On Roob’s notes: What do the Eagles need to do in 2024 to save Nick Sirianni’s job? originally appeared in NBC Sports Philadelphia
A glimpse into Nick Sirianni’s future, a crazy streak from Reggie White, and a look back at Jalen Carter’s rookie year.
Roob’s 10 random eagle observations never stop.
1A. What does Nick Sirianni need to do to keep his job beyond 2024? I think it’s pretty clear that if the Eagles don’t win a playoff game this year, he’s gone. And he should be. Because if the Eagles lose in the wild card round or don’t make the playoffs, then you’re looking at a team that reached the Super Bowl in 2022, finished 2023 with a 1-6 record and a playoff loss, and then failed to advance. in the postseason again in 2024. That’s a trajectory Sirianni couldn’t survive. If the Eagles don’t win a playoff game this year, it means they lost in the wild card round for the third time in four years (or won first place and lost a home game to a wild card team in the conference semifinals, which would be even worse). Just making the playoffs is no longer enough. Any equity Sirianni gained in 2022 is running out. He has to prove that this team has overcome the 2023 meltdown and that he still has what it takes to guide a team into the postseason. The Eagles now have real coordinators. They have unlimited talent on offense and are younger and faster on defense. They have a manageable schedule. Everything is ready for Sirianni to take this team until mid-January. Otherwise, Jeff Lurie won’t have much of a decision to make.
1B. The last Eagles coach who held his job through a fifth season without multiple postseason-winning seasons was Buddy Ryan in 1990. But things were different back then. It was before free agency, so coaches generally had more time to develop young players. And the 1989 Eagles team finished strong, winning five of the last six regular season games before an ugly home loss to Jim Everett and the Rams. Plus, that team was incredibly loyal to Ryan, and even Norman Braman understood that. Despite much animosity between Braman and Ryan, Braman said in the locker room immediately after the Rams loss that Ryan would return in 1990, in the final year of his contract: “Buddy will be the coach of the Eagles next year, no doubt, and or but. But the extension Buddy wanted never happened, and after the 1990 season and another home loss, Buddy was gone.
two. Let’s examine the career of Michael Haddix, the eighth player chosen in the 1983 draft. He is one of only two players in NFL history with at least 500 carries and three or fewer touchdowns (the other is 1950s quarterback Joe Childress). . He is one of two running backs in NFL history with at least 500 carries and a 3.0 yard average. per carry or worse (the other is Bob Monnett, who played for the Packers in the 1930s). From 1985 to 1990, Haddix had 388 carries without a touchdown. That is the most rushing runs in NFL history in any six-year period without a touchdown (the next is Drew Bledsoe’s 183 from 1994-2000, and the next by a running back is Gene Washington’s 166 from 2016 to 2023). The Eagles drafted Haddix over Dan Marino, Darrell Green, Bruce Matthews, Richard Dent, John Elway and Richard Dent.
3A. Jake Elliott is 7 of 11 on field goal attempts from 55 yards and out. Every other Eagles kicker in history has combined to be 3-of-31 from 55 yards and out.
3B. In NFL history, only two kickers are more accurate than Elliott from 55 yards and out (with a minimum of 10 attempts). Harrison Butker is 10 of 12 for 83.3 percent, Jason Myers is 15 of 20 for 75 percent and Elliott is 7 of 11 for 63.6 percent.
4A. I don’t want to sound too negative when it comes to Parris Campbell and the Eagles’ third wide receiver competition. There’s certainly a chance Campbell reinvents himself as a productive NFL wide receiver after five disappointing seasons. But the numbers are not encouraging. Consider this: There are 141 active wide receivers who have been targeted at least 100 times in their careers. Of those 141, Campbell ranks 134thth in yards per target at 6.4. Among the assets 1st– or 2It isround picks, only Zay Jones is worse at 6.1. The NFL has been tracking targets since 1992, and in those 32 years, Campbell ranks 472nd.It is out of 523 receivers in yards per target, according to Stathead. The production simply never existed. Now, with Jalen Hurts as his QB and Kellen Moore as his OC and without the expectations of being The Guy and with DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown drafting the other team’s top corners, perhaps Campbell will turn into an excellent No. 3. It’s possible. But the analytics aren’t pretty.
4B. Comparing Campbell to several Eagles throughout history, his 6.4 yards per target is lower than that of JJ Arcega-Whiteside (8.3), Jeff Maehl (8.1), Mack Hollins (8.0), Riley Cooper ( 7.6), Reggie Brown (7.6), Todd Pinkston (7.4), Freddie Mitchell (7.4), Victor Bailey (7.4), Miles Austin (7.2), Greg Lewis (7. 0) and James Thrash (6.6) and tied with Jalen Reagor.
5A. The Eagles are 26-2 since October 2013, when they had a 100-yard rusher. Both losses were to the Ravens – in late 2016, Ryan Mathews ran for 128 yards in a 27-26 loss to the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium and in Week 6 of 2020, Miles Sanders ran for 118 yards in a 30-yard loss. 28 at Linc. The last time they lost to a team other than the Ravens with a 100-yard rusher was Week 3 of 2013, when LeSean McCoy rushed for 158 yards in a 26-16 loss to the Chiefs at the Linc. The last time they lost to an NFC opponent with a 100-yard rusher was Week 13 of 2012, when Bryce Brown rushed for 169 yards in a 38-33 loss to the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. They have won 11 consecutive games with a 100-yard rusher dating back to the Ravens game in 2020. They are 9-0 under Nick Sirianni with a 100-yard rusher.
