2023 statistics (ranking)
Points per game: 21.5 (16th)
Total yards per game: 318.9 (22nd)
Plays per game: 61.6 (24th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 39.1 (5th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.05 (16th)
Rush attempts per game: 22.5 (30th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.1 (15th)
Coaching team
Zac Taylor remains head coach of the Bengals for a fifth season. After two rebuilding campaigns, Taylor has gone 31-19 with a 5-2 postseason record over the last three years. Cincinnati missed the playoffs in 2023, but did so after losing Joe Burrow to a hand injury in Week 11. Taylor may find himself on the hot seat with a slow start, but his position in Cincinnati revolves around postseason success . As long as the Bengals make noise in the playoffs, there should be no doubt about their job security.
The biggest change for the Bengals will be the loss of offensive coordinator Brian Callahan. Taylor tabbed him as Cincy’s OC when he took over as head coach in 2019 and the two have remained in their respective roles since. Callahan was selected as the Titans’ next head coach this offseason. While Callahan has added a lot of value through his offensive design and pregame preparation, Taylor has always been on the headset, calling the plays on game day. That will make the transition for Dan Pritcher — the former quarterbacks coach and current offensive coordinator — much easier.
Passing game
QB: Joe Burrow, Jake Browning
Authors: Ja’Marr Chase, Jermaine Burton
Authors: Tree Higgins, Andrei Iosivas
Authors: Trenton Irwin, Charlie Jones
TE: Mike Gesicki, Tanner Hudson
The Bengals’ passing attack was divided into stretches of bad plays from Joe Burrow, elite plays from the superstar passer and surprisingly competent plays from their backup Jake Browning. Burrow suffered a calf injury late in the offseason and didn’t look good to start the year. He ranked 27th in EPA per play and 31st in completion percentage above expected, while averaging a comically low 8.4 fantasy points per game through four weeks. Burrow turned things around in Week 5 with 317 yards and three scores against the Cardinals. Ja’Marr Chase also caught his first, second and third touchdowns of the season in this game.
From Week 5 to Week 10, Burrow averaged 296 passing yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game. Chase’s numbers skyrocketed to eight catches for 107 yards and one touchdown per game. Burrow was QB7 in EPA per play during this period and led the NFL in CPOE. A wrist injury in Week 11 ended the Bengals’ season prematurely. Chase’s numbers have understandably dropped in Jake Browning’s seven starts. Chase was a star when Burrow was at full strength and betting against “injury-prone” players with elite upside has been a terrible position to be in throughout the year. Burrow is leaving as the QB9 at the top of the eighth round. Chase remains expensive, but the discount on Burrow makes the Bengals’ stack even more attractive.
Tee Higgins’ prospect is a little less exciting. The fifth-year receiver has been pushing for a new contract for over a year, but he will be forced to play for the franchise in 2023. The Bengals are playing hardball with Higgins and may have good reason to do so. Joe Burrow’s aDOT has dropped in every year of his career and reached an incredibly low mark of 6.9 yards in 2023. The Rise of Checkdown by Denny CarterBurrow was among the most conservative defenders in the league against two high coverages.
Higgins, primarily a deep boundary receiver, has seen his target share drop in consecutive years, hitting a career low of 18 percent last season. His YPRR (1.66) and PFF (70.9) receiving grade also reached rock-bottom levels in 2023. Burrow’s dwindling target depth was far from the only reason for Higgins’ decline. He dealt with hamstring and rib injuries throughout the year. The quarterback change also impacted him. Still, it’s fair to say that the “He’d be a WR1 on most other teams” hype has faded.
The remaining targets in the passing game are nothing more than the best ball throwers. Mike Gesicki is projected to start at tight end. He fell out of favor in Miami in 2022 and was unable to find a role during a one-year deal in New England last year. Gesicki’s YPRR has dropped in three consecutive seasons and he is coming off a career low in Open Score, according to ESPN’s player tracking data.
The WR3 role is up for grabs with Tyler Boyd out of the picture. Jermaine Burton is the most intriguing player in the mix. The third-round wideout was a big-play specialist at Georgia and Alabama. However, Burton ran 73 percent of his routes from an outside alignment in college and the Bengals have previously deployed Chase and Higgins primarily on the outside. Burton’s role will need to change in the NFL or the Bengals could turn to Charlie Jones or Trenton Irwin as Boyd’s replacement.
Jones was a fourth-round pick last year and 70 percent of his 30 routes as a rookie were in the slot. Irwin is a versatile veteran who will be active in special teams duties. If his younger contemporaries aren’t up to the WR3 task, he’ll take over the role, though it’s hard to see him having much fantasy value given his lack of production over five NFL seasons.
Racing game
RB: Zack Moss, Chase Brown, Chris Evans, Trayveon Williams
OL (LR): Orlando Brown Jr., Cordell Volson, Ted Karras, Alex Cappa, Amarius Mims
Joe Mixon was a mainstay of the Bengals’ ground game for years, but his expensive contract became unsustainable for the team after the 2023 season. He was on the verge of being cut before the Texans sent Cincy a late pick for him. . The Bengals then signed Zack Moss to a two-year, $8 million contract in free agency. Moss is coming off a strong season as the Colts’ occasional replacement for Jonathan Taylor. Moss was active in six of Taylor’s seven absences. He also worked while the Colts got Taylor back into the lineup. In six games with a snap share above 75 percent, Moss averaged 20 carries for 87 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. He added more than two receptions for 18 yards in those contests as well. Moss posted 17 PPR points per game in this cow role. He had a great season in advanced metrics, ranking seventh in above-expected rushing yards per carry and 13th in success rate. Moss will get the first chance as a starter on a Bengals offense that should be among the league’s best in scoring. The Bengals were without Joe Burrow for seven games and still landed the 10th most running backs of the five.
Moss is joining Chase Brown in Cincinnati’s backfield. The Bengals nabbed Brown with the No. 163 overall pick last year. He got a part-time position over time and did not disappoint when called upon. Among players with at least 40 carries, Brown ranked 11th in PFF’s Elusiveness Rating and 16th in yards after contact per carry. He also showed great potential as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
That was the second-fastest play of the season, according to Next Gen Stats. Brown should at least play a change-of-pace role early in the season and will be a viable FLEX option. If he pushes Moss for more work, Brown has the potential to be a breakthrough RB2.
Total wins
DraftKings Over/Under: 10.5
Choice: it’s over
The juice is appropriately tilted to the upside, with bettors betting -140 to back the Bengals for 11 or more wins. That alone would make me lean towards the under at +120 odds, although this is ultimately a fair line. There are some other lines with some value in DK. Burrow’s total passing yards are set at 4,000.5 with -115 odds for the over. Ignoring Burrow’s incomplete final game, he was on pace for 4,171 yards. His pace after the slow start would see him reach the 4,000 mark with weeks to spare.
