In two years, the market went from $46 million (Deshaun Watson) to $51 million (Jalen Hurts) to $55 million (Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence). Inevitably, a quarterback will average $60 million per year in new money.
Who will be? Rich Eisen asked this question recently. I threw out a few possible names. Since then, I’ve had the opportunity to go team by team and compile a complete list of possibilities.
In the end, it will be a product of negotiations and circumstances. More than one of the names listed below could reach $60 million. For now, the question is who gets there first?
Here they are, listed in a flexible hierarchy from most likely to least likely. For anyone not on the list, it’s not just unlikely – it’s probably impossible.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys: He is currently in the best position to get a contract that starts at 6. Between the market growth, continued salary cap increases, and the leverage that comes from the final year of the contract that the Cowboys waited too long to give him, Prescott could basically set your price. Why wouldn’t that price be $60 million a year?
Jordan Love, Packers: The Packers and Love are working on a new contract. With $11 million in money owed for 2024, a five-year, $300 million extension would have an average new money of $60 million — and an average total money of $51.83 million over six years. With no owners diverting profits to building or maintaining superyachts, the Packers can reinvest all profits into their football operations. If they really believe in Love (and if they can work out the contract to release them after two or three years), it wouldn’t be a shock if he got $60 million first.
Matthew Stafford, Rams: He originally wanted a new contract to have fully guaranteed money beyond 2024. Now that the guy he beat in the Super Bowl is on $55 million (Burrow), a guy who never made it past the divisional round is on $55 million . (Lawrence), and the guy the Rams gave up a first-round pick to get off their books is at $53 million (Jared Goff), why shouldn’t Stafford want $60 million?
With $94 million owed to Stafford over the next three years, a three-year, $180 million extension would get him $60 million a year in new money — with a six-year total average of just $45.66 millions.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: He wants a market-level agreement. The Dolphins have yet to offer one. Whatever they put on the table, it certainly won’t reach 60 million dollars a year. At best, he would receive somewhere around $55.1 million, raising the current bar a bit.
That said, don’t rule out the possibility of a back-end year or two of fugazi that artificially inflates the average. The Dolphins already did this with Tyreek Hill, moving his last contract from a real $25 million to a fake $30 million a year in new money. If Tua wants to tell the world he got $60 million, there’s a way to get there without actually going there.
Brock Purdy, 49ers: He’s not eligible for a new contract before the end of the 2024 regular season. If no one else has reached $60 million by then, could he? For Purdy, having $1.1 million in salary in 2025 makes it easier to increase the new money average. A five-year extension worth $300 million translates to a six-year contract worth $301.1 million, with an average signing value of $50.18 million.
That still seems like a lot more than the 49ers would like to pay.
CJ Stroud, Texans: The window for a new Stroud deal opens after the conclusion of the 2025 regular season. If no one else reaches $60 million by then, Stroud likely will. He would have $1.145 million for 2026 and a fifth-year option for 2027. A five-year, $60 million extension would imply another much smaller total payment at signing.
Josh Allen, accounts: With each new quarterback contract, Allen’s six-year, $258.3 million extension becomes more evident. He has an average new money of $43.05 million. So one of the two best quarterbacks in the NFL isn’t even in the top 10 in average new money.
He has four years left on his current contract, with a total payout after 2024 of $156.05 million. That’s an average of $39 million per year at the end of his current contract. The Bills may not want to hear this, especially with upcoming cap charges of $60.7 million, $56.4 million, $49.4 million and $45.7 million, but Allen is underpaid. He should want a new deal. He should get a new deal. If his agents are currently rattling the cage behind the scenes, he could be the first to receive $60 million.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: Mahomes agreed to an ultra-long-term deal worth $45 million per year in new money. The contract ties him to the Chiefs through 2031 (possibly his first season at Kansas) and depends on the organization’s willingness to move money around to ensure the NFL’s most valuable player feels he is being treated fairly. Last year, for example, the Chiefs reshuffled their finances after the Burrow deal was reached to give Mahomes a cash flow of $52 million per year from 2023 to 2026.
The Chiefs hope to continue doing this every few years. At some point, a new agreement will be necessary. If this were happening now, he would certainly be receiving $60 million a year in new money — especially since he’s worth much more than that to the Chiefs and the league in general.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens: From the player with the most value to the league to the defending Most Valuable Player in the league. He only has one season left on his current contract. It’s highly unlikely the Ravens would consider giving him a new one right now. Still, on some level, Lamar Jackson may be looking at the continued growth of the market and wondering what’s wrong with this picture?
Consider this wrinkle. If the Ravens had given Jackson a market-level deal after 2020 (and not after 2022), he would be three years into his second deal and, building on last year’s MVP award, in position to ask for an extension. That logic could lead you to order one now.
At this point, there’s no reason to think Jackson wants to revisit his contract. If he unexpectedly decides to take a stance, he could emerge from a training camp holdout as the first $60 million quarterback.
