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An old fantasy football theory is that players perform best when they are in the final year of their contract. Last off-season, the great Brandon Niles did an in-depth analysis of this phenomenon to assess whether it was sustainable – you can read it here. Today, I will add to this data the information we know about the 2023-24 season in order to identify potential contract year gems for this upcoming fantasy football season.
Recap: Is there a raise in the contract year?
Here’s a TLDR on what Brandon learned from analyzing contract year data from 2015 to 2022:
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Quarterbacks: Younger quarterbacks entering contract years tend to see a jump in production, while older quarterbacks entering contract years do not, as they are typically journeymen or near the end of their careers.
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Running Back: Certain running backs have excelled in contract years, but situation and volume tend to be much better predictors of success than contract status.
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wide Receivers: Receivers experienced the biggest jumps in production during their contract years. Most successful contract year receivers were in stable situations (secure position on the depth chart, continuity on offense, etc.).
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Tight Ends: There is a smaller sample size for tight ends compared to other positions, but the success of tight ends in the contract year is more closely tied to opportunity than anything else.
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General, contract year status is not an independent indicator of whether a player will be productive in Fantasy or not. It is best used as a tiebreaker when deciding between two players for the draft.
Players in contract year in 2023
Now, let’s take a look at how contract year players performed last year to paint a clearer picture of whether there is a contract year bump. Note that I did not include players who received an extension during the season or were cut during or after the season ended.
Quarterbacks
2023 was a very successful year for defenders under contract. Cousins, Mayfield and Minshew earned multi-year contracts after exceeding expectations last season. Mayfield and Minshew fit the profile of less experienced quarterbacks who needed big seasons to prove they could be starters in the NFL. Cousins, on the other hand, is something of an anomaly. He tore his Achilles tendon in the middle of a statistically impressive season, but landed a big contract with the Falcons as the biggest fish in a small pond of quarterback free agency.
Runners
There have been plenty of big-name running backs in the final year of their contract in 2023, several of whom have taken pay cuts and changed teams this off-season. This makes sense as we can see from the data that almost all RBs from last year’s contract year saw a drop in production. Running backs have notoriously short careers in the NFL, and this data is further proof of that notion. Therefore, I would avoid signing older running backs just because they are in a contract year.
D’Andre Swift and Devin Singletary had more consistent production between 2022 and 2023. However, it’s difficult to say that the contract was the reason behind their performance – Swift and Singletary were given larger roles in their respective crimes, so the volume likely was a much more important component of its success.
Wide receiver
Of that group, Evans and Pittman fit in very well with the rules that Brandon has established. Both were their teams’ best receivers and had pretty steady quarterback play (from the aforementioned Baker Mayfield and Gardner Minshew, which is interesting). Higgins dealt with injuries for much of the season, while Brown had to deal with an offense led by Clayton Tune and Joshua Dobbs for much of the year.
Tight ends
We were able to increase our sample size of tight ends after last season, but there isn’t much promise in the results – Hunter Henry and Dalton Schultz were the only contract-year tight ends who increased their production over the previous year. I would continue to emphasize opportunity and quality of offense more than contract status for streaming tight ends in 2024.
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Potential goals in 2024
Here are some notable players currently scheduled for a contract year in 2024 and whether or not they are worth considering as potential contract year jump candidates.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott reminds me a lot of the Kirk Cousins situation last year. He is entering the final year of his contract and will become an unrestricted free agent if he cannot get an extension with the Cowboys. I think contract status is something to take into consideration for Prescott this season – if he continues to put up big numbers, he could earn a similar payday to what Cousins received from the Falcons.
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
While Love has yet to sign an extension, I expect the Packers to give him one in the coming weeks — Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst himself has said they hope to get the deal done at the start of training camp. So I would avoid attributing Love’s contract to her fantasy status unless things change drastically by the end of the summer.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
Tua’s contract situation is fascinating. Several of his fellow draft picks, like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts, recently received massive extensions that made them one of the highest-paid players in the league. Tua probably wants a similar deal from the Dolphins in his fifth year, but he’s clearly a step below the other three in terms of talent. If Tua and the Dolphins can’t come to an agreement by the start of the season, which I consider very possible, I’d like Tua a little more in fantasy. He could easily follow in Lamar Jackson’s footsteps as a player who showed himself during his fifth-year option to earn a big extension.
