Fantasy Football 2024: Year 2 NFL Players Who Could Break Out

The 2024 NFL Draft yielded many exciting rookies with the opportunity to make a significant impact on their fantasy football teams. However, just because we have some new names in the player pool doesn’t mean there isn’t some untapped potential in the 2023 class.

Here are six second-year players you won’t want to ignore in your 2024 fantasy drafts. For the sake of posterity, I omitted players like Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Puka Nacua, each of whom earned a 2024 ADP at two first round drafts so far this offseason.

I could have spent some time talking about Anthony Richardson here, but given that he was selected as QB2 off the board in our latest Yahoo mock draft, I’d say the chances of you “overlooking” him are pretty slim. So instead, I decided to shine a light on one of my favorite sleepers.

Levis had an up-and-down rookie campaign, but started off very hot, going 19 of 29 for 238 passing yards, 4 TDs and no INTs. That hype quickly faded (as did the rest of the Titans’ offense), but even so, there are some reasons to be pretty excited about the limited flashes he showed in his rookie season.

The Tennessee front office made a concerted effort to upgrade nearly every facet of the offense this offseason, signing C Lloyd Cushenberry (one of the few prized centers in this FA class) while selecting OT JC Latham with the seventh overall pick in this year’s draft. They signed former Cowboys RB Tony Pollard for another explosive element to pair with second-year RB Tyjae Spears (more on him in a moment!).

Finally, they made some massive upgrades to their receiving corps, signing free agents Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to pair with DeAndre Hopkins. Now, with Treylon Burks likely working as their WR4, this offense may have cooking gas.

Levis has an absolute arm and wasn’t afraid to show it as a rookie, leading all QBs with a 22.4% deep passing rate per PFF. Now that he finally has some receivers to catch deep balls, Levis’ fantasy upside could become a reality. Oh, and don’t forget, he also has a pretty sneaky combination of size and athleticism that could make him a viable threat in the red zone, a la Josh Allen.

Forget Kendre Miller’s rookie season; pretend this never happened. The third-round pick had a rough start to his career, beginning the off-season recovering from an ACL injury suffered late in the college football season. This recovery was complicated by a re-aggravation in pre-seasonfollowed by a hamstring injury right before Week 1 and an eventual ankle injury that forced him to miss Weeks 10-17.

When he returned in Week 18, looking healthy for the first time since his final season at TCU, fantasy managers got their first glimpse of Miller’s upside potential. Miller totaled a season-high 73 yards on 13 attempts, averaging an impressive 5.6 yards per carry. He displayed the perfect combination of explosiveness, maneuverability and evasive playmaking ability, finishing the day with a 38% missed forced tackle rate and 3.8 yards after contact per attempt – both impressive marks.

While Alvin Kamara’s role at receiver should be secure after a year in which he led all RBs with 6.6 targets per game, his decreasing efficiency could put Miller in prime position for the starting job to make his upside count. penalty at the end of the round. at his current ADP of RB55.

Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans let Derrick Henry run wild, leaving a world of opportunity for the heir apparent. Many assumed it would be Tyjae Spears’ second year, but once the Titans signed RB Tony Pollard to a three-year, $21.75 million contract in free agency, those hopes quickly dissipated.

What if we give up too quickly?

Despite the sage advice to “follow the money” when projecting touches at the running back position, I can’t help but look back at Spears’ efficiency as a rookie and wonder if there might be room for him and Pollard to play a role. behind this newly upgraded Titans offensive line.

As a rookie (and Derrick Henry’s backup), Spears put up an impressive 838 yards from scrimmage and three TDs, ranking fourth among RBs with a 50% snap share with 1.01 fantasy points per touch. Spears tied Miami Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert to lead the same group with a 26% missed forced tackle rate, while finishing sixth in yards after contact per attempt (3.15).

