We’re working on the Shuffle Up series for the new Fantasy Football draft season. The dollar values you will see below are not scientific in nature, but reflect how I view talent pools at the quarterback position. Use these layers however you want.
We opened the series last week with the tight end levels. Running backs and wide receivers will soon follow.
Do you have any disagreements? Well, that’s why we have a game. I welcome your reasoned disagreement on X/Twitter: @scott_pianowski.
Quarterback Overview
In the NFL, quarterback is the position of glamor and stress. It all comes down to finding a quarterback, keeping him, developing him. And if you don’t have one, you won’t be able to sleep at night.
The feeling is much different in standard fantasy leagues, where quarterback is the least stressful of the four outfield positions. The NFL has good quarterback depth right now, and that means you can do well in the draft at any starting point. This also means that I will probably be patient with the position, avoiding the first tier and perhaps even the top of the second, hoping to find someone in the second half of the Top 10 who can crack the Top 5. I’m also looking to add a more positive pick. late, someone who doesn’t qualify as an automatic start today but could be there a few weeks into the season.
Don’t worry if you miss the quarterback’s first shuttle. There’s another one coming in five minutes.
Level 1: The Big Tickets
Allen is at the top of the list because someone has to be there, but I doubt they recruit him much, if at all. The Bills’ offense hasn’t been as happy after Joe Brady took over the offense in the second half of 2023, and Buffalo’s receiver room is full of question marks. I also won’t pay the shipping for the 15 rushing touchdowns Allen racked up last season; it’s the only time he’s reached double digits in that critical category.
Allen’s rushing yards took a modest dip last year, and I suspect Allen’s rushing stats could start to slowly decline as Buffalo looks for ways to keep their franchise player healthy long-term. Some of Allen’s career compositions include Cam Newton, Daunte Culpepper and Andrew Luck, aggressive defenders who took a lot of physical punishment. The Bills don’t want Allen’s career trajectory to resemble that group.
For the first few months in Philadelphia last fall, the theme song was “It hurts so good.” This changed to “Everyone suffers“in the final third of the season, when the team’s quarterback was obviously playing with physical issues and difficulties. The season, fortunately, ended quickly in the playoffs, a defeat at the hands of an ordinary Tampa Bay team.
Hurts’ fantasy production was driven by the Tush Push, all those short-yardage touchdowns. Will the Eagles continue to feature this prominently in 2024? Center Jason Kelce retired and the backfield was strengthened with the acquisition of Saquon Barkley. Hurts was nothing special as a passer last year, with a league average QB rating.
Jackson’s career has been a whirlwind to this point, six seasons later. He has as many MVP awards (two) as he has playoff wins (two, compared to four losses). Jackson likely won’t fully shake his most determined critics until he makes at least one Super Bowl trip to Baltimore.
Jackson’s fantasy production comes in an unusual package. His season-high in pass attempts came last season, a modest 457. And while he’s among the game’s most electrifying runners, the Ravens don’t direct many short-yardage touchdowns to Jackson — he’s had just 5, 3 and 2 in the last three. years. Gus Edwards was the designated scorer at the end of last season, and now the Ravens have a better version of Edwards – future Hall of Famer Derrick Henry. Jackson’s highlights leave you breathless, but he could easily be a fantasy disappointment relative to his cost in the 2024 draft.
Mahomes is strangely the most boring of the four best quarterbacks from a fantasy perspective. He doesn’t offer the energy of the other three, although Mahomes isn’t zero in that category either. And Mahomes is finishing at QB8, his worst performance since he became the starter in 2018.
But maybe Mahomes can return to the top of the list in 2024. He’s still working with Andy Reid, perhaps the best play designer in the league. Travis Kelce is in the final laps of a great career, but he showed off his dominant shot in the playoffs. Rashee Rice is a question mark with outstanding issues off the field, but he was a productive player last season. And Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy add dynamic speed to the exterior. If Mahomes slips up a bit in my drafts, I could easily make audible progress in progress.
Tier 2: Legitimate Building Blocks
Some will look at Love critically because his touchdown rate was so high last year – these things often regress to the mean in subsequent seasons. But given that Love is still a relatively new starter and is tied to head coach Matt LaFleur and a talented Green Bay receiver room, I see him as a target player. LaFleur’s offensive resume should be respected.
The problem with drafting Richardson is that you have to get half the room out of the way — that’s what happens when an excitable young player starts dunking basketballs on social media. To be fair, I see reasons for Richardson’s exaggeration; he is a fabulous runner and is being coached and engineered by highly regarded offensive designer Shane Steichen. But I tend to be allergic to hustle and bustle during recruiting season, so I’m more likely to take what the room gives me rather than plant exuberant flags at the top of the recruiting trail.
It’s just a matter of health for Burrow because he is capable of winning an MVP in a fully healthy season. He is also linked to an alpha receiver in Ja’Marrr Chase, someone who is capable of a 20-touchdown season. The Bengals also have common talent in the backfield, which means the touchdown share could skew towards the passing game. Here’s hoping the injury gods give Burrow a chance for once.
Level 3: Talk to them, talk to them
Cousins is in no rush to talk, but his pocket style generally keeps him healthy (2023 the obvious exception) and Atlanta’s offense has three dynamic skill players that Cousins can play with. A Paper-thin Atlanta schedule is also part of the pro case, and the Falcons will also play most of their games indoors.
The Lions offense has kept the band together – which includes keeping OC Ben Johnson – so Goff is more than capable of being a reliable QB2 for fantasy. But we’d like to see better road game production from Goff; last season he had 19 touchdown passes and a juicy 107.9 rating at home, but fell to 11 touchdown passes and an 89.4 rating on the road.
Daniels Heisman’s season included 1,134 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, and Washington’s cupboard is not empty at the receiver position, where Terry McLaurin runs a decent ship. Kliff Kingsbury may be one of those coaches who is frustrating as a head coach but is successful as a coordinator.
