NFL Network Peter Schrager had the Giants trading up to the fourth overall selection for JJ McCarthy in his recent mock draft, saying, “I know the Giants have been reviewing all quarterback prospects diligently, as they should be.” If you are a starting quarterback and your team is working on first-round quarterbacks in the draft, you are warned; It doesn’t matter what your contract says.
Not only is Jones in a fragile situation with the organization because of his play-and-pay disparity — an entirely avoidable problem they created for themselves — but he’s also not completely healthy. Drew Lock is a great insurance policy, but the coaching staff and front office may be trying to buy themselves a longer leash by bringing in “their guy” in the top six of this draft.
I think Jones will be the Giants’ Week 1 starter, with Lock lurking in the background. This theory will be put to the test until the Giants’ first pick is announced. Jones has a theoretical advantage in fantasy because he can run and I believed that as a fantasy javelin throw at the end of last season. Unless the situation around him improves substantially, which is a tall order right now, I can’t imagine willingly taking that plunge even if a rookie passer doesn’t bring him down.
I don’t think a training camp battle between Gardner Minshew and Aiden O’Connell has the ceiling to be taken seriously, but I would put the former as the favorite to win this matchup. We could come out of draft weekend with Minshew as the heavy favorite to start Week 1 for the Raiders.
On the other hand, a rookie thrown into the mix on Day 1 or 2 complicates things.
I can’t get the scenario Daniel Jeremiah painted in our most recent Mock Draft Monday podcast out of my head. Essentially, if you lined up an alien to watch Minshew, O’Connell, and a rookie of this class (Michael Penix in your scenario) line up and throw, they would know within two reps which one of them can actually spin.
The Raiders will leave this draft with one quarterback and any level of competition could see Minshew fall from the top of the depth chart.
I find the move of the Ravens’ rebounding backfield to Los Angeles intriguing. Still, the Chargers are a virtual lock to face some players in the NFL Draft. It just gives them some security — although Dobbins is a pure wildcard at this stage because of injuries — in case the rookie isn’t ready to be an Opening Day Cow.
The board could flow in a different direction and the Chargers could lose an RB run. That could leave Dobbins and Edwards somewhat uncontested or just accompanied by a Day 3 pick in the room. And yet, the right player at the right time in Round 2 or 3 could drastically reduce one or both of those workload projections.
It’s hard to imagine the Giants’ only response to losing Saquon Barkley in free agency is to sign Devin Singletary, but he should play a big role in the room. He has been a solid contributor in the NFL and knows Brian Daboll. The coach extolled his virtues when speaking to the media.
It seems unlikely that the Giants will simply enter the season without adding another body. Despite trading for Brian Burns, New York still has a pick in each of the first three rounds thanks to Seattle’s second-round pick in the Leonard Williams deal. One of those Day 2 picks could receive a winger who will lead the team in touches and relegate Singletary to a complementary role.
I don’t even know if we can say Rico Dowdle is “on notice” because it would be a total shock if the Cowboys didn’t draft a running back at some point next week. Between Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn and recent addition Royce Freeman, they might have the lightest running back room in the NFL right now. Dallas doesn’t have a fourth-round pick, so my guess is their 56th or 87th overall selection will be used at the position barring a trade.
Whoever drafts Dallas will release fantasy draft boards. This player still has a chance to surpass some of the more highly touted wideouts from this class in the second half of first-round dynasty rookie drafts.
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
We know, based on his rhetoric last season, that Antonio Pierce wants to establish a tough game as this team’s identity. Despite this, the Raiders let Josh Jacobs walk and only added Alexander Mattison as a backup. Is this a sign of faith in Zamir White, who shined last season, or the precursor to the key addition coming via the NFL Draft?
The Raiders have a pick in each round, but could use some of their picks to maneuver the draft board for a franchise quarterback. If they sacrifice picks, it could allow White to escape the draft without much added competition on Day 2.
The current ADP in early top ball drafts indicates that the fantasy community believes this is Chuba Hubbard’s starting job to lose. Recent comments from the coaching staff paint the situation as more open:
Miles Sanders has a lot of ground to make up after a disappointing performance last season, but this is a fresh start with a new team. On the other hand, Carolina could add another back to the rotation that puts these two veterans on the back burner.
This might be my spiciest name added to the mix.
Peter Schrager wrote in his mock draft that he was all but willing to guarantee the Rams would draft an offensive player if they kept their first-round pick this year. If you’re not familiar, Schrager and McVay are close and even hosted a podcast together on Ringer a few years ago. Schrager has the Rams running after this analysis, which is plausible, but I can also see them pursuing a taller pass catcher than we think.
