Las Vegas is an escape from reality – unless you’re the chargers.
As the Chargers enter training camp Tuesday energized by a potentially transformative offseason, Vegas sportsbooks have made a sobering assessment of their position.
The over/under for Chargers wins this season is 8½.
The modest expectations reflect the lineup more than the new coach Jim Harbaughwho moved to the Chargers on a five-year contract after winning a national championship with Michigan.
Harbaugh has won in each of his previous coaching stints and there is a sense of inevitability that he will eventually win here as well.
“I think he’s one of the elite leaders in all of sports,” said defensive coordinator Jesse Minterwho followed Harbaugh from Michigan.
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Harbaugh’s enthusiasm took over the organization, which began to take on his personality.
“I don’t know how you can be in a room with Jim and feel uncomfortable,” general manager Joe Hortiz he said.
Hortiz added: “I love him.”
That doesn’t mean the Chargers will suddenly take off like the San Francisco 49ers did in 2011 during their first season under Harbaugh. That year, the 49ers went 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship Game. The following year, they played in the Super Bowl.
The season before Harbaugh arrived, the 49ers were 6-10.
What Harbaugh did to the 49ers cannot be overstated. The 49ers were five-time Super Bowl champions, but nine years removed from their last winning season when they hired Harbaugh. They were a franchise that was dead in the water.
The speed with which they turned into competitors was extraordinary, even by Harbaugh’s standards.
Harbaugh had a 7-4 record in his first season at the University of San Diego. He beat No. 1 USC his first year at Stanford, but the Cardinal finished just 4-8.
When Harbaugh was at Michigan, he was 0-5 against Ohio State and 3-4 against Michigan State. The Wolverines have become national champions in its ninth season under Harbaugh.
Each of Harbaugh’s teams may have followed different paths to success, but their philosophical underpinnings were similar.
“There is a style of football that we both believe in,” Minter said. “It requires stamina and physicality, the ability to win games in multiple ways.”
On offense, that means dominating the offensive line and running the ball.
This rhetoric is familiar to the Chargers. Last year, then-head coach Brandon Staley brought in a new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, with the goal of improving the ground game, only for the rushing attack to regress.
More substantial changes were made under Harbaugh and Hortiz.
The increased emphasis on the running game was exemplified by what they did on the free agent market, where their most significant financial investment was in Will Dissly, a blocking tight end.
The Chargers could have used their first-round draft pick, fifth overall, on an impact receiver like Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze. Instead, they selected offensive tackle Joe Alt.
With All-Pro Rashawn Slater on the left side of the offensive line, the 6-foot-2 Alt is expected to play on the right. The addition of Alt is expected to move Trey Pipkins III from tackle to guard.
The Chargers are expected to run the ball with 238-pounder Gus Edwards and reclamation project JK Dobbins, who are familiar with offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s system from his days with the Baltimore Ravens.
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Harbaugh hopes a consistent running game creates an environment in which quarterback Justin Herbert can thrive. Herbert will enter his fifth year in the NFL still looking for his first postseason win.
Now, the Chargers shouldn’t be humiliated like they were in their 63-21 loss in Las Vegas last year. They shouldn’t fall apart like they did when they blew a 21-point lead in a playoff loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars the year before. They shouldn’t position Herbert to have to chase the play over and over again.
This doesn’t happen with teams that effectively control the ball.
But there’s a reason the Chargers’ over/under was set at 8½ wins, as their roster feels like a work in progress.
The team’s two best receivers fell victim to the salary cap, as Keenan Allen was traded to the Chicago Bears and Mike Williams was released. Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa are elite edge rushers, but the interior of the defensive line is relatively inexperienced. The team is also weak in defense.
Harbaugh remained optimistic, calling his job with the Chargers “the best job I ever had to begin with.”
“I hope it ends like this,” he said.
Eventually it will happen.
Harbaugh has won everywhere and should win with the Chargers. Getting to that point may take time, however. Owner Dean Spanos will have to remain patient and committed.
This story originally appeared on Los Angeles Times.
