2023 statistics (ranking)
Points per game: 21 (19th)
Total yards per game: 298.4 (26th)
Plays per game: 59.8 (29th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 33.2 (27th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.01 (21st)
Rushing attempts per game: 26.5 (18th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.11 (17th)
Coaching team
Sean Payton enters his second season as coach of the Broncos team that fought for the AFC West last season. His adjustments improved the team from five wins to eight, but the offense ranked in the bottom half of the league in total yards and points per game under Payton and OC Joe Lombardi. Part of this can be attributed to the ghost of Russell Wilson, who has now been traded for a fresh Bo Nix for Payton to mold.
Under Payton, the team’s drop and run EPA metrics per game improved slightly from 2022, but they averaged fewer yards per game and plays per game. The main metric of improvement (at least the one that matters most) was that the Broncos went from averaging 16.9 points per game to 21 last season. Payton has had a storied coaching career and has undoubtedly made the Broncos’ offense less sickening to watch. Although the team still has a long way to go to become competitive, Payton has signed for four more years. More points under a good coach means more fantasy opportunities, and Payton at the helm makes the Broncos offense more digestible on the fantasy front.
Passing game
QB: Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham, Zach Wilson
Authors: Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin
Authors: Marvin Mims, Devaughn Vele
WR: Josh Reynolds, Tim Patrick
TE: Adam Trautman, Greg Dulcich
The Broncos managed 191.9 passing yards per game last season, 24th in the NFL with Russell Wilson and Jarrett Stidham taking photos. While still paying off Wilson’s albatross contract, the Broncos now trade him for the No. 12 pick, Bo Nix. An older prospect, at 24, he spent his final two college seasons at Oregon. In both seasons as a Duck, Nix had at least a 72% completion percentage and at least 8.8 yards per attempt. He shared first-team reps with Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson in OTAs, receiving compliments from Sean Payton for being a good decision maker. Neither Stidham nor Wilson are significant opponents for a guy with first-round draft capital, so expect Nix to start sometime in 2024, if not right away. Showing off some running ability in college, Nix will be the QB3 driver this season.
Nix will throw to a receiving corps led by Courtland Sutton. Last season, Sutton was a touchdown machine, scoring ten on 59 receptions for 772 yards. Jerry Jeudy was traded to the Browns, leaving Sutton as the top returning receiver. His size makes him a great target in the red zone, useful for a rookie quarterback like Nix. Expect some touchdown regression, but more opportunities than last season, putting Sutton in fantasy WR4 range.
Nix’s college receiver Troy Franklin has the advantage of being the No. 2 receiver. He fell to the fourth round of the NFL Draft, but had a strong connection to Nix at Oregon. Totaling 1,383 yards on 81 receptions with 14 touchdowns, Franklin was Oregon’s best player. While his starting capital was lower than expected, there is something to be said about the connection between the college quarterback and receiver. The Broncos gave Nix a comfortable option in the passing game and that alone puts Franklin in the WR5 fantasy mix for 2024.
The rest of the receivers have a varied experience. Marvin Mims will enter his second season after catching just 22 passes for 377 yards last year. Sean Payton didn’t use Mims much in the attack, as 38% of offensive snaps. With the new kickoff rules, we can expect Mims to continue returning kicks, a role for which he was named Second-Team All-Pro and Pro-Bowler. He could share snaps in the slot with newly signed Josh Reynolds, who is coming off a 604-yard season with the Lions. Reynolds is a reliable mid-range shooting target, but he hasn’t yet been a top-60 fantasy player.
Tim Patrick returns after consecutive seasons suffering torn ACL and Achilles tendon. The Broncos will try to get him into the offense, but those are two brutal knee injuries to recover from. Devaughn Vele is a 26-year-old seventh-round rookie who could see some special teams play. Mims and Reynolds are dart throwers at the back end of the Broncos’ offense, while Patrick and Vele likely won’t have fantasy relevance.
At tight end, Adam Trautman and Greg Dulcich are the Broncos’ main options. Trautman has been a favorite of Sean Payton since his Saints days, particularly flexing his skills as a blocker. With just 35 targets last season, Trautman is unlikely to be the team’s starting tight end. That role should belong to Dulcich, who battled hamstring problems in just two games last season. As a 2022 rookie, he had an ADOT of over 10 yards and scored 55 targets in 10 games. Dulcich is a positive TE2 move if he can stay healthy in 2024.
Racing game
RB: Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, Blake Watson
OL (LR): Garett Bolles, Ben Powers, Luke Wattenberg, Quinn Meinerz, Mike McGlinchey
The running game was middle of the pack last season, averaging 106.5 rushing yards per game, 18th in the NFL. The team’s presumed starter, Javonte Williams, was recovering from ACL and LCL tears and did not see a strong turnout. He played in 16 games, averaging 3.6 yards per carry. The upside Williams received saved his fantasy value. With 47 receptions for 228 yards, he was RB3 this season. Behind Williams, Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin shared opportunities. McLaughlin took over as the No. 2 primary, rushing 76 times for 410 yards. Perine was the leading pass catcher, finishing with 50 receptions for 455 yards.
Offseason rumors point to Broncos backfield prepared to compete for committee functions. However, Williams is expected to have more impact after an additional season following his torn ACL. Expect him to be the primary rusher and in the RB2 mix. McLaughlin is the next player on this list. This is an offense that will generate a lot of backfield receptions again, and with pass-catching upside, McLaughlin is a solid FLEX option in the RB4 lane.
The Broncos also drafted Audric Estime in the fifth round of this year’s draft. He didn’t test well at the combine, with a 4.71-second 40-yard dash and OK numbers across the board, but Estime is a productive young quarterback. In his final season at Notre Dame, Estime rushed 210 times for 1,341 yards and 18 touchdowns. He has never been a great receiver, recording 17 receptions for 142 yards last season. Estime still won’t be able to be a starter, but he could see some considerable runs, especially if Williams fails at any point. At quarterback, Bo Nix also saw some quick opportunities. Last season, Russell Wilson saw a mix of contests and projected runs. While Nix will take some time to adjust to the NFL, he has the mobility to contend and could also see some projected runs, increasing his fantasy value.
The offensive line looks largely the same as last season, but with Lloyd Cushenberry under center. 2022 fifth-rounder Luke Wattenberg could be in line to start, with free agent signing Sam Mustipher also getting a chance. The line was ranked 7th in the league by PFF at the end of the season and should continue to provide running lanes for the quarterback committee it will run through. A healthier Williams will upgrade the running game’s -0.11 EPA per play from last season to complement an unproven passer at quarterback.
Total wins
The Broncos’ DraftKings win total is set at 5.5 for this season. After going 8-9 last season, sports betting appears to be regressing. With a new rookie quarterback and not many offensive additions, it is justified to expect a season with few wins. The rebuild will take some time and with such a low win total, they are a team in the “surprisingly exceeding expectations ahead of schedule” range. For those who believe in Sean Payton developing Bo Nix quickly with good defense and running game, the balance looks good. However, those who don’t think the QB6 of the rookie class will lead the team to six or more wins (or even think Stidham or Wilson will start at some point) would be left short.
