ESPN analysis with little improvement in the Big Bears and playoff chances. Inside the numbers

ESPN analysis with little improvement in the Big Bears and playoff chances. Inside the numbers originally appeared in NBC Sports Chicago

On paper, the Bears is one of the most improved teams in the NFL this year. ESPN’s analysis, however, does not see these improvements leading to a significantly greater number of wins in 2024.

In NFL live, ESPN shared that their analytics believe the Bears will win 8.5 games next year – that’s just a win or two better than last year’s 7-10 record. Furthermore, their analysis gives the Bears just a 42% chance of making the playoffs.

However, former NFL security and front office executive Louis Riddick believes the Bears will surpass analytical projections.

“This is a team that can make dramatic improvements,” Riddick said on NFL Live. “Is this a team that rises up and surprises people? Yes, it could, because person for person, when you look at it on a piece of paper or on a computer screen, they have weapons that can match anyone, specifically offensively, and they have an offensive line that is very underrated. “

The key to the Bears surpassing ESPN analytics’ projection of Riddick’s estimate is the relationship between rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy.

“Can Shane allow Caleb to control things on the football field to the extent that Caleb is able to consistently make good decisions, not turn the ball over, not put the ball in danger and not turn every play into an improvised play, in the which one he knows is spectacular and knows he can’t get away with in the NFL?

One of the main reasons ESPN’s analytics are low on the Bears’ playoff chances is that the NFC North has seemingly become one of the most competitive in the NFL. The Lions were just a few plays away from making the playoffs last year; the Packers won a playoff game with Jordan Love taking over as the team’s starting quarterback; The Vikings have one of the best receiving duos in the league in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and one of the most creative defensive coordinators in Brian Flores.

Riddick believes the Bears face all three, but of course it’s still June.

“We know that games are not played on paper. I think that’s what makes North the division to watch this year. Young defenders, lots of offensive firepower, young perimeter players everywhere. It’ll be fun.”

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