At the end of the 2022 season, Trevor Lawrence was a rising star on a team on the rise. He directed an outrageous comeback victory against the Chargers in the wild-card round, passing for 288 yards and four TDs, then his Jaguars gave the eventual champion Chiefs a mild scare the following week.
At the end of the 2023 season, however, Lawrence was widely seen as a disappointment – heading towards the bust area, if not exactly there. The internet was full of jokes about generational perspectives. All the good things Lawrence achieved the previous year were basically negated.
Today, we’re mostly on Lawrence as a potential fantasy contributor — he’s buried in the QB20 in Yahoo’s top ranks — and the world has come to extol the Texans and Colts as rising AFC South powers. In terms of reputation, Lawrence exists somewhere between an enigma and a failure.
But it’s probably worth mentioning that Lawrence is still just 24 years old. He’s been a high-profile athlete for so long that he looks like he might be 30, but he’s not. Lawrence is actually three years younger than Joe Burrow and one year younger than Jordan Love. He is just a year older than newly signed Jayden Daniels. We’re talking about a quarterback with a lot of development ahead of him.
Furthermore, let the record show that Lawrence is capable of completing throws that are absolutely disgusting and beyond the capabilities of many NFL starters:
It’s not as if the buzz that surrounded his arrival in the league was the result of collective wishful thinking. Lawrence actually has some skills.
We’re certainly not going to try to convince you that the 2023 season was secretly excellent, because that’s not really a defensible position. He’s thrown 14 interceptions in his 16 games, which is too many, and his adjusted yards per attempt has dropped to 6.7 — tied with Justin Fields and just slightly ahead of Gardner Minshew (6.5). Not good.
Lawrence did some things well last season, however, finishing among the leaders in big throws according to PFF (35) and posting a 114.9 passer rating on deep attempts. He threw 11 touchdown passes on attempts of 20+ yards, which tied him with Brock Purdy for most in the NFL.
Still, we’re not trying to overstate the impressive 21-TD, 14-INT season in which his team went 9-8 and completely collapsed in December. Lawrence was playing through an injury late last year, it should be noted, but he wasn’t exactly lights out before the ankle sprain.
If you’re looking for a fact about the opposite meh third season to give him real hope, it would have to be the outrageous number of near misses and crushing drops in Jacksonville’s passing game last year. Lawrence certainly led the NFL in college touchdowns with one foot inbounds last year (not a real statistic) and his receivers dropped 26 passes, one of the highest totals in the league.
Just look at all these pieces that could have been great:
In a game where the margin between success and catastrophe is so small, things can change quickly. Let’s be careful not to dismiss a player as young and visibly talented as Lawrence at such an early stage in his career. He’s also a low-key, dual-threat guy who has rushed for nine goals over the past two seasons.
Calvin Ridley, last year’s leading Jags receiver, was relocated via free agency, which is clearly a significant move. But Lawrence will still have Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and newcomer Gabe Davis at his disposal, along with a 6-foot-10 first-round rookie with 4.33 speed:
Brian Thomas Jr. was a spectacular receiver at LSU last year, averaging 17.3 yards per catch and reaching the end zone 17 times. His best traits line up almost perfectly with the areas in which his new quarterback has also excelled. It’s a duo that should produce several highlights next season.
But if you left Lawrence after a mostly useless 2023… well, that’s okay. This stance probably won’t burn you in a fantasy league for a QB of typical size and shape. As a general rule, though, we shouldn’t give 24-year-olds with obvious talent and a respectable track record a no-draft status.
Lawrence is just a year away from finishing QB7; he clearly has the ability (and the supporting cast) to reach that level again. He is a high option at a very low draft price.