Spears had some medical issues coming out of Tulane, which meant he may never have been designed for a true workhorse role in the NFL. However, the efficiency he demonstrated in his rookie season should be enough to make even the most confident Pollard fans look to Spears for a late-round spot; he is currently being called up to the 12th round of 10-team leagues, according to preseason ADP.

The Green Bay Packers offense took a surprising leap forward in 2023 on the back of QB Jordan Love in his first year as a starter. Now it’s up to fantasy managers to dissect the receiving corps – full of youth and riddled with inexperience, with the Packers currently boasting the lowest average age (25.2) of any league lineup. This inexperience and lack of a true WR1 caused Love to spread his targets throughout the offense fairly evenly, without a single player exceeding the 18% target between the regular season and postseason.

Given what we saw from Love in Year 1 as a starter, there is a non-zero chance that none of these wideouts will see more than 120 targets in 2024. If that is the case, then fantasy managers would be wise to avoid investing any draft capital. significant draft on the WR corps and instead go for the lowest-cost option. That option is 2023 fifth-round pick Dontayvion Wicks, who is currently being drafted as the WR58 off the board.

Wicks has never had more than seven targets in a single game, but his advanced metrics argue for the potential to earn a more significant target share in Year 2. According to PFF, Wicks ranked in the 70th percentile or higher for wide receivers in grade reception. (77.0), separation percentage (82% open target rate), yards per route run (1.94) and yards after catch per reception (5.3).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 63-628-4 stat line as a rookie pales in comparison to the record-breaking clinic Puka Nacua put on last year, but don’t give up on JSN just yet.

Things were up and down for Smith-Njigba as a rookie. His 63.9 PFF receiving grade and 10.4-yard receiving average ranked sixth among WRs with 75 or more targets on the year. It was not necessarily used in a way that boded well for an efficient campaign, however, it tied for the third lowest aDOT (6.4) from that same cohort. The attack never fully utilized his abilities in the intermediate areas of the field to their full potential.

So what’s different about 2024? Well, lots of things. The first is the transition to a new coaching staff. The organization hired defensive guru Mike Macdonald as its new head coach, who hired Ryan Grubb (formerly of the Washington Huskies) as its new offensive coordinator. As analyst Matt Harmon points out, there could be a more effective role for Smith-Njigba in Grubb’s offense that didn’t come to fruition in his rookie year:

Smith-Njigba could also see a greater opportunity for outside routes as veteran Tyler Lockett enters his age-32 season. Lockett has shown a decline in efficiency as of late, seeing a decrease in yards per reception, yards after the catch per catch and yards per route run in each of the last two seasons. As a rookie, JSN ran just 31% of his wide split routes versus from the slot (69%) – not unlike his usage at OSU, but there is undoubtedly some untapped potential along the perimeter with proven skill in situations of contested capture.

Lastly, if you need one more reason not to give up on JSN in Year 2, remember that there was a time when he was OSU’s best and most productive receiver – while playing on the same roster as stars Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave:

Dalton Kincaid is currently being drafted as the sixth tight end on the board, but I would say based on the opportunity he will see in the Bills offense in 2024, it is still not high enough. Remember, Buffalo didn’t just lose Stefon Diggs this offseason (who accounted for 728 of Josh Allen’s 2,612 total pass attempts since 2020). They also lost veteran Gabe Davis in free agency, who served as Allen’s second-most targeted player (339) in the same period.

With that, Kincaid finds himself in an interesting position as one of the few holdovers from last season’s receiving corps to have played a significant role in carrying the relationship he built with Allen into Year 2. As a rookie, Kincaid has already demonstrated the ability to win goals; his 19.3% target rate on routes ranked second on the team behind only Stefon Diggs, while his 90.1% open target rate ranked fourth among all tight ends, per PFF.

Kincaid got off to a slow start as a rookie, but finished the year relatively hot, with five or more targets in each of the Bills’ last four games, including the playoffs, averaging just under 69 receiving yards per game over that span. Don’t be surprised if this usage increases further with the potential to gain a larger target share, and we see his upside as a receiver come to fruition in 2024.