Fantasy Football Take-Shopping: Are the fans right about the Saints offense or should we be curious?

Over the past few months, I’ve realized I have a bizarre fascination. It’s something that, no matter how many podcast co-hosts I’ve verbally sparred with, no one seems to share. Instantly this makes me feel like I’m wrong and should let it go, but we’re still in the shopping phase of the fantasy football offseason, so here we are.

See, I just can’t shake my peculiar fixation on one of the most tedious and sometimes frustrating outfits of the past year: the New Orleans Saints offense.

If you asked a wide range of football fans, I bet few would guess that New Orleans ranked ninth in points scored last season and had a top-15 offense in EPA per play. Despite these impressive statistics, the Saints offense has not to feel as a successful unit when you watched them play last year. The fact that the Saints almost completely changed their offensive coaching staff helps highlight that, despite these two results, everyone left 2023 with the feeling that there was still meat on the bone.

It is this change at the coaching level that caught my attention.

The departure of longtime offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael is a significant development. Carmichael, part of Sean Payton’s original Saints coaching staff, was brought to New Orleans 18 years ago. Head coach Dennis Allen and now-former offensive line coach Doug Marrone were also part of that staff. Carmichael was the only one who never pulled off the coup, holding several positions, including the title of offensive coordinator for 15 years.

The Santos of 2023 showed that there is a fine line between stability and stagnation. For the first time in nearly two decades, New Orleans will have some new offensive ideas.

The group hired to replace the old guard aligns with the goal of good offensive football in the modern era. Klint Kubiak, son of longtime Shanahan acolyte Gary Kubiak, has experience as an offensive coordinator in the league and will reprise that role in New Orleans after spending 2023 as the 49ers’ passing game coordinator. Veteran offensive line coach John Benton was with the 49ers from 2017-2020 before following some of his promoted coaches to the Jets to serve as run game coordinator. Another older Shanahan acolyte, Rick Dennison, was hired as a senior offensive assistant. Some creative hires like Keith Williams as wide receivers coach and Saints legend Jahri Evans as offensive assistant round out this exciting team.

The 2023 Saints launched an offense that still seemed made for supercomputer Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees, who ran the unit to perfection for 15 years. It’s a system that doesn’t make the quarterback’s life easier, while the Shanahan tree has perfected this endeavor.

The change in systems can significantly impact a unit that has talent but came away from last season feeling like they were underperforming. One area of ​​this offense has players who feel specifically ripe for elevation.

The passing game

The air raid presents my most significant fascination with this attack. Many of the “easy quarterback buttons” made famous by the Shanahan tree simply weren’t pressed by the 2023 Saints.

Derek Carr ranked last among quarterbacks who suffered 20% of his team’s drops in play action rate, at just 14.8%, according to Pro Football Focus. Pre-snap and at-the-snap movement have become almost cheat code wrinkles for increasing pass production. According to Fantasy Points Data, New Orleans also ranked last in pre-snap movement and snap play last season.

Meanwhile, several players from the Shanahan and/or Sean McVay tree lead the league in these categories and actively make life for their quarterback.

We all know who Derek Carr is; he is not and never has been one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL. He makes no difference behind center and often became a punching bag during his first year with the Saints. However, is he so far from some of the notable names elevated by this system? I’m not convinced he is. We’ve seen Carr have solid to good seasons over the last five years, and it doesn’t seem impossible to me that he could build on a year like that in an offense that is destined to help him more than last year’s approach.

If Carr can be elevated to above-average production, the Saints’ underrated receiver talent here can be maximized even further.

Chris Olave has been a productive player during two seasons in the NFL. I have no doubt he can reach a significantly higher ceiling than his season averages of 79.5 receptions, 1,082.5 yards and 4.5 touchdowns. Olave is a top tier splitter who wins at every level of the route tree. He has primarily been used as a vertical receiver to this point in his career and few receivers have benefited less than Olave from layup routes and easy looks. These are the types of targets that this system brings in spades and we already have evidence that it is productive in movement plays.

