Best, Worst, and Most Likely Scenarios for Patriots WRs in 2024 originally appeared in NBC Sports Boston
It’s time for more spitting!!!
We started our Best Case/Worst Case/Most Likely Case series last week with a projection of what could be in store for Drake Maye.
We’re back today with a look at the wide receivers, an often lamented team that has some guys tailor-made for the Larry David or Alonzo Mourning Face GIFs.
Here’s his large room: Kendrick Bourne, JuJu Smith-Schuster, KJ Osborn, DeMario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, Javon Baker, Kayshon Boutte, Tyquan Thornton, Jalen Reagor, Kawaan Baker, David Wallis.
Here we go …
Best possible scenario
Want a silver lining to the Patriots demolishing their last quarterback and targeting wide receiver so often in recent years? The new guys at QB and WR – Drake Maye, Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker – can link arms and march together into the wilderness, starting as rookies.
So the best case overall is Polk being the underrated gem, so many believe him to be. Tough as hell, smart as a whip, a coach and a guy who can play beyond the age of 22 in terms of maturity and reliability. He’s a Day 1 starter for Jacoby Brissett, but the Maye-Polk combination has appeared multiple times in camp and the preseason.
Before we get to the other rookie, Baker, let’s move on to sophomore DeMario Douglas. Because he showed last year in a terrible offense that it could be the nightmare the Patriots haven’t had since 2018, Julian Edelman was still agile.
Ignored in the misery was that Douglas averaged 6.9 yards after catch (YAC), which ranked third in the NFL among wideouts with 40-plus receptions. He was behind only Deebo Samuel (8.8) and Rashee Rice (8.3). He was the most productive when emerging from mothballs after a disaster in week 2. Maybe he’s not Tyreek Hill, but he becomes the center of the passing attack and catches about 120 targets and goes over 1,000 yards.
His presence inside and underneath allows Baker to grow into his role as the YPC beast he was at Central Florida last year and – with Maye having the ability to play off script and buy time, Baker becomes a big threat.
Meanwhile, oft-forgotten free agency addition KJ Osborn will ideally become the veteran presence in the group, even if it’s only his fourth season. Playing third fiddle in the Vikings offense, he has put up numbers the last three seasons and his former quarterback Kirk Cousins offered in the offseason that a bigger role would suit Osborn perfectly.
Ideally, these are the top four because they can all grow along with Maye and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt over time.
Where do Kendrick Bourne and JuJu Smith-Schuster stand? Bourne — who was having a very good 2023 before his season-ending injury in Week 8 — said earlier this season that he expects to be full steam ahead in training camp and ready for Week 1. If he is, perfect. He’s a high-energy player and versatile as hell. That means Baker can learn a little as he goes along in what his role will be.
With this being the “best case,” Smith-Schuster’s minicamp proclamation that he is in incredible shape and ready to erase last year’s 11-game, 29-catch season with a highly productive 2024 comes together.
The hierarchy is clear – Douglas, Polk, Osborn, Bourne – but when the ball gets to JuJu on third down or in the red zone he is similar to the 2020 model: Surehanded. Reliable. Solid blocker. Good leader.
As for the other three guys – Tyquan Thornton, Jalen Reagor and Kayshon Boutte? I saw with my own eyes everyone making plays. Boutte had a very good camp in 2023. At best, one of them emerges as a kickoff return specialist. But there is a lot of space in the room.
Worst scenario
Wideout is one of the most dependent positions in the game. To produce, the line has to remain tight and the quarterback has to be competent and accurate before the wideout can even begin to show his relevance. Never mind the running game, the offensive coordinator and other pass catchers doing their thing. The worst case is that Jacoby Brissett doesn’t have time to process anything. Like Mac Jones early last year – under constant siege.
The team, believing that Smith-Schuster and Bourne’s experience outweighs their development earlier in the year, becomes overly dependent on these two and Osborn. And Douglas – as I said, the only asset they have – is sidelined by an offense that shows no ingenuity in unlocking him.
The lack of repetitions and modest production irritate children. Baker, who has sold himself as a huge attraction to fans, keeps asking, “Where’s mine?!?!?!” Polk enters and leaves. But the offense is so stagnant and unable to move the ball (think: “1, 2, 3, PUNT!) that there are literally not enough plays in the game for anyone to get enough work done.
In short, it looks a lot like last year’s offense when the top two wideouts (Douglas and Bourne) combined for 86-967-4, which is what the Raiders basically got from Jakobi Meyers (71-807-8).
Probably
It will be much closer to the best case than the worst case. Being bad is one thing. Be bad and boring? Worst scenario. And that, aside from the melodrama of the last two years, is what the team has been.
With a directive from the top to make the attack worth watching, GM Eliot Wolf is true to his word when he said “I think there will be more dependence on playing young players.”
Polk and Douglas have every chance to prove they can be a duo that can produce, produce, produce for years to come. Even if they don’t, relentless optimism about their approach, diligence and potential dominates the start of the season.
Bourne is still on the backfoot at the start of the year, but Smith-Schuster is true to his word and is much more reliable. The team also manages his reps and work and he has a solid 40+ catch season.
Osborn is the surprise. He has almost instant chemistry with Brissett and shows great reliability on third down.
The Patriots move on from Tyquan to open the door for Baker. He doesn’t do much early, but he comes in after Halloween and has 26 catches for 442 yards (17 YPC) and five touchdowns.
Is anyone scared of the Patriots offense? Not exactly. But they take note of what it would look like if the arc of improvement continued.