Aaron Jones and James Conner
Both Jones and Conner are older running backs with similar profiles to guys like Henry and Ekeler last season. I would avoid using contract year status as a reason to take them as they look like classic dead zone running backs.
Najee Harris
The Pittsburgh Steelers declined to pick up Harris’ fifth-year option, meaning he will be a free agent after this season. It’s difficult to gauge how Harris will be used in the Steelers’ offense this season, as fellow running back Jaylen Warren split time almost equally with Harris last year. On paper, Harris’ situation is similar to Josh Jacobs’s a few years ago — Jacobs led the league in rushing and was a first-team All-Pro after the Raiders declined his fifth-year option in 2022. However, given the what we know about Harris as a player, I wouldn’t complicate anything with his contract situation and just treat him as an inferior RB2.
CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk
Lamb and Aiyuk are in very similar situations — both are first-round picks in the 2020 draft, awaiting an extension after having their fifth-year option picked up. Both Lamb and Aiyuk skipped mandatory minicamp in early June, indicating they are hoping to get the extension they want. Truth be told, I think this is mostly off-season drama and that both players will be paid before the season starts – it seems like Lamb and Aiyuk are committed to holding out until they get their contracts, so I doubt there will be a scenario where either Theirs enters the season playing on his fifth-year option.
Tee Higgins
Higgins is in a slightly different position to Lamb and Aiyuk. Because he was chosen in the second round of the 2020 draft and not the first, he does not have a fifth-year option and will instead play this season for the franchise. I believe the stars are aligning for Higgins to have a breakout contract year. He fits the profile of a successful receiver in his contract year as the No. 2 option on the Bengals offense, and he’ll still have Burrow throwing him the ball. The Bengals also have the fourth largest unoccupied target entering this season after getting rid of Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon, so Higgins could get a bigger piece of the pie now that he is fully healthy. Put it all together and I wouldn’t be surprised if Higgins has a monster season to earn a big payday next spring. I’m drafting Higgins every chance I get in fantasy this year.
Keenan Allen and Stefon Diggs
Allen and Diggs are in similar boats to veteran stars who were traded to young, exciting offenses this offseason. However, it is difficult to attribute any potential production to the contractual situation. Allen and Diggs will be joining new offenses in Chicago and Houston, respectively, so the situation and surrounding volume will have a much greater effect on their fantasy performance. That’s not to say they won’t be great in fantasy – I would just advise against using contract year status as the main justification for drafting them.
Chris Godwin and DeAndre Hopkins
Godwin’s contract will be void after this season and he will become a free agent if he can’t get an extension with the Bucs in the coming months. As a cornerstone of the franchise for the past half-decade, I wouldn’t be surprised if Godwin agreed to a team-friendly extension before the start of training camp. However, if that’s not the case, he’s a solid target for his contract year. Like Higgins, he checks all the boxes for a productive contract year and showed he still has energy left after surpassing 1,000 receiving yards last season. He is a great WR3 candidate in the middle rounds.
Hopkins is in a similar situation to Godwin, coming off a 1,000-yard season in his first year with the Titans after signing a two-year contract last July. I don’t expect Hopkins to be extended before the season because of his age (he’s 32), but I can easily see him having a peak year and proving he still has gas in the tank. He is also a very solid WR3/FLEX option this season.
Amari Cooper
Cooper is entering the final year of a five-year, $100 million contract he signed with the Cowboys in 2020. He is coming off a career season in which he racked up 1,250 receiving yards and was absent from mandatory minicamp. Considering Cooper is already 30 years old, it’s unlikely he’ll receive a multi-year extension, so I support the contract year narrative here. He has shown time and time again that he can produce regardless of who is throwing him the ball, and I hope he has another breakout season as the Browns’ No. 1 receiver and earns one final payday next year.
The end result
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Players entering the final year of their contracts have mixed results in fantasy football. Generally, contract year status should be used as a tiebreaker when deciding between two players, rather than the end-all deciding factor.
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Analysis of 2023 data helped clarify the factors that influence a successful contract season.
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This year, there are some potential stars for the contract year, including Dak Prescott, Tee Higgins and Amari Cooper.
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