Fantasy Football: Most intriguing ADPs to monitor as players move up and down draft boards this summer

Here I will examine the average draft position (ADP) of a few players that I can’t wait to follow throughout the summer. This exercise is less a “buy or sell” of some of these draft positions and more just a description of some players who could be subject to movement up or down the board as the next few months progress. I will use FantasyPros consensus best ball ADP as the source for taking the temperature of early writers across the industry.

Recent news from Rams camp That Kyren Williams will miss time this offseason due to a “foot issue” should force us to re-examine this backfield.

The coaching staff and front office told us they drafted Blake Corum in the third round because his skill set mirrored Williams, and that would allow them to not wear down the veteran throughout the season. The assumption that Corum would blend in and reduce some of the absurd touch totals and snap rates that Williams posted in 2023 was already built into the existing ADP. If the Rams had never selected a Day 2 defensive end, Williams would go in the first round and be a top-five pick on the board.

He is a perfect scheme fit for the new Rams Run game and is tied to an excellent offense overall. The only negative from Williams’ perspective is the risk of injury. He’s an undersized quarterback who missed time in his first two NFL seasons due to nagging injuries. This concern is already emerging this offseason and serves as an important reminder of Corum’s upside.

If Corum starts any games this season, he will be a consensus fantasy RB1 in the weekly rankings. He is also a strong man/gap run system and was a good college player. That’s why, despite him being the RB2 on paper, early drafters are putting him in the top 40. Maybe it doesn’t have a standalone weekly value, but it has a huge contingent value.

I also believe that we should take into account in the range of results that Corum could, at some point, simply overtake Williams. It may be a small chance – maybe just a 10% or 15% range – but to say the universe doesn’t exist would be foolish. Now that Corum will have a chance to earn some run with the top teams while Williams is sidelined, that possibility becomes even more fascinating and will make this ADP one of the most crucial developments to watch this summer.

I have a few drafts under my belt right now, and in each of them I was surprised at how late Jaylen Warren was. He’s sharing the defense with Najee Harris and that will never change. However, he finished as RB25 last season in the exact same division. You could argue that he is now going later than his floor.

The Steelers’ offense was a disaster last season. The unit trend will likely increase a bit this year. Say what you want about Arthur Smith, but we know the offense will have a well-defined identity under his watch as coordinator. With Russell Wilson and Justin Fields under center, a light receiver room and this running back duo behind a revamped offensive line, everything points to the Steelers being one of the league’s heaviest teams under Smith.

With that in mind, there should be more than enough room for both Steelers to party in 2024.

The interesting trend in ADP tracking Warren is how long he remains stuck behind his own teammate. Harris carries an RB21, 76th overall sticker at the moment, but that lead appears tenuous. You could argue just by watching these two players that Warren is clearly the more explosive and valuable one right now, even if Harris is still a solid pro.

I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that the gap between these two backs narrows at some point this offseason or that Warren surpasses Harris. Both will have fantasy value this season, one way or another.

Zack Moss, RB30 96th overall, and Chase Brown RB37, 121st overall

Unlike the Steelers’ running back duo, this is a backfield where you can’t support both. The Falcons under Smith last year ranked 32nd in neutral passing rate, while the Bengals, even without a fully healthy Joe Burrow, were first. There is not enough volume for both. You’ll probably need to flag one or the other.

As of now, I side with current ADP and have a slight bias towards Zack Moss. Chase Brown was exciting on some screen catches last season and should still play a role as a receiver.

However, according to PFF, Moss graded well as a pass blocker, which was a constant source of frustration for Joe Mixon. He’s also a capable receiver, even if Brown is more exciting. Moss showed last season that he can handle heavy workloads on the ground. If Brown doesn’t play a major role as a receiver, it will limit his path to usability.

That said, Moss is far from a proven commodity, as he was ousted from Buffalo before catching fire in Indianapolis. There’s every chance Brown enters camp and will be able to surpass the veteran to land the starting role. This ADP has a chance to turn around or reports out of camp will see Moss put significant distance between himself and Brown. There isn’t likely to be much middle ground.

In a multiverse where the Titans never signed Tony Pollard, you can almost bet that Tyjae Spears would at least 10 to 15 positional points above the RB35. Unfortunately, Pollard is a member of the Titans and currently leaves the board as RB25, 84th.

I think the early drafters are very confident in how this backfield plays out. I assume the logic is Pollard’s contract and a new coaching staff in town – never mind that the GM who drafted Spears is still in place – and if you’ve been playing fantasy long enough, you know the logical ground could be quicksand.

Forget his late season at RB15, Pollard didn’t have a good season last year and it’s easy to write him off due to injury. Pollard himself told me he didn’t feel like himself until week 11.

The problem is that Pollard’s headlining performance in Dallas was still ineffective after that point. How he projects himself into a leadership role is still an open question. The same can be said for Spears, but at least he was explosive in his work last season.

The most likely outcome is that we are looking at a confusing and difficult to decode committee backfield in Tennessee. I just wonder if at some point this summer the ADP for these backs reflects more of a question about who is the top dog in the room. That’s the correct view of these two players, for me.

This is an ADP that I almost guarantee will be blurry. I’m fascinated to watch how high it goes.

Jameson Williams is one of the big winners of the offseason. The Lions let Josh Reynolds leave and did nothing to replace him. Meanwhile, the coaching staff has relentlessly praised Williams for the way he’s progressed late last year and into the offseason. He is in line to be the second leading wide receiver besides Amon-Ra St.

My question is: Even if he has developed enough after a rough start to his career to thrive in that role, how much meat is left on the offensive bone in Detroit? The running game will continue to be a big part of the offensive identity – neither David Montgomery nor Jahmyr Gibbs are giving in to touches. St. Brown is a star and big volume flanker/slot power unit. Sam LaPorta was a revelation in Year 1. On paper, it’s hard to imagine Williams as anything other than the fifth most important player on his own offense.

The good news is that Williams can spend a monster few weeks reveling in the favorable looks he will receive at outside receiver. There simply isn’t likely to be a high or stable attendance target waiting for him this season. At his current ADP, he’s a more than plausible pick, but there’s a real risk of Williams gaining too much hype this summer.

If you were to remove the names from the jerseys and relinquish any information you know about the players involved, an unbiased observer would be quite surprised if I told them that you might get the reigning MVP’s No. 1 wide receiver as the WR26 this year.

Now, context is important. Lamar Jackson’s Ravens will never push for a full high pass attempt and tight end Mark Andrews will likely be the main target on offense. That said, Zay Flowers is coming off an excellent rookie season and, with some adjustments, could establish himself as a true No. 1 wide receiver. Even if he doesn’t develop, his skills at beating zone coverage were on full display as a rookie and that’s key in Baltimore’s offense.

WR26 looks like a solid base sticker for Flowers, but there is upside to more if he can take his game against press coverage to another level and/or he and Jackson develop better chemistry on the field. With one jump, Flowers could pass up some guys ahead of him who have questions about their teammate’s goal or the quarterback.