Nearly five years ago, the numbers surrounding a Dak Prescott contract extension seemed staggering. Amid uneasy negotiations between the Dallas Cowboys and their star quarterback, a very round and seemingly unbelievable number emerged in the summer of 2019:
US$40 million. By season.
The Cowboys waited too long to get ahead of the contract market, painting themselves into a negotiating corner and watching Prescott bet on himself and a league perpetually starved for quarterbacks. And the predictable outcome was getting closer with each passing day: Dallas would pay quite more than he or anyone else imagined. In spring 2021, the salary target was established through a four-year deal worth $160 million.
Now history appears to be repeating itself, with an even higher number within Prescott’s reach: $60 million per season.
A handful of NFL agents and executives with experience in quarterback deals told Yahoo Sports they believe that’s a number Prescott could now command in his next extension following the five-year, $275 million deal signed by the NFL quarterback. Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence this week. Although the average of US$55 million per season comes from a deal that technically only begins in 2026, the negotiation context has already been defined. The current fee for the quarterback position is $55 million per season. And the Jaguars paid when they still had at least four years of control remaining, through the remaining two years of Lawrence’s rookie contract and then two franchise years.
It’s clear why this has such a dramatic impact on Prescott’s next deal, with enough juice to reach the $60 million range. Prescott has a no-tag clause as part of his existing deal. This means he will be a free agent after 2024, with no commitment. That upside, along with a very strong argument that he is a more consistent and talented player than Lawrence, provides the necessary basis for a $60 million annual salary cap. And barring a dramatic collapse after a 2023 season that saw him finish second in MVP voting, he’ll likely achieve that if he wants to.
“If money is his priority, he will get there,” one prominent agent told Yahoo Sports. “Especially if it’s free agency and there’s more than one team involved.”
The agent was not alone in his opinion. Two NFL executives with experience negotiating quarterback deals at the league’s pace echoed the sentiment. One of the executives added context that he believes the pursuit of Prescott would rival the two biggest free agent quarterback searches in league history — when Tom Brady signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020 and Peyton Manning signed with the Denver Broncos in 2012.
“[Prescott] would have his pick of teams and could do free agency [tour] where he interviews the teams and not the other way around”, said the executive. “That’s what will happen if he leaves Dallas and I’m sure he knows that.”
Interestingly, there is still a chance that the high bar for the quarterback spot has not yet been secured this offseason. The Green Bay Packers continue to work on a new deal for Jordan Love, while the Miami Dolphins negotiate an extension for Tua Tagovailoa. While neither is expected to exceed Lawrence and Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow’s $55 million annual salary, the possibility remains.
As of this week, the Cowboys and Prescott have yet to talk about a new deal, leading to the very real possibility that he plays out the 2024 season and tests free agency. That said, the critical moment for both teams is only now opening, with a negotiation window that could extend until the first week of the regular season, in September. Dallas also has urgent negotiations with wideout CeeDee Lamb, whose extension could reach $35 million per season. Asked about his motivation for reaching a deal, Prescott said he was leaving it up to his representative to work out any deal.
“Business is business,” Prescott said when the Cowboys opened organized team activities in May. “I will leave it where it is treated. … I know my business will take care of itself. I’ve been there before. Experienced, just controlling what I can now.”
“I don’t play for money. I never liked it, I never cared about it, to be honest with you. I would give up just to play this game. So I allow business people to say what it’s worth, what they should give to a quarterback in my game, to a person in my game, to a leader in my game, I guess you could say. For me, it’s about, like I said, controlling what I can control and dealing with that part and the rest will take care of itself.”
