2023 statistics (ranking)
Points per game: 21.2 (18th)
Total yards per game: 323.2 (20th)
Plays per game: 64.5 (9th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 33.1 (28th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.06 (24th)
Rushing attempts per game: 31.4 (2nd)
Rush EPA per play: -0.05 (9th)
Coaching team
Throw away what you know about the Bears offense. Last year’s -4% higher-than-expected pass rate – the third lowest in the league – has gone with the wind. Just like OC Luke Getsy. Just like QB Justin Fields. Just like almost everything that has defined this moribund offense over the past few lottery-winning seasons. Fortunately, that doesn’t include No. 1 WR DJ Moore, who is joined by backups Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. They will receive passes from No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, who will receive play calls from former Seahawks OC Shane Waldron. The Bears’ new offensive coordinator is a disciple of Sean McVay and Pete Carroll, but the biggest influence will likely end up being Williams himself.
Passing game
QB: Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent
WR: DJ Moore, Tyler Scott
Authors: Keenan Allen, DeAndre Carter
Authors: Rome Odunze, Velus Jones
TE: Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, Marcedes Lewis
That’s because no matter how much an OC leaves a mark on the offense, attempts tend to be a quarterback statistic, and few quarterbacks have attempted more passes over the last two years than USC’s triggerman. Williams (6’1/214) enters the NFL coming off a “down” season where the Trojans’ line and supporting cast issues “limited” him to 3,633 yards and 30 scores in 12 games, after those numbers were 4,537 and 42, respectively, in 2022. Despite his protection issues, Williams continued to look downfield when he came out of the pocket and remained lethal off the platform.
While he’s by no means an elite runner or a true dual-threat, Williams can do leg damage — he’s rushed for 21 points over the last two seasons — and is difficult to take down due to a thick build a la Kyler Murray or possibly even Jalen hurts. A true franchise-changing talent for a long-beleaguered Bears quarterback, Williams is one of the most important players to enter the NFL this decade. Williams’ special qualities combined with his ready-to-use supporting cast make him the rare pass-first rookie QB who deserves to start the season in the top 12 of Fantasy. If Williams continues to call his own number at the goal line, it will all improve.
Between Moore, Allen and Odunze, Williams has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal, but it was Moore who made fantasy managers rich in 2023. After years of playing quarterback in a basement in Carolina, even Justin Fields was enough. upgrade for Moore to hit top-12 at receiver. Top 10, in fact, as only CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua and AJ Brown have generated more total PPR points among wideouts. Moore’s increased target competition is bad news on paper, but the Bears’ passing volume will also skyrocket. Capable of causing damage at every level of the field — he was a YAC, yards per route run, and field dynamo in 2023 — Moore has the kind of skill set that often cracks the top 12, even in crowded skill groups. He’s a safe borderline WR1/2 pick who could end up being terribly underrated.
The matter is less resolved with Allen. On the one hand, he is coming off his most productive season since 2017. On the other hand, he is 32 years old after missing the last four games of 2023 due to a mild heel injury. He will also have a less happy offense, even if the Bears greatly increase his attempts, as expected. No team cared less about running a serious, rushing offense than the pre-Harbaugh Justin Herbert Chargers. Those are the concerns, but the reality is that they simply don’t make slot dominators as pure as Allen. He opens up at will in the middle of the field and will be a godsend for a young quarterback adapting to the speed of the NFL game. Allen and his creaky hamstrings are always an injury risk, but he is among the top floor WR3 options in fantasy football and could easily return to the top 24 in PPR.
If Moore is the alpha and Allen the “sure thing,” rookie Odunze is the positive bet. It’s highly unusual for a top-10 receiver to barely crack the top-40 at position in top summer ball drafts, but that was the case in the off-season for Odunze as managers understandably question where targets will come from. In fact, they don’t have to look far to find a cautionary tale: last year’s 20th overall selection, Jaxon Smith-Njigba… under Waldron in Seattle.
But the comparisons are superficial. For starters, there’s a big difference between being the No. 9 outside threat and the No. 20 slot machine. Second, Waldron’s boss is no longer “establishment” legend Pete Carroll, but the man drafted to be the first bona fide franchise quarterback in Bears history, Williams. A Bears team that relied on 11 personnel/three receiver sets just 57.8 percent of the time last season will undoubtedly see that number climb into the 70-75 range.
It also makes all the sense in the world for the Bears to feed Odunze’s dominant boom/bust cap targets and red zone looks. This means there will be weeks where he barely contributes, but others where he accumulates enough fantasy points to turn around games. Odunze is a perfect WR4 driver based on his draft pedigree, on-paper skill set, and offensive setup.
The Bears’ last pass catcher of note is TE Cole Kmet, who was Fields’ No. 2 target in 2023. He will now be No. 3 at best and likely No. 4 behind the Bears’ new trio of receivers. Bears. It doesn’t help that fellow playmaker TE Gerald Everett has been added to the group. Everett won’t overtake Kmet for No. 1 seam status, but Kmet was someone who couldn’t afford to lose any more looks after the additions of Allen and Odunze.
If there’s any good news, it’s that 6-foot-6 Kmet’s red zone targets should remain in the 15-20 range thanks to the Bears’ overall passing prospect boost. At just 25 years old, Kmet has also maintained a consistently upward professional trajectory. It still won’t be enough to return him to the top 12 at tight end. Kmet will be looking for touchdown-based TE2 value and matchup-based TE1 streamer appeal. Barring Kmet’s injury, Everett won’t see enough looks to break into the top 24.
Racing game
RB: D’Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson
OL (LR): Braxton Jones, Teven Jenkins, Ryan Bates, Nate Davis, Darnell Wright
The Bears remade their backfield by letting D’Onta Foreman walk and surprisingly squandering a three-year, $24 million contract on D’Andre Swift. While Swift has been something of a disappointment for the Eagles in 2023, his salary makes it clear he will be the Bears’ No. 1 pick.
Before we move forward with Swift, we must look back. Swift’s first 1,000-yard campaign as a rusher last season was offset by drastically reduced receiving efficiency and a ridiculously low touchdown total playing behind dual-threat Jalen Hurts at the goal line. Swift’s 0.82 yards per carry was 44th among running backs, and well outside the standards of his previous career. On the ground, NextGenStats ranked him as the 10th most yards on the field. PFF measured him a distant 52nd in average yards after contact.
None of this is particularly surprising. Swift has always been best utilized as a defender, but that’s a role that barely exists in Philadelphia. He also would never win a touchdown contest with Hurts. The Bears are guaranteed to restore the receiving threat to Swift’s game, while he should be Option A at the goal line. Wildly drafted for years, Swift has probably finally found a suitable home on the RB2/3 border.
Swift’s main backup is Khalil Herbert, at least for now. A potential trade target before Week 1, Herbert has contingency value but would undoubtedly form a committee with Roschon Johnson in the event of an injury to Swift. Even when healthy, Swift will likely remain in the 60-70 percent snap range, but Herbert will have difficulty getting enough high-value touches to create independent PPR value.
Total wins
The Bears’ over/under is generally set at 8.5. That’s a number Chicago hasn’t hit since Matt Nagy sat out in 2018. An easy schedule will help the 2024 search, as Warren Sharp ranks the Bears as having the third-easiest roster in the league. If they want to overtake, it will likely have to be sooner, as Week 13 and beyond includes dates with the 49ers, Packers and Lions X2. It’s easy to be optimistic after the Bears finished 2023 on a high note and landed the best quarterback in years in Williams, but 2024 feels like a final reset before the future arrives in earnest. I’m going to take the under in a division with no easy exits.
