2024 Fantasy Football Rankings: Layered Analysis of the Running Back Draft Landscape

We’re working on the Shuffle Up season for the new year of fantasy football and now we’re in the big position, the running backs. If you could get an answer before the season on just one position, this is the one you would ask for.

Unfortunately, there is no answer key available. It’s the position most likely to be hit by injuries, and it’s also the position most likely to be filled with serviceable players (even occasional stars) completely out of nowhere. We talked in the reception section about how a Puka Nacua story this year is highly unlikely. But Kyren Williams’ story could easily repeat itself somewhere. The paths back to relevance are not that complicated; If we can solve the volume, we’re already there.

Running Back Overview/Strategy

Most of my lineup compositions will focus on one key runner; you can call it Anchor RB or Hero RB; I’m not tied to labels. This player will probably be a first or second round pick for me, but that’s not an internal obligation. I’ll try to be flexible on draft day and could end up anchoring in Round 3 or Round 4 in the right situation.

After that, I will look to gradually acquire whatever depth is needed, understanding that with most NFL clubs currently operating something akin to a defensive platoon, the pool of useful fantasy defenders is deeper than ever.

Level 1: The Big Tickets

• $45 Christian McCaffrey

• $40 Breece Hall

• $39 Bijan Robinson

• $38 Jonathan Taylor

• $35 Jahmyr Gibbs

• $33 Saquon Barkley

• $31 Derrick Henry

• $29 Travis Etienne

• $29 Kyren Williams

It’s a good thing the Niners have Trent Williams at left tackle because the rest of the offensive line is suspected of entering training camp. McCaffrey won his first title run last year, but I suspect the club will try to return to the style of usage he enjoyed earlier in his career, targeting his catches heavily and trying to ensure he is tackled by the lighter defenders in the o other hand, not the thick infielders. Still, I’ll label McCaffrey as the automatic No. 1 pick, tied to Kyle Shanahan’s schemes, a team likely to win double-digit games and with tons of goal-line equity.

Taylor produced at elite level in the second half of 2023, and there’s a reasonable chance he can outplay every defender this fall. Shane Steichen was obviously a home run signing for the Colts; Indianapolis was 10th in scoring (although that finish beat other efficiency metrics) despite starting QB Anthony Richardson missing most of the year. Sure, some of the goodies will go to Richardson and not Taylor, but Taylor is still at a good age (he turned 25 in January) and the Colts have a top-10 offensive line on everyone’s drawing board. I’m going to sign Taylor for a first-round pick, and he’s a notable steal if you can get him anywhere in the second round.

Hall finished sixth in accumulated points last year (using a half-point PPR system) and was ninth in points per game – a cool return from an ACL injury. Now, he joins an offense that has noticeably improved at quarterback and on the offensive line. Hall’s receiving volume is likely to decrease with Aaron Rodgers taking over. However, the overall offensive octane increases with Rodgers’ play, as the Jets will visit the red zone much more often. Hall was second off the board in Yahoo’s early drafts, and that seems justified to me.

Henry will never be a receiver, but it’s wise to remember that Gus Edwards scored 13 times for the Ravens last year, and Henry is obviously a much more powerful runner than Edwards. Despite all of Lamar Jackson’s athleticism and skill, the Ravens don’t prefer to direct him on goal-line drives, perhaps to keep him healthy. Henry is my favorite to lead the league in rushing touchdowns, and even a silly 16-20 total wouldn’t surprise me. Henry has posted double-digit scoring in six consecutive seasons and he is now tied for the best offense of his career.

Tier 2: Legitimate Building Blocks

• $26 Isaiah Pacheco

• $25 Rachaad White

• $25 De’Von Achane

• $23Josh Jacobs

• $22James Cook

• $21 Joe Mixon

• $19 Kenneth Walker

• $18 Zamir White

If we include the playoffs, Pacheco has scored eight touchdowns in his final eight games of 2023 and has also had 31 receptions in that span. All of his opportunity metrics dropped in his second season, but just being under the umbrella of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes gives Pacheco safe ground.

Achane is a fast trader. While you typically think of him scoring from deep, Miami used him inside the 10-yard line more than I remembered. Eight of Achane’s 11 touchdowns came to this area, including five scores from the 4-yard line and inside. Although Miami’s backfield is loaded with capable runners, this team is likely to continue to run the goal line this year with volume available. Keep in mind that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both just 5-foot-9 and there isn’t a dynamic tight end on the roster. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa has just 144 rushing yards (and zero rushing touchdowns) over the last two years.

