ESPN projection system gives 49ers best odds to win Super Bowl 59 originally appeared in NBC Sports Bay Area
The 49ers will win their sixth Vince Lombardi Trophy in 2025 — that is, according to an NFL projection system.
In a recent article, Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics Department revealed that ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) predicts that San Francisco has the best odds of winning Super Bowl LIX over its rivals.
In a recent article, ESPN’s Seth Walder revealed that the Football Power Index (FPI) predicts San Francisco has the best odds to win Super Bowl LIX over rival contenders.
Here are, in order of highest percentages, the five favorites to win it all next season:
49ers (16 percent), Kansas City Chiefs (12 percent), Detroit Lions (10 percent), Dallas Cowboys (nine percent) and Baltimore Ravens (eight percent).
Of course, “Cowboys” doesn’t pair well with anything close to “Super Bowl winner,” so the projection system might not be very accurate. However, it is a contrary case promising prospects for San Francisco next season, which is generally not the case for the previous season’s Super Bowl loser.
“The 49ers’ quality advantage over the Ravens and Chiefs is narrow, but because San Francisco plays in the weaker NFC, their championship chances (16%) are notably higher than any other club’s,” Walder said. “San Francisco has a 25% chance of reaching the Super Bowl and a 16% chance of winning it – both best in the league.
“We can debate the true division of credit between quarterback Brock Purdy, coach Kyle Shanahan and the plethora of 49ers players. talented skill position playersbut it all adds up to a championship contender as long as running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, and tight end George Kittle remain healthy and productive…”
Ironically, FPI expects San Francisco to face Kansas City in the Super Bowl once again. In order of highest percentage, here are the six most anticipated Super Bowl LIX matchups:
Chiefs (four percent), Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chiefs (4), Cowboys vs. Chiefs (four percent) and 49ers vs. (three percent).
Walden concluded by sharing the FPI-designed conference championship game. In order of highest percentage, here are the seven most likely NFC championship games:
Eagles (eight percent), 49ers vs. Cowboys (eight percent), Lions vs. Eagles (six percent), Lions vs. Cowboys (six percent), 49ers vs. Packers (five percent) and 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons (four percent).
San Francisco is in all FPI projections.
Although the faithful – rightly so – probably prefer real results to predictive calculations, it is still noteworthy that super-advanced computers visualize the 49ers in a positive light before they take over the world.
San Francisco just needs to finish the job in what would be its third Super Bowl appearance since the 2019 NFL season.
