Best, Worst, and Most Likely Scenarios for Drake Maye’s Rookie Season originally appeared in NBC Sports Boston
Early July. It’s time for hot dogs, burnt lawns, fireworks, vacations and fantastic football content. The kind you reject if you’re wrong. The kind you brag about if you’re right.
“I called! I didn’t call? I called in July!
MANY ARE SAYING that the Patriots will be the worst team in the NFL this season.
It is difficult to make this statement a warm Lee Corso. Facts are facts. They were 4-13 last year, failed to score, had a “meh” free agency session, are dogged by lingering questions on the offensive line, had a potentially very good draft that is tied to a quarterback in need of significant adjustments, and having a first-year head coach piloting what could be a shocking cultural change for the team.
The team faces many questions and, as Jerod Mayo’s predecessor said nearly 2,000 times in his 24 seasons at the helm, “I don’t have a crystal ball.”
The most likely outcome for 2024 can be stated in four simple words. “Improve. Still not good.”
BUT! It could be better than that. And it could be worse. With this in mind, we will do a little exercise over the next week analyzing key positions and projecting the “best case scenario”, the “worst case scenario” and the “most likely scenario” in 2024 for each of them.
We start with the player whose improvement – or lack thereof – will determine the team’s fortunes for the rest of the decade: Drake Maye.
Best possible scenario
Maye’s improvement from the start of rookie minicamp in May to his final minicamp workout a month later was remarkable. The Patriots went all-in on fine-tuning their footwork, timing and accuracy and Maye went from somewhat robotic to fluid.
He threw a series of “wow” pitches in early June, showcasing his precision movement and arm strength. He’s also shown that he’s very, very, VERY interested in this in a way that’s both goofy and huggably enthusiastic. He’s happy to be here, happy for the opportunity and when he says “I’m a sponge” – what everyone says – you believe him.
The best case is that Maye takes the momentum from mini-camp and carries it into training camp. It shows the daily improvement Mac Jones has made in 2021 and shows resilience and recovery when inevitably ugly plays and days occur.
By the end of camp, he will have been the best defender on the field some days and the difference between him and presumed starter Jacoby Brissett will be based solely on leadership on the field. The little things like getting in and out of the huddle, recognizing defenses, changing plays, etc. – Maye can’t make up for this stumble in an eight-year veteran in 20 practices.
So Maye will start the season on the bench, but after impressing in the mop-up against the Niners and Dolphins, he’ll be on the field on Columbus Day.
He will have 10 matches and win almost half of them. He’ll finish with a 1.5 to 1 TD/INT ratio (goes 16 and 12), get a thrilling comeback win against Caleb Williams and the Bears on November 10, and have a few games where he goes for 50+ yards on the floor too. Despite taking a good beating behind a still suspect offensive line, Maye shows the same kind of physical toughness he displayed at North Carolina and doesn’t miss a start.
He first develops trust in Hunter Henry and Rhamondre Stevenson, then begins to find a spark with DeMario Douglas and Ja’Lynn Polk. Among rookie quarterbacks taken in the first round, he was surpassed only by Williams. At the end of the season, even with the team out of contention, no one wants the season to end because the arrow is pointing up.
Worst scenario
Reminder: This is what it will be like if the worst-case scenario happens. It is not a prediction. OK. Here we go.
Drake Maye has a July/August where he is: Jumpy. Inaccurate. Stunned. Unable to master mechanics in the huddle or at the line of scrimmage. Sad. He displays shaky confidence. Runs when he should throw. Throws when he should run. He has the pocket conscience of a birdbath. He is overshadowed by Joe Milton and is not in the same galaxy as Jacoby Brissett.
He is ineffective in both joint practices and preseason games.
When the season begins, he is given some one-off tasks in cleaning situations and his mechanics make him look like a giant, smiling used-car windsock. Feet going one way, shoulders another, ball going to the wrong team.
He deals poorly with the criticism and lamentations about him being a failed draft pick, dismissing the blame and becoming depressed.
But even when things are going really bad, there are enough throws and plays and stretches to make you say, “If he could JUST…” but then it all vaporizes. The comp becomes Zach Wilson in terms of hide-and-seek competence. At the end of the season, Maye has yet to start and – due to spotty protection and a lack of offensive firepower – it appears the team is no closer to attacking than it will be in January 2024.
Which means that after five seasons of post-Brady rebuilding, the team still isn’t improving and Maye may not be the answer.
Probably scenario
From the start of training camp through the start of 2025, the Patriots have never wavered on the message that they got the guy they wanted, progress is what they expected, and they can’t wait for tomorrow because Maye gets better looking every day.
And it’s not gaslighting. Maye pretty much picks up where he left off when minicamp ends and the semi-crowd that shows up to watch training camp leaves impressed and believing it’s only a matter of time before Maye is a starter.
But the day-to-day fine print demonstrates why he isn’t. Maye stays level when the pads are on and there’s a lot of work in the red zone, but when he can operate away from the end zone and run two minutes, he rips it up. He alternates between brilliant and stupid, but doesn’t beat himself up when he’s ugly. The extended work he receives in pre-season games is invaluable and by the end of August he is in fine form.
Maye’s fourth-quarter cameos in losses at San Francisco and Miami are ugly at first but competent at the end. This becomes a springboard for increasing some repetitions in training until October. With the team fighting and everyone understanding that the future is not now, the noise to let Maye play becomes very loud.
Finally, Maye debuts against the Colts in Week 13. The team’s playoff hopes are extinguished, so much of the season focuses on 2025. He plays well. Then he plays horribly. But the end of the season is reminiscent of 1993, when the light came on for rookie Drew Bledsoe and the Patriots finished with success.
Among fans and media, there is a bit of buyer’s remorse because it was a very uneven overall performance and Offensive Rookie of the Year JJ McCarthy was sitting there for the team in third place.
They got the guy, they say. Wait until next year.
