Three possible outcomes of Aiyuk’s contract standoff with the 49ers originally appeared in NBC Sports Bay Area
Does it make sense for the 49ers to dedicate another $30 million annually (or somewhere in that neighborhood) to a wide receiver?
This is what San Francisco should determine as a second-team All-Pro receiver Brandon Aiyuk skips team’s mandatory minicamp apply leverage to get a new contract aligned with the best players in your position.
Aiyuk is under contract for the upcoming 2024 NFL season at a cost of $14.1 million. His next contract could reward him with an average salary twice as high. That’s why Aiyuk has remained sidelined from the 49ers’ offseason program, including the team’s mandatory minicamp, which opened Tuesday.
Aiyuk led the 49ers in receptions the past two seasons, totaling 153 receptions for 2,357 yards and 15 touchdowns. He is now considered one of the best receivers in the NFL.
But the 49ers already have Deebo Samuel. And Samuel and Jauan Jennings are under contract for the next two seasons.
Additionally, first-round draft pick Ricky Pearsall will have a four-year contract with the club for a fifth season.
The going rate for a wide receiver of Aiyuk’s status is approaching $30 million per season. But the 49ers must evaluate whether paying the price to keep Aiyuk on a long-term contract makes sense for them at this point.
Here are the 49ers’ three options for dealing with the Aiyuk situation:
1, Contract extension
The 49ers have signed lucrative, long-term contract extensions to star players in each of the previous four years.
They reached deals with tight end George Kittle, linebacker Fred Warner, Samuel and defensive end Nick Bosa. It’s easy to assume the same pattern will hold and Aiyuk will get his contract sometime around the start of training camp or the regular season.
But this is certainly not a slam dunk.
What makes this a little more intriguing is that the 49ers have already paid Samuel, and general manager John Lynch must determine whether it makes sense to dedicate that much money to two receivers.
AND . . . If the 49ers pay Aiyuk at the going rate, does that mean they won’t be able to retain Samuel this season?
At some point, the 49ers will have to say goodbye to some of their highest-paid players — or refuse to pay others at market rate. That’s especially true now with quarterback Brock Purdy expected to sign a contract next offseason that could pay him around $50 million per year.
2, Play the season
Once again, Aiyuk is under contract for next season. If they don’t change his contract, he will be forced to play this season on his existing contract, which would pay him more than the previous four seasons combined.
But Aiyuk would be understandably upset that the 49ers refused to compensate him at the same level as other receiver contracts in the NFL.
If Aiyuk plays this season on his current contract, the 49ers will have the option to re-evaluate his position at the end of the season and try to work out a long-term deal.
One option would be for the 49ers to place the franchise tag on Aiyuk to prevent him from becoming an unrestricted free agent. At that point, the 49ers will know if they can work out a long-term contract.
If they don’t believe they can reach a deal, they could trade him before the 2025 NFL Draft to a team that is willing to pay the 49ers a high price and satisfy Aiyuk’s contractual demands.
3, change it now
There have been trade talks about Aiyuk this offseason. But Lynch stopped taking calls about Aiyuk after the first day of the draft, when the 49ers selected Pearsall 31st overall.
Now, it doesn’t make much sense for the 49ers to trade Aiyuk because there is no one they can sign that can make up for his absence this season.
The 49ers are a better team with Aiyuk and should move toward their goal of a Super Bowl title.
The NFL trade deadline is Tuesday, Nov. 5, on or after the 49ers’ eighth game.
If the team is strong, they wouldn’t trade Aiyuk at that time. But if the season went off the rails, perhaps the 49ers would be willing to trade him at that point.
Trading Aiyuk at any point between now and this season’s deadline appears to be the 49ers’ least likely option.
