Few words scare Fantasy Football managers more than “running back by committee.” This dreaded depth chart outcome happens when teams choose to rotate between several different running backs in their offense rather than having one bellcow receive the majority of the volume.
Running back committees are notoriously difficult to navigate in fantasy football, as we often have little information about which players will receive enough volume to be fantasy relevant. In this article, I’ll look at some of the NFL’s most confusing and crowded running back situations to get a better idea of players to keep an eye on during the rest of the offseason.
The Dolphins have a unique running back situation. Normally, you would expect the player who finishes RB2 overall in fantasy football to be the expected leader the following year. However, that is not the case, as veteran Raheem Mostert (the RB23) finds himself well behind potential starter De’Von Achane (RB12) in this season’s drafts.
Achane was no slouch last year – in 11 healthy games, he rushed for 7.8 yards per carry and was the RB4 in fantasy points per game. Basically, by every advanced running back metric – above-expected rushing yards, yards after contact per carry, breakaway run percentage, etc., Achane was the best running back in football, although it’s worth mentioning that he was remarkably less productive when he returned from a Medial collateral ligament sprain that he suffered in the middle of the season.
Achane is expected to take on a bigger role in his second year and become the Dolphins’ leader, but that is far from confirmed. In fact, Mostert is listed as the starting running back on the Dolphins’ unofficial depth chart right now. It will be important to watch Achane and Mostert’s performance and usage in training camp to get a clearer idea of how they will split their time. I can’t imagine the Dolphins risking injury by giving Achane a full three-down workload because of how valuable he is to their offense. A big part of Mostert’s production last season was due to his league-leading 21 touchdowns, and I expect him to maintain his role as the Dolphins’ goal-line running back this year.
My predictions for the 2024 Dolphins backfield
Put it all together and I’m confident Mostert will see enough volume to be a weekly RB2/FLEX play, making him a value at his current ADP of 66th overall. At 32, Mostert obviously has health issues of his own, but he’s late enough in drafts where his upside outweighs the potential floor.
I completely understand the enthusiasm behind Achane, as he has league-winning home run upside. I don’t mind taking him at his 30th ADP overall, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him as my RB1 because of his injury concerns and potential lack of volume. I would look to pair Achane with a top-tier running back in the first two rounds, like Jonathan Taylor or Saquon Barkley, to ensure some consistency on your team at the position every week.
The Titans made a notable change to their backfield this season, replacing franchise cornerstone Derrick Henry with former Cowboys running back Tony Pollard. Pollard is coming off a somewhat disappointing season in Dallas, finishing as RB22 in fantasy points per game despite being a second-round draft pick last summer.
Pollard was capable of over 1,000 rushing yards, but only ran for four yards per carry and was ineffective at the goal line. He finished outside the top 25 among running backs in yards after contact per attempt and breakaway rush percentage after finishing in the top three in both metrics in 2022. The fractured fibula that Pollard suffered in January 2023 clearly cost him gave him a big breakout, and it remains to be seen whether he can regain the big-play ability that made him so valuable in fantasy.
Pollard joins sophomore Tyjae Spears in the Tennessee backfield. Spears had a quietly productive rookie year, totaling 838 yards from scrimmage as the Titans’ No. 2 running back behind Derrick Henry. Spears was particularly excellent as a pass catcher; he saw 70 targets on the season, ranking ninth among all running backs.
My predictions for the Titans backfield in 2024
Going into 2024, I expect Pollard and Spears to be in a standard timeshare, with Pollard as the two-down running back and Spears as the third-down, receiving option. Truth be told, I wouldn’t be aggressively attacking any of them in these fantasy roles this year. Pollard, who is the RB29 in ADP, feels he is poised to have another high-carry, low-efficiency season in a mediocre Titans offense.
Spears, on the other hand, will probably be a great PPR FLEX play at this RB32’s ADP, but I can’t imagine him getting enough volume to have a real ceiling. This situation is still worth monitoring because Pollard or Spears could show up during training camp and become the clear starter, but if they are splitting the workload, I don’t trust Will Levis and the Titans offense enough to support either one of them. Pollard or Spears for consistent fantasy production.
The Broncos have perhaps the toughest backfield in the NFL. You could reasonably argue that one of four different guys could be this year’s starter – Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estimé.
Williams is currently being drafted at the top of the group at RB31 and is listed as a starter on the Broncos’ unofficial depth chart. He struggled last year in his first season after a torn ACL, totaling just 774 yards on 217 carries and was clearly lacking his trademark tackle-breaking ability.
Perine specialized as a pass catcher for the Broncos last season, hauling in 50 catches for 455 yards. Based on Broncos practice reports, it appears one of Williams or Perine will be cut before the season starts. I would bet that Perine would be released as he is five years older than Williams and would save the Broncos an additional US$1.8 million.
McLaughlin was widely used as a change of pace last season. He saw about 4-5 runs per game and I expect him to maintain a similar role in 2024. Estimé, a fifth-round rookie, is a 221-pound bowling ball who was a big game machine at Notre Dame. Rookie running backs signed as late as Estimé typically don’t get much playing time right away, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he carves out a more significant role later in the season.
My 2024 Predictions for the Broncos Backfield
They cut Perine and entered the season with Williams as the expected starter and McLaughlin in a change-of-pace role like last year. However, if Williams continues to struggle, I don’t think the Broncos will hesitate to replace him with Estimé, who looks like a prototypical two-back, red-zone monster.
I’ll be keeping an eye on Broncos training camp over the next few weeks to see how things actually play out. As for your fantasy drafts, a good rule of thumb for these confusing running back committees is to just take the player to the latest draft. This is especially the case with a below-average offense like Denver, as even in the best case scenario, the starter in this offense will not be a weekly top-10 option.
Based on that logic, I predict that Estimé, the current RB65 draft pick, will be the player you want in this Denver backfield.
Quick hitter predictions
Dallas Cowboys
In Dallas, I expect Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle to be in a similar situation to Pollard and Spears, with Elliott the lead back and Dowdle rotating. I don’t mind taking Elliott on his ADP of RB36 in this role as he was actually solid with the Patriots last season and could see an increase in touchdown production now that he’s back in the elite offense.
Washington commanders
In Washington, Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler will likely split time equally in a cost-effective version of what the Lions have with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. I don’t want to have anything to do with Robinson (RB28) or Ekeler (RB35) this season in fantasy, as I don’t expect the Commanders’ offense to be productive with rookie Jayden Daniels at center.
Cleveland Browns
In Cleveland, Nick Chubb’s health is something to keep an eye on. He was placed on the puppy list before training camp and may not be ready to go in Week 1. If that’s the case, backup Jerome Ford would become a valuable starting running back in fantasy, especially now that Kareem Hunt is no longer on the team.
