Three scenarios for Jerod Mayo in first year as Patriots coach

Three scenarios for Jerod Mayo in first year as Patriots coach originally appeared in NBC Sports Boston

There were three first-time coaches last season: DeMeco Ryans (Texans), Shane Steichen (Colts) and Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals). Not surprisingly, their seasons have mostly gone according to the progress of their quarterbacks.

Ryans had a tremendous rookie season with No. 2 overall pick CJ Stroud, and Houston went 10-7 and made the playoffs.

Steichen got a good start from rookie Anthony Richardson (2-2 in four starts) before he was injured and gave way to a strong journeyman in Gardner Minshew as the Colts went 9-8.

Gannon’s franchise quarterback (Kyler Murray) was injured, so Josh Dobbs started the first eight, going 1-7. (In fact, he played relatively well.) Arizona — a dismal 4-13 team in 2022 — fought back to a breezy 4-13, kid who showed moxie.

So before we theorize about the best, worst, and most likely scenarios for Jerod Mayo in his first year as head coach, we have to understand one thing above all else: You can only play the hand you’re dealt.

It starts with the quarterback. The team had a good first-round quarterback who Bill Belichick was excited about less than two years ago. Now Mac Jones is long gone and newsboy Jacoby Brissett is back and keeping the seat warm for siring boy wonder Drake Maye.

When will Maye be ready? I don’t know. He has advantage and potential. But the offensive line was terrible last year and the receiver room has been a disaster since 2019. So it’s all a projection.

Mayonnaise included. Charismatic. Intelligent. Work hard. But – just like his quarterback – he still has a long way to go. He doesn’t know what he doesn’t know about being an NFL coach. He is pointed this out a few times this offseason.

And no one can really advise you on how to replace Belichick because no one in NFL history has replaced a six-time Super Bowl-winning coach who really didn’t want to leave.

The truth is, it’s not Belichick’s team anymore because they were terrible the last two years and have been mired in submediocrity since Tom Brady’s departure. So many personnel and technical team decisions. So much acidity. So much disguised intrigue. Ultimately, the improvement ultimatums were simply not met.

But the anguish and irritation that Belichick left the team fuming, 4-13 ruins (and they were lucky to get four wins), has already been replaced by transparent nostalgia.

For many, Bill was attacked. He is a likable figure.

Mayo won’t have its inevitable game plan, game management, personnel or podium mistakes compared to Bill Belichick’s worst. They will all be compared to Bill’s best.

Fair enough, as Belichick’s batting average over 24 seasons was pretty good. Unfair, as the team is 29-38 since Tom Brady’s departure. The hard truth is that Genius Bill no longer lived here. That won’t stop the yearning.

But it’s life. Belichick’s tenure was so excellent that people may choose to remember the legend and use his entire tenure as a measuring stick, not the recent past.

If Mayo and the Patriots are smart, there won’t be any complaints about this. Not a word, not a syllable, not a raised eyebrow from the organization hinting at anything about it being “Morning in New England” or a new dawn or blaming Bill for any adversity.

This dirty laundry was well aired by the team in the offseason. It looks like a serious dance.

Just as Maye will not be Tom, Mayo will not be Bill. So what will he be in the first year?

Bcase scenario

There is an interesting dynamic in Mayo’s best-case scenario. For everything to work out, Drake Maye needs to get on the field at some point and play with encouraging competence.

This would mean Maye would present irrefutable evidence during camp and the preseason that he should be the opening day starter over Jacoby Brissett. Personally, I don’t think that will happen. And I think the team is predisposed to say that all draws go to the veteran.

Once bitten, twice shy. They would rather make absolutely sure that Maye is more than ready to be a starter when he takes over.

This means Brissett will have to fumble or waste time, which the team really doesn’t want.

In addition to the quarterback, Mayo needs an Ernie Adams. A trustworthy sage with whom he can bounce things off. Someone who will treat each week like an archaeological dig trying to unearth some artifact that might be useful. A whisperer. An in-house consultant on challenges, game management, etc. Could it be Evan Rothstein, the highly regarded assistant quarterback coach? Ben McAdoo?

No one has ever been better on game day than Belichick. But he had capable and talented offensive coordinators to make sure things were controlled. Therefore, Alex Van Pelt has to be up to the challenge of coordination, game calling, personnel packages and situational football that will arise. As well as unlocking Maye.

Patriots Talk: Drake Maye is a ball of clay; Is Alex Van Pelt an artist? | Listen and subscribe | Watch on youtube

Defensively, Mayo have a top-10 group, which the team has invested further in this offseason with re-signs like Kyle Dugger and Jahlani Tavai. Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones are back in the secondary. If first-year defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington can maintain a similar level of play as last year, that would be ideal.

In this scenario, the symbiotic relationship between GM Eliot Wolf and Mayo is great. Brissett starts softly. Maye has a great camp. At some point, the baton is handed over and the situation is handled with grace and assurance and looks nothing like the 2020 Miami debacle with Tua Tagovailoa and Ryan Fitzpatrick alternating between each other.

We hear a lot about culture and players being freer to express themselves. At their best, players take responsibility and respond with maturity and the veterans the team has re-signed serve as lieutenants of Mayo’s vision.

Mistakes on the field are inevitable. Fourth down decisions, personnel decisions, player errors, etc. Explaining them with airtight logic or a simple “I was wrong…” would be ideal.

Worst scenario

It’s chaos. The post-Belichick sense of freedom results in skids everywhere. A slow camp for the offense is largely because the offensive line hasn’t been addressed enough.

Worse than being unproductive, the offense in particular appears unprepared. Too many mistakes, too much time at the line of scrimmage, too many people trying to learn a lot from people they’ve never worked with before.

Defensively, the team falls back. And there are complaints that “this wasn’t the way it was when Bill was here…”

Maye’s development is stunted and when he takes the field it is clear that he will need a LOT more work than expected.

Most likely scenario

The Patriots are not good. But they are brave. They become – over the course of the season – a team that no one wants to play because the defense is very good and the attack never beats itself.

Mayo grows at work. There are still times when he’s a little simplistic and offhand responses turn into “What did he mean by that?” conversations, but the podium thing gets easier.

Eventually, he begins to see why Bill was a safe and he himself begins to follow this trend.

Mayo as CEO is excellent. He lets his coaches train and the guys do their thing and he oversees everything. He faces some hurdles in game management, but towards the end of the season he made huge improvements.

But the main reason the Krafts hired him — to chart a different course for this decade’s second rebuild — gains momentum after Thanksgiving, and the team closes with success. No one likes going from 5 to 12 or 6 to 11, but overall, there’s a lot to be optimistic about for 2025.