Daniels immediately; Williams currently ranks QB14 in Yahoo ADP, with Daniels just two spots behind. The other four quarterbacks are early draft fantasy reflections, as it’s unclear when any of them could start. Penix, of course, may have to wait a full season or two behind Kirk Cousins. Ah, those crazy Falcons.
So the immediate focus is on Williams and Daniels, and I think most fantasy players see exciting upside in both cases. Williams joined a Chicago offense that is unusually stocked for a team that held the No. 1 overall pick, and Daniels has the talent to be a fantasy-relevant player right away.
With that, I wanted to see what the best rookie quarterback seasons have been in the modern fantasy era (2000 to present). What is possible? What does history tell us about the reasonable range of outcomes for Williams (a pass-first guy) and Daniels (an electric runner)?
There have been many immediate fantasy hits with a quarterback taken first overall. Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, and Baker Mayfield quickly became fantasy relevant. It also shows how the NFL has changed, but consider that these five quarterbacks are the five highest-rated No. 1 overall rookie QBs of all time. Peyton Manning (the No. 1 pick in 1998) is a distant sixth.
Newton was the QB3 and fifth-best scorer in the 2011 Value-Based Draft, throwing for 21 touchdowns and 4,051 yards and scoring 14 rushing touchdowns. He was a top-five fantasy QB in five different years, and the No. 1 guy in 2015, his MVP season. Newton probably won’t make the Hall of Fame, but man, he was a comet.
Murray’s rookie season at QB8 was also sparked by accelerated production; all of his passing efficiency metrics were below league average. But he rushed for 544 yards and four touchdowns, and also played a full season, which helps. That was five years ago; Now we wonder if his career can pick up again, sparked by the arrival of rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Luck registered as QB10 in 2012, despite passing metrics that were mostly below code. Volume was his friend – 627 pass attempts, 23 touchdowns, 4,374 passing yards. Luck played in four Pro Bowls and eight playoff games before surprisingly retiring from the NFL just before the 2019 season.
Does anyone else miss Winston playing? I know what I do. Maybe we’ll see some Winston in Cleveland this year. Winston was a carnival for most of his time in Tampa Bay, starting with his rookie year (22 touchdowns, 15 picks, 4,042 yards, QB13). His magical season was the 30 of 30 circus in 2019 (33 touchdowns, 33 picks; led the league in attempts, passes and interceptions; finished as QB5). That absurd season, appropriately enough, finished with a pick 6 in overtime loss to Atlanta, his seventh pick 6 of the year. No one kept both teams in the game like peak Jameis Winston.
Baker Mayfield had to wait a few games before Cleveland gave him a chance in relief in 2018 – he led an inspiring comeback in week 3. This led to a solid QB16 season and 27 touchdown passes – at the time, a record for a rookie quarterback.
If we open the table to all rookie quarterbacks from the 2000s, there were 18 players who scored 200 or more fantasy points that freshman season. Justin Herbert moves up to second on the list (31 touchdown passes, QB9). Robert Griffin III was a revelation in 2012 (317.5 points, 28 total touchdowns, QB5). Russell Wilson was almost as good (QB9) that same year with lower volume; he made a difference in the fantasy playoffs as the Seahawks began to trust him more. Dak Prescott was the QB6 in his rookie season. CJ Stroud was the QB9 last year, instantly transforming an underdog Houston team into a playoff club.
We will not detail everyone in this 200-point club. You know the ups and downs of Mac Jones and Daniel Jones. Carson Wentz has given us a strange career. Josh Allen was more athlete than quarterback as a rookie; he’s a star now. I thought Vince Young was a star in 2006; I was certainly wrong. (Trevor Lawrence – another currently “jury-out” player, missed this rookie list by a single point. Joe Burrow easily surpasses 200 points in 2020 if not for injury.)
Some quarterbacks were common the first year, but soon after, guys like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger and Alex Smith. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer, Phillip Rivers, Patrick Mahomes, Chad Pennington, Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love – all these guys had to wait (if Rivers signed in time, we might never find out how good Drew Brees really was). Deshaun Watson was great for two months as a rookie, but then he got hurt. Lamar Jackson did a lot in seven starts as a rookie, while Jared Goff looked lost in his seven starts. Matthew Stafford had to wait for help to arrive. Michael Vick only played two games.
I don’t know how to categorize Jay Cutler, so he has his own section. He started just five games as a rookie. Johnny Manziel and JaMarcus Russell probably weren’t mature enough to succeed.
And then there are the other prisons, the Joey Harringtons and the Josh Rosens, the Tim Tebows and the Christian Ponders, the Mitch Trubiskys and the Blaine Gabberts. Jason Campbell never made it. Kyler Boller. Brady Quinn. JP Losman. There are others. We may never find out who Trey Lance really is. The same goes for Sam Darnold.
Too long, I didn’t read it
Assuming Daniels can deal with the physical rigors of running proactively, he could have a higher starting floor than Williams in 2024. Many of the rookie quarterback wins (Newton, Griffin, Murray, Wilson) have been triggered by a run ingenious. But Williams is also primed for immediate success, and we’ve seen plenty of throw-first quarterbacks light up the sky in a rookie season. Maybe Williams can challenge the kind of production that Herbert, Luck and Stroud gave us right away. Even production from Winston or Mayfield would probably be considered a win.
I’m human, I admit that some FOMO comes. Of course, I play in several leagues. Some are defenders, others are Superflex. I’ll make sure I don’t miss out on Williams or Daniels. A plausible advantage is at stake.
The draft was delicious, but it’s just the appetizer. The proof is in the pudding. I wish opening day was this weekend. The future is not written.
