What Caleb Williams needs to do to break Bears rookie QB records originally appeared in NBC Sports Chicago
We’re just a few months away Bears offseason program, but much has already been made about the opportunity before the team — and the expectations for the rookie Caleb Williams. GM Ryan Polos has completely revamped the offense and Williams will have an incredible cast of playmakers to help him transition to the pro game.
But what will it really take for Williams to rewrite the record books in Chicago? Turns out not much. That’s mainly because this is the first time the Bears plan to start a rookie quarterback in Week 1 since the NFL and AFL merger in 1970. Fourth-round pick Kyle Orton started the season for the Bears in 2005, but that was only because starter Rex Grossman was injured in the preseason.
Consequently, the Bears rookie QB records are low barriers to overcome.
Here’s where things stand now and what Caleb Williams will need to do to break each record – assuming he plays all 17 games this year. Of course, injuries are impossible to predict, and if Williams misses an extended period of time, he will need to accomplish much more per game to make Bears history.
BEARS ROOKIE YARD PASSING RECORD
Current record holder: Mitchell Trubisky, 2,193 yards
What Williams needs to break it: 129.1 yards per game
Odds that Williams breaks record: High
Trubisky took over as the Bears’ starter in Week 5 of the 2017 season after Mike Glennon struggled during the first month. No one would describe the Bears’ passing attack as “explosive” in 2017, as the team finished last in the NFL with just 2,811 total passing yards. Still, Trubisky averaged 182 yards per game.
It appears that 129 yards per game is the absolute baseline for Williams’ production this year. If all goes well, there should be weeks where he has 129 yards in the first half.
BEARS ROOKIE PASSING TOUCHDOWN RECORD
Current record holder: Charlie O’Rourke, 11 touchdown passes
What Williams needs to break it: 0.7 touchdowns per game
Odds that Williams breaks record: Very high
You have to go back to 1942, when Charlie O’Rourke threw 11 touchdowns as a backup to Sid Luckman to find the best rookie touchdown season for the team. That was 82 years ago. The forward pass had only existed for 36 years at the time.
Of course, the Bears’ reluctance to start rookie QBs up to this point plays a factor in the long-standing track record, but it seems like Trubisky or Justin Fields should have easily broken this World War II-era pattern. Instead, they each finished their rookie years with a paltry seven passing touchdowns. Kyle Orton and Jim McMahon had nine.
BEARS ROKIE COMPLETION RECORD
Current record holder: Mitchell Trubisky, 196
What Williams needs to break it: 11.6 completions per game
Odds that Williams breaks record: Very high
If the Bears throw the ball 24 times per game (probable) and Williams can only complete 50% of his attempts (an extremely low bar to clear), he will break the record.
Over the past three seasons, Shane Waldron’s Seahawks have finished with the second-fewest, tied for 10th, and sixth-fewest rushing attempts in the NFL, so Williams should have plenty of opportunities to throw the ball to his cast of talented pass-catchers. . .
Furthermore, Trubisky was able to complete 59.4% of his passes as a rookie. Fields completed 58.9% of his passes, Grossman connected 52.8% of the time and Orton completed 51.6%. There’s no reason to believe Williams will perform worse than all of these guys.
BEARS ROOKIE GETS RECORD
Current record holder: Kyle Orton, 10 years old
What Williams needs to break it: 11 wins
Odds that Williams breaks record: Average
The Bears were a 7-10 team last year and improved significantly (on paper) during the offseason. Williams is super talented and is heading into what could be the best situation for a No. 1 overall QB in NFL history. He has an incredible group of playmakers to help him and an ascendant defense that has taken the football by storm in 2023.
Williams also benefits from playing against “softer” teams on the Bears’ schedule earlier in the season, which will give him time to adapt to the professional game without facing a challenge from fearsome opponents.
But each of the Bears’ NFC North opponents could give Williams and the Bears problems. The Lions were just a few plays away from reaching the Super Bowl last year. The Vikings have defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who is known for designing creative pressure schemes that give QBs problems. The Packers are the Packers and have dominated the Bears for decades.
At the time of publication, Vegas had the Bears’ WL line set at 8.5 wins this season, with -165 odds offered for the over. That means oddsmakers give the Bears a roughly 62% implied chance of winning at least nine games. But there’s a big difference between nine-win teams and 11-win teams in the NFL.
