ESPN analytics give Patriots best chance at No. 1 pick in 2025 draft originally appeared in NBC Sports Boston
There is finally some optimism surrounding the New England Patriots after the franchise selected North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye with the third pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but how much of that potential will be seen on the field during the upcoming season?
It’s fair to question whether Maye will play early in the campaign, especially if the offensive line or team in general isn’t playing well. Patriots general manager Eliot Wolf was on the Green Bay Packers front office for many years, and they found success by having Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love sit for a year behind veteran quarterbacks.
Sitting Maye down and allowing him to learn the offense by observing isn’t a bad idea.
But if that happens, how many games will the Patriots win? From them The 2024 timeline is very difficultespecially out of the gate with matchups against the Bengals, Seahawks, Jets, 49ers, Dolphins and Texans in the first six weeks (in that order).
ESPN analysis recently revealed its first Football Power Index (FPI) ranking for next seasonand the Patriots are 31st, just above the last-place Carolina Panthers.
ESPN’s models also give the Patriots the best chance of landing the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
“The strength of New England’s league-leading schedule, combined with FPI’s skepticism regarding its roster, has caused the model to believe the Patriots are the team most likely to pick first in the 2025 NFL Draft , with a 22 percent chance,” wrote ESPN’s Seth Walder. “The Panthers rank lower than the Patriots in FPI, but the odds of picking No. 1 are slightly worse (21 percent).”
Here are the top five picks from next year’s draft from ESPN.
1. Patriots (22 percent)
2. Panthers (21 percent)
3. Broncos (12 percent)
4. Titans (seven percent)
5. Commanders (six percent)
The Patriots’ top-five pick would be a great outcome for next season. This roster is in dire need of elite talent, and the best way to acquire these types of players is through the draft. Trading for these players or signing them in free agency is difficult and extremely expensive.
If Maye plays as a rookie and shows real potential, It is the Patriots are capable of getting him a franchise left tackle or No. 1 wideout with their 2025 first-round pick, which would set the team up for long-term success. The Cincinnati Bengals drafted quarterback Joe Burrow No. 1 overall in 2020, struggled the following season and drafted elite wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase No. 5 overall in the next draft.
Could the Patriots take a similar path back to relevance in 2024? We’ll see, but as long as the team shows progress at key positions (QB, WR, OT, etc.) in 2024, it’s fine if they lose a lot of games and end up with another high first round pick. choice. Rebuilds rarely happen overnight, especially in professional football.
