Every few years, there’s a deal among non-quarterbacks that seems destined to change some part of the NFL salary landscape.
Ndamukong Suh’s 2015 contract with the Miami Dolphins put a defensive tackle on the threshold of earning a whopping $20 million per season. In 2018, Kirk Cousins reimagined the quarterback ladder, earning $28 million per year. In 2022, it was a bonanza: the Dolphins made Tyreek Hill the first $30 million per year contract in NFL history, the Los Angeles Rams gave defensive tackle Aaron Donald a $31.6 million per year extension – putting elite defensive linemen back into the stratosphere – and Aaron Rodgers surpassed the $50 million per season mark with the Green Bay Packers.
All of these agreements either shook the floor or pierced the ceiling. On Monday, Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings did both, signing a four-year, $140 million extension that makes him the NFL’s highest-paid non-quarterback at $35 million per season. .
Make no mistake, this was a wide receiver for quarterback money signing. It’s a deal that, when layered over the QB’s current entry-level contracts, puts Jefferson right in the middle of the pack: just behind Aaron Rodgers’ $37.5 million with the New York Jets, and just ahead of the newly minted $ 33.3 million. average salary the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are paying Baker Mayfield. It also matches the $35 million the Vikings paid Kirk Cousins in 2023.
So while Minnesota’s previous starting quarterback may have gone to the Atlanta Falcons, his salary hasn’t changed. Now the Vikings will enter 2024 with a quarterback salary on the roster… but paid to the team’s No. 1 receiver.
This is significant in Minnesota, as the Vikings are taking advantage of J.J. McCarthy’s rookie quarterback salary to accomplish all of this – managing to keep the cap balanced in 2024 while also eliminating the hit of $43.4 million in fees. of dead limits related to the departures of Cousins and defensive end Danielle Hunter. It’s even more significant for virtually every other player in the league who isn’t a quarterback, promising to lift the boats for every other elite positional player willing to negotiate contracts. This includes top offensive tackles, defensive ends and cornerbacks – which along with quarterback have traditionally been the league’s “big four” positions on the salary scale.
Well, now you can add wide receivers to that matrix as well, with eight of them now having an average annual salary of at least $25 million per season and several more on the way. Specifically: J’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals, who will likely eclipse the deal Jefferson just signed, and CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys, who is expected to eventually sign a deal that will come close to matching Jefferson’s. After that, you have two more that now seem likely to be completed in the next few months or in 2025 free agency, with the San Francisco 49ers hoping to sign Brandon Aiyuk to an extension that seems much less likely with Jefferson resetting the table, and Tee Higgins , of the Bengals, will play until 2024 for a franchise and will likely head to free agency next offseason.
All told, when these deals are completed, they are expected to be the finishing touches on a dozen receivers who are in the $25 million to $30 million per season range. This means they now have a lasting seat at the table with the running backs and elites at offensive tackle, defensive end and cornerback.
This is a game changer for the NFL. And the impact will also have repercussions in other places. Between them …
Impact on 2025 free agent WRs in the twilight of their prime
Jefferson’s deal to increase money for elite and next-level players will also have an impact on next year’s free agent class. With Higgins and Aiyuk both slated for free agency — and both seemingly destined to land in the $25-$30 million per year range — some teams will be looking for an alternative to a bidding war. Some could turn to the draft, depending on how the next crop of college prospects perform in 2024. Others will have a renewed focus on a free agent class that is expected to have some big names entering (or exiting) the twilight of their careers. As it stands, the 2025 free agent class is expected to include the likes of Stefon Diggs of the Houston Texans, Keenan Allen of the Chicago Bears, Amari Cooper of the Cleveland Browns, Chris Godwin of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Tennessee Titans, DeAndre Hopkins. Realistically, Davante Adams of the Las Vegas Raiders will also be included in that group as a salary cap casualty next offseason.