The Rams have a rising star in Puka Nacua alongside Kupp, but the veteran receiver is at risk for injury at this stage of his career. The depth behind them isn’t ideal, even if Demarcus Robinson has provided them with some good moments in 2023. Tight end Tyler Higbee could miss training camp at the very least after a serious injury late last season. The pass-catcher position is a necessity on this roster.
Ultimately, I think Kupp would still play a significant role and command a large share of targets in this offense. However, a Round 1 or 2 rookie added to the mix would certainly make me project his production a little more conservatively than in previous years.
The Lions will tell anyone who will listen that they have all the faith in the world in their former first-round wide receiver. But right now, Jameson Williams’ career doesn’t portray the image of a reliable player. It would be hard to blame them if they didn’t want to enter the season with him as their undisputed WR2 behind Amon-Ra St. Brown following Josh Reynolds’ departure.
It wouldn’t be a total shock to see the Lions land a pure perimeter receiver at the 29th overall selection, but they have bigger fish to fry from a needs standpoint. Still, even a Day 2 rookie who could push for playing time would be problematic for Jameson Williams’ target projection. He doesn’t have much room for error considering that even in a best-case scenario, he’ll be fifth on the team in pure opportunities no matter what, behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and the running back duo.
The Chiefs already needed to add a wide receiver, but the legal situation with Rashee Rice now opens up the possibility even more. If Rice were a player you could count on to be available, they could focus their attention on pure outfielders to fill the X receiver role. Now, with Rice as a question mark, they could justifiably pursue any type of player in position.
Rice was already prepared to face competition from Marquise Brown as a mid laner. If the Chiefs draft another receiver who excels primarily in that area, we could be looking at a target crunch where Rice will need to maintain some of the extreme efficiency of his rookie season. The writers made the same mistake counting Christian Watson after his rookie season.
The vast majority of pro-Pickens arguments in fantasy this season, aside from his own play, will be based on the participation target. With Diontae Johnson gone, he projects a dominant portion of the available air volume. The problem is, we know this offense will lead the league in rushing attempts. Everything about the way they approached this offseason shows they will be headed in that direction.
Therefore, if another wide receiver, especially one who specializes in separation, comes in to capture looks in the short and intermediate areas, that will be a problem for Pickens’ target projection. There are plenty of scenarios where we come out of draft weekend putting Pickens back into the high-ceiling but volatile mid- to low-range WR2 range.
I remain one of the last holdouts at Rashod Bateman’s gathering of truth defenders. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that some members of the Ravens organization attend meetings and hang out in the back. That theory will be put to the test come draft weekend.
The fantasy industry will refuse to acknowledge him, but right now, Bateman is the only starting option for this team at the X receiver position after Odell Beckham Jr. He was useful on third downs late in the season and got good separation . Are the Ravens willing to bet that he will stay healthy and get his production back on track to match the film’s route? We’ll have a good answer on that by the night of April 26th if they don’t try a deep receiver class.
Whenever a receiver has poor route metrics, we always need to try to divide the problem across the “pie of blame” between the player himself, the environment, and the quarterback’s play. I believe Jahan Dotson should take a slice of that pie, but it is by far the smallest slice of the three.
Washington will upgrade its quarterback position in the first round of the NFL Draft. I can tell myself a story where Dotson fits in stylistically with Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye, especially if he runs more routes from the slot, his most natural position. So that’s a win for him and Terry McLaurin. However, Washington has five second- and third-round picks and has few receivers behind its top two picks. We’ll see how much faith this new team and front office have in the former first-round pick’s film based on how hard they attack the pass-catching position and what wide receiver archetype they pursue.
After racking up 91 looks in 16 games during his rookie season and the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, there will be some ready to argue that Dalton Kincaid is the favorite to lead this team in targets. It’s possible, but we rarely see a tight end be the leader from a volume standpoint in NFL offenses. The delta between him and Curtis Samuel and/or Khalil Shakir may be closer than their individual fantasy rankings suggest.
This picture would become even cloudier if Buffalo added a wide receiver prospect at the top of the draft, which seems inevitable.
Certain prospect tiers could be added and not delve too deeply into Kincaid’s workload. If they simply add a potential boundary receiver like Javon Baker in Round 3 or later, that won’t be much of a threat on paper. If Buffalo adds a Round 1 receiver, much less trades for a prospect, that’s a different story.
The Bills are certainly happy with what they got from Kincaid last year and he will play a big role on the team. However, purely from a fantasy standpoint, he could come out of the first or second round on much shakier ground.