5B. Since November 2012, the Eagles are 0-2 when Bryce Brown rushes for 100 yards and 27-3 when someone else does.
6A. Who has had the most rushing yards on the Eagles in the last 50 years without ever playing for another team? Believe it or not, that’s Jalen Hurts, with 2,503 career rushing yards. Most for a running back who has only played for the Eagles in the last half century? That would be Anthony Toney, with 2,294 yards. Only Heath Sherman (2,130), Boston Scott (1,295) and Kenny Gainwell (895) are also above 500. The only early Eagles defensive backs with at least 1,000 rushing yards – all for the Eagles – are Steve Van Buren (5,860 ). ), Frank Ziegler (1,926), Jim Parmer (1,636), Ernie Steele (1,337) and Po James (1,215).
6B. Much less surprising is that Hurts has the most passing yards by an Eagle without ever playing for another team. Good luck guessing who is second. That’s Davey O’Brien, who threw for 2,614 yards as an Eagle in 1939 and 1940. Koy Detmer is next with 1,944, and no one else has more than 1,000 yards (Detmer spent five days with the Vikings in 1997, but never got into a game ) .
6C. Receiving is a whole different animal. Five of the nine leading receivers in Eagles history have never played for another team: Pete Retzlaff is second (7,412 yards), Mike Quick fourth (6,464), Pete Pihos sixth (5,619), Bobby Walston eighth (5,363) and Brent Celek the ninth (4,998). Each played their entire careers with the Eagles. All of Ben Hawkins’ 4,764 yards were with the Eagles, but he played two games for the Browns in 1974. So he doesn’t count.
7. Nick Foles’ career postseason passer rating of 98.8 is the 10th highest in NFL history among quarterbacks who have thrown at least 100 passes. Have you ever wondered what your passer rating would be like if it weren’t for your two interceptions at the hands of Alshon Jeffery? The one from the Super Bowl – chosen by Duron Harmon – would have completed 41 yards. The Eagles had a 1st and 10 at the Patriots’ 43 and Jeffery batted the pass out of the air for Harmon to hit down the right sideline at the 2-yard line. New Orleans’s in 2018 would have been a gain of just five yards. The Eagles had a 2nd and 10 at the Saints’ 27, Jeffery let the pass go through his hands at the 22 and Lattimore connected at the 19. Turn those two INTs into completions for a total of 46 yards and Foles’ passer rating jumps 98 .8 to 104.4, and he surpasses Josh Allen (100.0), Aaron Rodgers (100.1), Baker Mayfield (100.4), Matt Ryan (100.8), Matt Stafford (101.7) and Kurt Warner (102.8) and moves into fourth place all time, behind only Jeff Hostetler (112.0), Patrick Mahomes (105.8) and Bart Starr (104.8).
8A. Jalen Hurts has thrown 17 touchdown passes to AJ Brown and 17 to DeVonta Smith. If they each catch eight TDs this year, Hurts will join Ron Jaworski as the only Eagles QB with 25 touchdown passes to two different receivers. Jaws threw 47 to Harold Carmichael and 33 to Mike Quick.
8B. Top 10 QB-WR combinations in NFL history: Peyton Manning to Marvin Harrison (112 touchdowns), Tom Brady to Rob Gronkowski (90), Philip Rivers to Antonio Gates (89), Steve Young to Jerry Rice (85), Dan Marino to Mark Clayton (79), Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown (74), Drew Brees to Marques Colston (72), Aaron Rodgers to Devante Adams (68), Manning to Reggie Wayne (67), and Rodgers to Jordy Nelson and Jim Kelly for Andre Reed (65 each).
9. During his eight years with the Eagles, Reggie White only played three consecutive games without a sack once – from Week 3 to Week 5 in 1986 against the Broncos, Rams and Falcons. In the last six seasons with the Eagles, he never went more than two games without being sacked.
10. I feel like sometimes Jalen Carter gets unfairly criticized because of Jordan Davis’ inconsistency. Type of guilt by association. And it’s complicated because they both declined last year, as did almost everyone else on the roster. It seems that because Carter and Davis were college roommates, they both had 1stround picks, are best friends and play similar positions, but are automatically linked. But even with a late-season decline, Carter had a fantastic rookie year. Pro Football Focus gave him an 87.4.6 gradeth-most among 116 interior linemen who played at least 300 defensive snaps. (Davis ranked a very good 29thth on this list despite his own late-season decline). Most of Carter’s big-play production came early in the season — he had 3½ of his 6.0 sacks, four of his eight tackles for loss and both of his forced fumbles through the first five weeks of the season — but he was still playing at a high level. the rest of the season even though the opening plays weren’t there. He and Davis disappeared, but Carter started at a much higher point. Looking at the big picture, this was a rookie offensive lineman who had 6.0 sacks, eight tackles for loss and two forced fumbles, and the last Eagles defensive tackle to do that in a season was Darwin Walker, 20 years earlier in 2003 .It’s scary think how good this kid can be. Totally professional, good. He is big, fast, powerful, dominating. In Year 2, with better conditioning, a growing understanding of the NFL game and an upgraded defensive coordinator in Vic Fangio, I expect big things from Carter.
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