That’s a lot of old weapons for teams to consider as a stopgap measure to avoid locking themselves into a massive deal with Higgins or Aiyuk. And at least some of those players will spend the 2024 season proving they still have enough to get one last short-term deal. Defining exactly what a short-team deal will look like for some of these players is complicated, but an NFL general manager who spoke with Yahoo Sports pointed to the two-year, $26 million deal Hopkins signed with the Titans before 2023. season. At the time of this pact, Hopkins was about to turn 31 years old. The GM said it would likely be the floor for veterans who still have one to two years left and the ability to at least be a solid No. 2 option on offense.
Bottom line: The richer the elite receivers become, the poorer it gets for the guys aging out of the league… while keeping the latter on the radar as bridge solutions.
Impact of ’40 Percent Rule’ on Salary Cap Balance
Jefferson is going to be extremely expensive. Fortunately for the Vikings, they have the luxury of taking on the deal with the balance of a rookie quarterback’s contract to keep the salary cap in good shape. Other teams won’t have the same luxury, especially with high-level wideouts now ascending into an extremely lucrative salary class that used to be reserved for the “elite four”: quarterbacks, edge rushers, offensive tackles and cover cornerbacks.
Adding receivers to this mix of players commanding titanic salaries makes them the “big five” and promises to lead more teams into some precarious balancing acts if they have multiple players paid at the top of their positions.
As a general basis, some team executives prefer a rule of thumb when it comes to balancing their cap hit with multiple elite-level contracts. That baseline is this: If you have to work on multiple superstar-level contracts, the ideal threshold is to keep the top three salaries on your roster from consuming no more than 40% of the salary cap in a given year. How these three are split typically depends on whether your quarterback is on a veteran contract, which is quickly becoming the trickiest commitments in the league. Typically, if you’re a good team with a top-10 paid quarterback at the position in the league, you’re going to have multiple players who take up a large portion of the cap space. In these situations, the 40 percent rule becomes important.
For an example of how this cap ideology is projected outwards, look at the Detroit Lions, who signed big extensions this offseason to three players: quarterback Jared Goff, wideout Amon-Ra St. If current contract structures hold, True, the Lions will take the worst “full” hit of these deals at the 2026 cap, with Goff accounting for $69.6 million, St. Brown accounting for $33.1 million and Sewell accounting for $28 million. In total, a $130.7 million hit is predicted to be on the books for three players. When you project NFL cap growth, teams’ aggressive (but likely accurate) estimates for the 2026 cap hit are in the $330 million range. Not coincidentally, that would leave Goff, St. Brown and Sewell chewing up 39.6 percent of the team’s cap hit in 2026… which keeps the Lions in line with the 40 percent rule.
Before this offseason, it was rare for a team to have three players with such high salaries who weren’t quarterbacks. With receivers now turning the “big four” paid positions into “big five,” this crossroads will appear more than ever for teams. If you don’t believe that, look at the Dallas Cowboys’ conundrum with Lamb, quarterback Dak Prescott and edge rusher Micah Parsons. And after Dallas? The San Francisco 49ers will be there when quarterback Brock Purdy needs to be extended.
Impact on the wide receiver pipeline
In the five drafts from 2020-2024, there was an average of 5.6 wideouts selected in the first round. That’s 28 first-round exits in five years, the most in any five-year period in NFL history. And when you add in the 27 second-round wideouts over the same period, the league is truly in the midst of a tidal wave at the position.
The Jefferson deal and those who strike it will likely only serve to grow that pipeline. More than ever, the best prep athletes on offense are moving away from the running back position and into the wide receiver position.
The bloat in wide receiver money — combined with the league’s adoption of smaller wideouts — will certainly start to drive away some of the top talent at the cornerback position as well. Especially when players look at the size types of St. Brown, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle of the Miami Dolphins and DeVonta Smith of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Offensive creativity and expansion have made perceived deficiencies in height or size more irrelevant than ever. Players can be 5-foot-7 and get paid. They can weigh 175 pounds and hold a bag. All of this will be food for thought when it comes to some players who are choosing between following paths as cornerbacks and wide receivers. This will have an impact on the mindset of some elite prep players who are adjusting their positional aspirations. Once Lamb, Chase, Higgins and Aiyuk secure new contracts, a total of 19 wideouts will have average annual salaries of $22 million or more. Now take a moment to reflect on how many cornerbacks make that much annually.
It’s zero.