The Raiders adopted a run-and-defense model down the stretch, and White was driving much of that success. He ranked first in rushing attempts (tied with Najee Harris), third in yards, and eighth in PPR half-point scoring over that span. Alexander Mattison joins the backfield, but looks like a clear backup, not a threat for a starting role. White is not dynamic in the passing game, but he is not zero either; he had five receptions against the Colts in December. He’s one of my favorite bargain targets, and you can probably get him later in your draft than my rankings suggest.

Level 3: Talk to them, talk to them

• $17Alvin Kamara

• $16 Aaron Jones

• $16 David Montgomery

• $15 Rhomondre Stevenson

• $15James Conner

• $13 Najee Harris

• $12 Raheem Mostert

• $12 D’André Swift

• $12 Zack Moss

• $11 Tony Pollard

• $11 Devin Singletary

• $10 Jaylen Warren

• $10 Brian Robinson

• $10 Tyjae Spears

• $10 Austin Ekeler

The slew of receptions has kept Kamara’s value afloat, but his efficiency metrics are trending in the wrong direction and he enters a troubling age-29 season. The Saints rarely direct short-yardage touchdowns to Kamara, and I suspect Kendre Miller is ready to be a contributor this year after a rookie year that was largely a failure. You never say never to any player with talent, but Kamara is unlikely to be in any of my lineups.

Singletary was a surprise top-20 finisher last year, sparked by an excellent second half; Maybe he can turn the trick again with the Giants. Singletary and HC Brian Daboll worked together during their Buffalo days, and the depth chart after Singletary is paper-thin (Eric Gray was an ineffective rookie, while new rookie Tyrone Tracy was primarily a receiver in college). As long as Singletary has an affordable RB30 tag on Yahoo, I will continue to proactively target him.

Harris probably won’t be as exciting or explosive as Warren, but Harris is still the starter and the back is headed for heavier usage. Pittsburgh improved the offensive line in the draft and new OC Arthur Smith wants to run the ball on the ground. Even with Harris entering a bad season (his fifth-year option was not picked up), the Steelers will likely give him reliable volume on a weekly basis.

Level 4: some plausible advantage

• $9 Javonte Williams

• $9 Gus Edwards

• $9 Ezekiel Elliott

• $8 Jonathon Brooks

• $8Nick Chubb

• $8 Jerônimo Ford

• $6 Zach Charbonnet

• $6 Chase Brown

• $5 Trey Benson

• $5 Blake Corum

• $4 Chuba Hubbard

• $4 Antonio Gibson

• $4 Kendre Miller

Elliott’s explosiveness has dropped considerably, but he has maintained a strong conversion rate when asked to handle short-yardage work. It’s conceivable that Elliott could stumble for less than four yards per carry and still flirt with RB2 value because the Cowboys lean on him near the goal line. Sometimes it’s a matter of keeping up with the workload and not being fooled by the talent level.

We think of Sean McVay as a coach who often employs a bell cow, but the best coaches also tend to work talent according to scheme – rather than the other way around. When the Rams made a proactive pick on Blake Corum, it likely signaled that they don’t want to thrust Kyren Williams into the same heavy workload he saw last year. Corum is thicker than Williams and also a little faster; If I’m going to attack the Rams backfield, I’d prefer Corum as a speculative pick rather than Williams as an expensive, expectant pick.

Tier 5: Bargain Box RBs

• $3Tyler Allgeier

• $3 Rico Dowdle

• $3Ty Chandler

• $3 Jaleel McLaughlin

• $3 Khalil Herbert

• $3 Sea Shawn Lloyd

• $3 JK Dobbins

• $2 Roschon Johnson

• $2Ray Davis

• $2 Elias Mitchell

• $2 Audric Estimate

• $2 Mile Sanders

• $2 Clyde Edwards-Helaire

• US$2Kimani Vidal

• Dameon Piercing for $1

• $1Alexandre Mattison

• $1 Keaton Mitchell

• $1 Bucky Irving

• $1 Jaylen Wright

• $1.00 AJ Dillon

• $1 Kenneth Gainwell

• $1 Foreman D’Onta

• $1 Bigsby Tank

• $1Tyrone Tracy

• $1 Trey Sermon