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The war on kickers has reached a fever pitch in recent years and I’m not here for it. 4for4 has always been a safe space for those who play in leagues with kicker vacancies, a refuge, so to speak, for fantasy managers to appreciate how the position has the potential to make a difference in their collective seasons.
At the heart of the notion of getting rid of kickers is the myth that their departure is completely random and unpredictable. Of course, there are some who were stung by Dustin Hopkins’ 21-point performance in Week 7 last year or rode Blake Grupe’s 17-point run to victory in Week 12. When these weeks happen, it’s easy to blame “randomness.” ” from the kicker spot, but very few take the time to research and see that it may not be so whimsical.
This piece will break down the best way to tackle the kicker position broken down by fantasy formats. FFPC You still have the ability to use kickers in your best-ball leagues, and of course there are plenty of revamped and seasonal leagues out there that are pro-kicker.
Trends to Look for in Seasonal Kickers
First of all, streaming is your best bet in reworked leagues, so which kicker you click on or take that sticker to the board has very little importance other than your potential Week 1 guy.
What happens in Vegas
We did not attempt to predict individual components of the shot, such as field goal attempts, extra point attempts, or shot distances, as this would be somewhat useless. Instead, we turn to Las Vegas for love in the form of team totals. The more points a team puts on the board, the higher the kicker’s score will be.
As you can see from the last four seasons, the correlation between higher team totals and higher kicker production is solid. As I dug deeper into this data, I discovered that the number of times a kicker scored 10+ fantasy points when his team’s total was 27 or more was more than double the amount when his predicted score was 26 or less .
For the anti-streaming crowd
If you don’t like passing on your kicker and would rather just stick with one throughout the season, here are some tips to increase your chances of getting the most production out of them.
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First, wait to draft your kicker until the final round of the draft. With every pick in a Fantasy Football draft, there is an opportunity cost associated with that pick. In fantasy terms, opportunity cost is simply the value of the players you don’t draft but had a chance to sign. Selecting a kicker before the last round, whether you are in a 16, 18 or more round draft, has a potentially large opportunity cost associated with it.
Notable ADP Values in Rounds 12-24 of 2023
A look at the players selected in rounds 12 to 24 in revamped leagues via Fantasy Pros last season reveals a decent group of positional players who produced early numbers and even some potential league winners. Drafting a kicker early could mean losing those points throughout the season, so however difficult it may be – and whatever FOMO you may be experiencing – put the brakes on that kicker before the final round.
Finding the Best Perfect Ball Kicker
Most of this information can also be used for those who play in revamped or seasonal leagues and don’t want to stream week after week. However, in best ball formats, there is no roster manipulation after the draft, so this advice will stay here in this section.
As always, Chase Volume
Looking for volume is nothing new when it comes to fantasy football, and applying it to kicker selection can be effective as well. High passing volume offenses lead to scoring opportunities, which is something we want from the legs of our placekickers. Teams that aren’t afraid to throw the ball tend to produce higher scoring kickers.
Kicker finishes in fantasy points per game and team passing volume, 2023
If we look at the first 14 games from last year, nine of them came from offenses in the top half of the league in total passing yards, with a few landings outside.
Look at the third one below
Another statistic that can give us some credibility in drafting a kicker for the season in top ball leagues is third down percentage. The further down the field a drive is extended, the more likely it is to score, right?
In 2020, three of the seven highest-scoring fantasy kickers came from top-eight offenses in third down efficiency. The Falcons ranked third in the league in third-down efficiency at 43.9%, which led to a K1 performance from Younghoe Koo, while Tampa Bay and Dallas finished fourth and eighth at 43.5% and 40.5% respectively, earning Ryan Succop K7 and Greg Zuerlein K6 points in total fantasy points.
The following year in 2021, we saw three of the top five offensive kickers in the top eight in third-down efficiency, with six more rounding out the top 14 highest-scoring kickers in 2021. The Patriots ranked seventh in the metric (44.0% ), leading to a K2 performance from Folk, with Gay of the Rams putting up K3 numbers with a sixth-highest third-down efficiency number of 44.7% on their offense. Matt Prater was K5 on the season with the Cardinals’ 43.5% efficiency on third down, ranking eighth in the league. The 9-14 Kickers were all offenses that cracked the top 10 in third-down efficiency in 2021, with the Eagles (4th), Bills (2nd), Butker (1st), Zuerlein (10th), Succop (5th) and Crosby ( 9th) all about productive infractions.
In 2022, four of the top seven kickers in total fantasy points were on offenses that finished the year in the top nine in third-down efficiency, with two more on teams in the top 16 in that metric. The Cowboys ranked fifth (45.2%), producing a K4 performance from Brett Maher, with the 49ers close behind (45.1%) in sixth, with a K4 finish from Robbie Gould. The high-octane Buffalo Bills posted the highest third-down conversion rate in 2023 (50.2%), with Tyler Bass finishing at K6 in overall fantasy points. Despite their offensive issues, the Falcons were able to convert third downs at the ninth-highest rate (41.8%), allowing Younghoe Koo to do his job as K7 for the season.
Last season, four of the top six kickers in total fantasy points were part of offenses that finished the 2023 season in the top 10 in third-down efficiency. The Cowboys ranked second in the metric at 49.2%, producing a K1 outing from Brandon Aubrey, with Chicago’s Cairo Santos putting up a K3 performance on the season backed by the Bears’ 41.2% third-down conversion rate (10th). Jake Elliott and Harrison Butker checked in at K4 and K6, with their teams converting third downs at the fifth (46.2%) and sixth (43.3%) highest rates, respectively.
We need to remember that the best offenses should be converting third downs to find the end zone, so sometimes you’ll only get one point instead of three or more.
The end result
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Kicker hate is on the rise, and before you let those carpet cleaners into your home and join the cult, you might want to consider how useful they can be to your team’s overall outcome.
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Sure, we’ve all been burned by the kicker position in the past, and on the surface it all seems super random, but by investing some time and effort, week-to-week kicker production may not be as arbitrary as it seems. .
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Looking at the Vegas odds, teams’ offensive efficiency and volume can also help you get the most out of your kicker regardless of the fantasy format.
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Let your league mates select their kickers very early while you sit back armed with some actionable data to guide you towards the right path.
More 4for4 reviews: June ADP Ups and Downs
This article was originally published on 4for4.com
A proud alumna of the UGA Grady College of Journalism, Jennifer Eakins has worked in the sports industry for more than a decade. She had stints at CNN Sports, Atlanta Hawks and Colorado Rockies. Her first Fantasy Football draft took place in 1996, where she selected Ricky Watters with the first overall pick, and she has been a Fantasy degenerate ever since.