Olave will demand a high Fantasy draft pick this year. He’s probably falling off the board as a top-12 receiver. Everything about this offensive change should contribute to getting more out of him as a player. He has the skills to do it and is one of my favorite candidates to emerge into the superstar tier of receivers late in the season.

Rashid Shaheed is the other fascinating receiver on this list. A big play waiting to happen, Shaheed’s game goes far beyond his undeniable speed.

Shaheed shows the ability to beat press coverage, which is key to his quest to become an all-around receiver. You get reps of him on film playing all three receiver positions. Shanahan’s offense and its offshoots require separation in the middle of the field, which is Shaheed’s specialty. He is also an excellent candidate for high-speed movements before or during the snap. These plays will take him into favorable coverage and open up space for Olave. A situation where everyone wins.

Olave and Shaheed should be miles ahead of the other receivers on the roster and with Juwan Johnson’s offseason injury, there is no needle movement at tight end. There’s a chance we’re not exactly understanding the significant leap Olave is about to make from a target share perspective. He was at 23.7% last season. I will well surpass that mark in 2024. If Shaheed moves towards the 17% mark, he will exceed expectations.

That said, there are some other intriguing, if not lesser pedigreed, options on the rest of the depth chart. Cedrick Wilson Jr. is probably the front-runner for the WR3 gig because of his experience and reps in a run-heavy offense with the Dolphins last season. The sleeper I have my eye on is AT Perry. The huge X receiver prospect was much later in last season’s draft than I expected, but he got some playing time as a rookie after Michael Thomas’ injury. Olave can overcome enough press coverage to win as X, but he doesn’t have the structure that Perry brings to the table. Plus, if we want someone to do all the fun movement concepts we want to see for Olave and Shaheed, someone is going to have to stay in line as a boundary receiver. In theory, this is Perry’s game.

The racing game

I have clear spaces to express my peculiar concerns about this offensive change in the wide receiver room. My conviction runs out when we talk about the ground game.

One thing I believe with some clarity is that some of the lofty targets typically given to running backs in the old offense will be distributed to traditional pass catchers. Alvin Kamara led all running backs with an 18.1% target share last season. Part of this is due to Carr’s scattered response to pressure leading to total checkdown addiction. It has also been at the core of this offense for years. Typically, covert offenses that don’t employ Christian McCaffrey direct targets elsewhere.

New Orleans ranked 22nd in success rate last season. Basically, it’s bringing back the same run space with, most likely, a worse offensive line for 2024. That doesn’t exactly sound like the makings of a strong run ecosystem.

It will be interesting to see what kind of run game philosophy this team brings to New Orleans. Traditionally, this tree has been heavy on wide zones, but we’ve seen leaders like Shanahan and McVay lean more toward gap schemes to transform offenses. Kamara was much more effective on gap runs at 4.23 yards per carry than on zone runs at 3.7 yards per carry, according to Fantasy Points Data. Sophomore sleeper Kendre Miller has certain traits that fit into both schemes. If he emerges as a real option on this committee, it could increase the level of interest in the running back corps.

The end result

Ultimately, if no one else finds this team even remotely attractive, I understand. Ultimately, this is still an operation led by Dennis Allen and Derek Carr. The Saints remain a “lost between worlds” operation that hasn’t fully overcome the past and only has a step or two toward the future. Some demons have not been exorcised and some long-standing debts are still in the process of being paid. The offensive line can be an anchor that drags the entire scoring unit to a point where it’s not even worth discussing.

However, the change in the offensive coaching staff represented a significant change, as did their clear sign of investing in young talent at wide receiver.

The general consensus is that this is a lifeless offense captained by a mid-major quarterback worth ignoring. Whenever the wisdom of the crowd fully accepts a narrative, it is at least worth exploring whether the opposing opinion carries any weight. I don’t know if I fully believe this case, but I can at least tell myself a positive story about the receiver talent and philosophical changes on offense.