There is a lot of fantasy excitement tied to the 2024 Atlanta Falcons. New defender. New technical team. Young back, young No. 1 receiver. Easy scheduling, also. It seems like it could easily be an offensive fantasy destination, a fun place to park our investments.
So why wasn’t Kyle Pitts invited to the party? He is the afterthought of fantasy, lost in the shuffle.
I understand that Pitts was a slight disappointment in fantasy his last two seasons. After that sensational 2021 rookie year, when he recorded the second-most yards by a first-year tight end, he has been the TE33 (missing seven games) and TE13 the past two seasons. Obviously, he didn’t return his ADP in these frustrating campaigns. He has scored just six touchdowns in three years, and last year his yards per target dropped to 7.4.
There are plausible explanations, of course. Late coach Arthur Smith seemed to be in over his head running the Falcons’ offense. Desmond Ridder was one of the worst defenders in the league (backup Taylor Heinicke was no better). And Pitts has suffered a knee injury for most of the year in addition to a hamstring injury in October. He wasn’t healthy, nor was the Falcons offense.
It’s important to remember that Pitts is still just 23 years old (he turns 24 in early October) and was the fourth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft – the first tight end selection ever. Career arc and pedigree are all on his side. And the jump from Ridder and friends to Kirk Cousins is monumental.
Cousins is well above the league average in quarterback rating over the past nine seasons and last year all of their efficiency metrics were well above league average. He’s still the right answer, a positive quarterback, entering his age-36 season.
New offensive coordinator Zach Robinson comes from the Sean McVay tree – Robinson has done a lot of offensive work with the Rams over the last five years. There are obvious reasons for optimism in this.
And maybe I buried some of the lede – the draft price on Pitts is shockingly affordable as we head toward the start of draft season. While Bijan Robinson is still a first-round pick in most leagues and Drake London’s year-over-year ADP has increased in the wake of Atlanta’s improvements, Pitts’ market hasn’t changed. He was a sixth-round overall ADP pick last year, and that’s where you’ll find him this year.
Interesting data here:
The FF community is so excited about what the ATL move will do for Drake London’s value that he went from a 4th/5th round pick last year to a 2nd round pick this year.
Pitts was a 6th round pick last year… and a 6th round pick this year https://t.co/HbsbK703kZ
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) June 6, 2024
Of course, this ADP could be corrected quickly over the summer. Flourish and Scott Barrett are two respected fantasy experts who could influence the market. I suggest you take advantage of this Pitts discount while you can. It’s still possible he’ll go to the moon, just as most of us hoped a year or two ago.
Pitts is already a key player in my initial portfolio. And I’m not going to back down if the market is going to donate these things. Pitts is currently the TE7 in Yahoo drafts, with an average selection of 65.1. Keep pressing the draft button.
