Trevor Lawrence’s new contract matches Joe Burrow’s deal in average new money. This will have knock-on effects for other defenders who are closing new deals.
There is a quarterback that doesn’t affect him. Dak Prescott.
Prescott’s leverage is not driven by the question of whether anyone matches or beats Burrow’s average annual new money. What matters to Prescott is the fact that he has a straight shot at free agency, free and unhindered by the Cowboys’ ability to keep him from hitting the open market.
This is the direct consequence of the four-year, $160 million deal Prescott signed after the 2020 season. The contract was designed to avoid either the franchise tag or the transition tag. It was also designed to get the Cowboys to extend the deal for another year.
One factor in that end was the massive 2024 cap hit, which the Cowboys restructured slightly to $55.455 million. And if Dak leaves next year, the Cowboys will take on another $54.465 million cap hit.
The only way to reduce these numbers will be to sign a new deal with him. The only way to prevent him from becoming an unrestricted free agent will be to sign him to a new contract.
Extending Dak is also a potential key to extending receiver CeeDee Lamb (who wants his next deal now) and linebacker Micah Parsons (who claims to be patient but definitely shouldn’t be).
Dak’s value in his next deal comes from his leverage in the final year of the current one. They need to lower his cap number for 2024. They need to avoid having his contract voided and dump a $54.465 million cap hit on his name on the 2025 books, regardless of whether they re-sign him.
Dak possesses exactly the kind of trade leverage that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has routinely capitalized on throughout his career. Dak just has to ask himself, “WWJD?”
The “J” in this formulation would not please; he squeezed balls. By not accepting everything the Cowboys offered, that’s what Dak is doing.
That’s why no one’s contract matters anymore. Dak already had the power to get a long-term contract that starts at 6, thanks to the contract he signed three years ago. And that’s why we said from the beginning that of all the quarterback contracts signed at or near the same time, Dak’s was the best. Better than the Patrick Mahomes deal. Better than the Josh Allen deal.
The beauty of Dak’s contract is that it forced the Cowboys to re-sign him after three years or face chaos. This chaos is already unfolding, through the inability to even consider fulfilling Jerry’s empty promise to “go all in.”
